Vaccinated US outpaces locked down Europe

For a few months now I have posited a global economic circumstance called “Biden’s America First”. It is one in which the US fiscal and vaccine advantages materially outstrip Europe leading to higher growth, inflation and yields. In turn this will be deflationary for the world as the US dollar comes to dominate again.

Goldman provides an Effective Lockdown Index that further boosts this case:

Our global GS Effective Lockdown Index (ELI) – a combination of official restrictions and actual mobility data from 46 economies, weighted by PPP GDP –continued to ease in the second week of March across all major regions.

Using our estimated relationship between the GS ELI and real activity, we estimate an ELI-implied hit of ~7% to the level of global GDP in the second week of March versus a peak 20% hit in mid-April last year. However, the actual impact is likely smaller than estimated using the historical ELI-GDP relationship, due to a potential decline in the sensitivity of consumer and firm behavior to policy restrictions.

The US is going to hurtle out of its virus constraints much faster than Europe which is still reliant upon lockdowns as its vaccine rollout stutters owing to mismanagement and dependence upon AstraZeneca.

Australia has thrown its lot in with Europe, including the vaccine mismanagement, and we too will begin to fall behind the global economic recovery.

David Llewellyn-Smith
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Comments

  1. Goldstandard1MEMBER

    So the US has always been bad with supporting people, and very good at supporting big corporations and specifically BIG PHARMA.
    In this case they allowed huge infections (for which the real effects won’t be known for 2 years ), many deaths and probably cival unrest as a consequence……but can absolutely roll out the drugs quick!
    Seems to be par for the course for the US of A!

    • Allowed huge infections? Don’t attribute to malice that which can easily be attributed to ignorance. This is tinfoil.

      • Goldstandard1MEMBER

        Doing nothing can sometimes be very damaging. I’m not saying it was malice neccessarilly, just not affirmative Vs being amazing at the Big Pharma play.

        • Well the UK spent £37Bn on test and trace, and it was utterly useless. Mass vaccination is the only way.

      • SoCalSurfCreeperMEMBER

        Infections were huge but they were most other places as well, including all of Europe and South America, Africa etc. this is the very essence of the word pandemic. Pan meaning ‘all’ and demic from Demos meaning ‘people’ All People. It’s even blowing up again in Canada. And now PNG. Maybe US vaccination rates are enough to slow it. Time will tell soon enough.

      • To many Australians it’s like the US is the only country affected by this virus and that blame lies with 100% Trump despite being hounded by the Democrats for shutting the border to China early on.

        The fact is Americans seem more resilient than Australians and prepared to accept the small risk to their lives.

  2. Australia and NZ should be miles ahead if we actually made anything. Instead the populace, politicians and government bureaucracy is too busy pumping up 20% annual growth in housing to focus on meaningful change. We really did waste this crisis as a country. It seems most countries did to some extent but at least they are using it to refine supply chains….a problem Australia doesn’t need to worry about unless we run out of timber, concrete and colorbond sheets.