China singles out real estate for slowing

Over the holiday period, the FT had another confirmation piece of the MB view that China is set to slow, particularly in the most commodity-intensive sector of real estate:

  • PBOC has instructed banks to cut credit availability.
  • Macquarie says concerns about virus-impacted growth are gone and structural reform has resumed.
  • Chinese real estate sales surged in January and February year on year.

Sales and investment may have surged year on year but that is immensely flattered by base effects. More importantly, floor area starts actually fell compared to 2019 (blue circle makes the spot):

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