Daily iron ore price update (scraptastrophe again)

Iron ore prices for March 1st, 2020 fell across the complex as weak Chinese PMIs weighed:

The steel PMI was out and rebounded:

New orders are clearly trending down despite a better month. Steel Orbis has more:

I still expect strong pricing for a few more months. But remember that the Chinese credit impulse peaked two months ago and:

Looking longer-term, via Bloomie:

Nippon Steel Corp., Japan’s top producer, is shifting its focus to recycling the metal as ambitious net-zero emission targets intensify a race to develop cleaner steel.

Taking steps toward decarbonization is one of the pillars of Nippon Steel’s mid-term business plan starting April, Executive Vice President Katsuhiro Miyamoto said in an interview on Friday. As part of its efforts, the company is working on research to build much larger electric-arc furnaces, which are used to make steel from scrap, to mass produce the metal, he said.

By 2030, I expect Chinese output to push towards 30% scrap output, up from 20% today, which, if output peaks, will look like this for iron ore:

200mt of Chinese demand goes ‘poof’ over the next decade.

David Llewellyn-Smith
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