Chartfest – 7 March, 2021

 

 

 

…Terra Specufestor….

Australia – Job Ads

 

 

 

Australia – Building Approvals

 

 

 

Australia – dwelling values

 

 

 

Australia – Dwelling price growth

 

 

 

Australia – First Home Buyer Commitments

 

 

 

Australia – Housing Finance

 

 

 

Australia – State and Commonwealth Covid19 outlays

 

 

 

Australia – Public & Private Demand drivers

 

 

 

Australia – Household Savings

 

 

 

Australia – Real GDP growth

 

 

 

Australia – M3 minus Real GDP and CPI

 

 

 

Australia – trimmed mean inflation 

 

 

 

Australia – The RBA & Inflation 

 

 

 

Australia – Exports, major commodities

 

 

 

Australia – exports by sector

 

 

 

Australia – Net Exports

 

 

 

Australia – Current and planned gas pipelines

 

 

 

Australia – Unemployment benefits and poverty 

 

 

 

Australia – Unemployment benefit & Global comparison

 

 

 

Americas

 

 

 

United States – perceptions of news veracity

 

 

 

United States – 30yr Mortgages and Home prices 

 

 

 

United States – Home borrowing and credit quality

 

 

 

United States – homes for sale 

 

 

 

United States  – Consumer Cash Sources

 

 

 

United States – total debt

 

 

 

United States – Federal Debt

 

 

 

United States – M2 and GDP

 

 

 

United States – UST Yields and GDP deflator

 

 

 

United States – retail spending, selected segments

 

 

 

United States-Covid19 related job losses by income cohort

 

 

 

United States – unemployment

 

 

 

United States – wealth distribution 

 

 

 

United States – Wealth and Race

 

 

 

United States – Wealth and Education

 

 

 

United States – Electricity Generation

 

 

 

United States – gas production

 

 

 

United States – Senate control by generation

 

 

 

United States – Federal Reserve composition

 

 

 

Asia

 

 

 

Japan – BoJ Balance Sheet

 

 

 

China – Central Budget Sectors

 

 

 

China – Credit Growth

 

 

 

China – Imports from South Korea, Taiwan & Japan

 

 

 

China – Semi Conductor Companies

 

 

 

ASEAN Banks – NPLs and Net Profit

 

 

 

Europe

 

 

 

European Government 10yr Yields

 

 

 

Europe – Northern and Southern GDP Per Capita

 

 

 

Europe – Consumer Confidence & Retail Sales

 

 

 

Europe – Bank loan growth & maturity

 

 

 

Europe – Euro core public debt

 

 

 

Germany – Foreign Factory Orders, Industrial Production & GDP 

 

 

 

Greece – GDP

 

 

 

Norway – House Prices

 

 

 

Russia – International Reserves & Brent Oil Price 

 

 

 

 

Capital Markets

 

 

 

US 10Yrs & S&P500

 

 

 

Asset Classes & Historical Trend

 

 

 

AUD & AU10Yr Yield

 

 

 

Major Global Central Banks Total Assets

 

 

 

Copper-Gold & US10Yr

 

 

 

Major 10Yr Yields

 

 

 

USD Debt Issuance by Non US Banks

 

 

 

Macroprudential Relaxation…..

 

 

 

S&P 500 PE Forwards & adjusted US rates

 

 

 

Commodities

 

 

 

Agricultural Commodities

 

 

 

Australia Barley

 

 

 

China Barley Imports

 

 

 

Barley Stocks

 

 

 

China Feedstuff Imports

 

 

 

Food Commodity Indices

 

 

 

Oats I

 

 

 

Oats II

 

 

 

Russia – Australia & Asian Wheat

 

 

 

Sorghum

 

 

 

Cobalt

 

 

 

Copper

 

 

 

Copper II

 

 

 

Crude Destinations

 

 

 

India Coal Imports

 

 

 

Oil Capex

 

 

