Crikey these markets are radical. Readers will know that I have been on the case of the new “taper tantrum” for many months. But the last few days have seen it come off bigly as oil has corrected heavily. So, where are we now with yields and wider asset prices in what we have come to call the uber-accelerated “amphetamine cycle”?
Leading us off is Nordea which has been a great job on this:
It is important to understand that the slump of 2020 was a disease-driven supply shock and not a recession where economic imbalances got laid bare as central banks tightened policy by hiking rates. From a macro perspective, 2020 was nothing like the financial crisis, after which it took 10 years to close the output gaps created by the crisis. This time, as soon as the root cause of the supply shock is cured, which will be very soon, the economies can be expected to get back to the starting point very quickly.
The full text of this article is available to MacroBusiness subscribers
David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal.
He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.
