Commodity prices go boom as inflation stalks

It’s a golden time for commodity bulls with almost every major primary product putting in yearly or even decade highs. Iron ore is cracking through an 11 year high, about to spike through $200 spot prices:

Iron ore price

Iron ore prices are at an 11-year high.

Crude oil is almost back to its pre COVID highs, tripling in the process:

Crude oil prices

Crude oil prices have surged.

Meanwhile copper has more than doubled since crashing below the $2 level at the start of the COVID pandemic:

Copper prices

Copper prices have more than doubled.

Other soft commodities are going ballistic, with lumber prices at record highs:

Soft commodities

Lumber prices are booming.

And wheat also shooting higher:

Wheat prices

Wheat prices are booming.

The Baltic Dry Index has recovered and then some from the sideways stuck Suez situation, now breaking out to a decade high:

Baltic dry index

Baltic Dry index has rocketed.

There’s your inflation – and its starting to show up in the US which is pushing through the biggest infrastructure stimulus package in history to navigate the post COVID pandemic. Tonight’s Fed meeting will be critical to navigating this golden period of “low” inflation, high economic growth and record high stock prices. Australia may well be benefiting from the iron ore carry, but if we get actual inflation, what can the RBA do in the face of trillions of low interest rate mortgages?

Not much else to dig up to fill that hole!

Latest posts by Chris Becker (see all)

Comments

  1. All of this is just short term supply chain shock stuff. Not (long-term) demand growth nor is it a massive shortage of long term supply.

    Copper, iron ore, lumber, wheat will still be mined, cut, harvested and used or consumed just as they were in 2019 once the whole thing settles down again.

    There’s no more warm bodies needing houses, cars, food in 2021 than in 2019.