The ferrous complex soared to new highs again yesterday with spot charging, paper up more overnight but steel sagging:
There is doubtless strong demand driving this. And, who knows, perhaps we’ll take another shot at $200. As well, the falling USD is arcing up all commodities again. And, as said many times, April is a strong month for iron ore:
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But May is typically very weak as southern Chinese rains stall construction projects. We still have some big months of US inflation to come through as well which ought to firm up US yields and its currency.
If prices do not pull back sharply over the next six weeks then that will tell us that the underlying demand for dirt is still overwhelming supply.
I still expect that equation to shift in H2 as China slows and supply rebounds.