Iron ore rebounded on March 16, 2020. Paper stalled overnight. Steel fell:
Nothing much new today. I am increasingly convinced that we’ve seen the peak in prices for this cycle now. The bid should be strong for another six weeks before the May slump but a range of factors are mitigating against further price rises and strengthening the case for price falls through H2:
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China is tightening credit with a possible sharp fall in building ahead as catch-up growth ends.
China’santi-pollution push has resumed with scrap rising.
The US dollar is rising as America takes an indomitable growth, yield and inflation lead post-pandemic.
The one possible upside at this juncture is the Biden infrastructure package which would deliver a new lump of steel demand. But I do not expect it to be particularly steel-intensive given its likely focus on green tech, roads and rail.
Barring another shock of some kind, the peak appears to be for iron ore this cycle with a big downside ahead.
David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal.
He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.
