Yesterday I noted that the latest research on vaccine efficacy coming out of the UK is very encouraging. The vaccines are working better than expected from lab tests and once fully immunised even virus variants are heavily retarded. Today Nordea looks at the timetablele for rollout and reopening:
Key takeaways from the analysis
35-37% of the population needs to be vaccinated before a major breakthrough is seen based on the Israeli case – UK will reach the threshold very soon, US in early April and continental Europe in early May.
Nordic countries are better than EU averages when it comes to administering the vaccine roll-out
Most virologists are too pessimistic by now, and re-openings will likely be swifter than anticipated.The Israeli case–35-37% of the population had a vaccine before the breakthrough Israel has by far been the country leading the vaccine rollout and by the time of writing more than half of the population has received the first dose and a third the second dose. With the risk group and elderly almost completely vaccinated they have begun their reopening by the 21st of February where they also launched a Green Pass for vaccinated people. The Green Pass gives vaccinated fewer restrictions during the reopening, a strategy that without a doubt will attract criticism.
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David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal.
He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.
