The ferrous complex resumed normal programming yesterday after Monday’s whacko action. Iron ore spot fell. Paper eased. Steel launched to new highs:
That makes a lot more sense than action the day before given Li Keqiang’s statements.
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China continues to suck in lots of ore, importing 102.11mt in March:
That was up bigly from a pandemic impacted March 2020 but the rolling annual second derivative is still falling.
There’s nothing particularly exciting about this. Late Q1 is always seasonally strong. April will be good too. May prices will sink as Chinese rains disrupt construction.
The more important figures yesterday was credit:
The Chinese credit impulse is crashing and what follows is automatic:
Ceterus Paribus it’s obvious what comes next.