The iron ore price complex was mixed on March 24, 2021 with spot prices down but paper prices jumping overnight. Steel has not updated:
I think we have our answer here in terms of whether or not environmental restrictions will crash iron ore prices in the short term and it is “no”. The thing is, lifting the steel price by cutting production delivers better margins to mills and they up output plus restock raw materials.
So, I remain of the view that 2021 prices will revolve around three key factors:
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- Chinese retocking which is now strengthening.
- Normalisation of global supply which is happening and will accelerate.
- Fading Chinese demand as it tightens and catch-up growth passes.