 

Australia Iron Ore Exports

 

 

 

Australia LNG Exports

 

 

 

Renewable Inputs

 

 

 

Renewable Commodity Inputs

 

 

 

Seaborne Iron Ore

 

 

 

US Crude Output

 

 

 

Global Macro

 

 

 

Container Rates – Selected Routes

 

 

 

Consumer Spend on Food – Many Nations

 

 

 

Global Food Prices

 

 

 

Debt to GDP

 

 

 

Corporate Tax Rates

 

 

 

Global Energy Generation

 

 

 

Major Economies – Disposable Income & Unemployment

 

 

 

World Real Exports and Composite Indicator

 

 

 

2020 GDP Growth

 

 

 

Real GDP – Eurozone and US

 

 

 

CNY and SWIFT Payments

 

 

 

…and furthermore…

 

 

 

Defence (Defense) Budgets 

 

 

 

Biggest Exports

 

 

 

Stock Value & Stock Price

 

 

 

2019 v 2020 CO2 Emissions

 

 

 

CO2 Emissions – Selected Nations since 1990

 

 

 

COVID19 Vaccine coverage

 

 

 

Electricity Generation costs – 2009 – 2019

 

 

 

Global Residential Real Estate

 

 

 

Fossil Fuel related deaths

 

 

 

Happy Countries 

 

 

 

Paid Leave and Public Holidays

 

 

 

Median Age by Continent

 

 

 

Solar and Wind Potential

 

 

 

Covid19 Tracing Apps – confidence in

 

 

 

Union Membership – selected nations

 

 

World Population

 

 

 

Gunnamatta
Latest posts by Gunnamatta (see all)

Comments

  1. A highly placed source in the Surf Coast region told me late in the week that Mrs & Miss Gunnamatta will be returning to Geelong this weekend, and that Gunna was apparently grassed by one of his work colleagues for adding to the public discourse at Macrobusiness in such a way as to suggest he was critical of the government.

    Thanks for your contribution G, I am glad the family will be back as a single unit.

      • Add me to that , good to hear family back together and

        “Gunna was apparently grassed by one of his work colleagues for adding to the public discourse at Macrobusiness in such a way as to suggest he was critical of the government.”

        He should or told them ” I don’t hold the hose mate”.

  2. ‘It’s a 6 lane highway in to a market … and a goat track on the way out’ … Kyle Bass

    More Australians Consider Selling Their Home in Red Hot Market … James Thornhill … Bloomberg

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-03-05/more-australians-consider-selling-their-home-in-red-hot-market?srnd=premium-asia

    • House prices posted biggest gain in 17 years in February
    • Low interest rates, improving economy are buoying market

    More than a third of Australian homeowners are planning to sell in the next five years, according to a report by Westpac Banking Corp., as they look to cash in on a booming market driven by low mortgage rates and an improving economy.

    The report showed 35% of households surveyed were considering selling, more than double the amount seen prior to the pandemic. More than one in ten were already in the process of putting their property on the market, or planning to do so in the next twelve months. … read more via hyperlink above …

    • Quite logical and no surprise as in five years most of the pre WWII oldies will have departed and most if not all baby boomers will be transitioning to &/or in retirement needing to modify their prime investment i.e. their house; needing liquidity and/or downsizing (not to forget potential of ditching investment properties, namely apartments).

  3. Corporate Tax Rates

    Rishi Sunak’s budget brings first corporation tax rise since 1974

    • Ritualised Forms

      I think the Poms are just earlier down the path that probably every other nation will follow……

      The Great Age of reducing taxes, reducing accountability to the societies within which they operate, and promoting the cult of managerialism has crafted nothing but a psychopath infested ‘elite’ buying out political processes around the world and playing off societies against one another in the name of profits which are shared with nobody but the 1%, and gouging out juicy sinecures on the public teat through the outsourcing of public services and the embedding of corporate within them which have loyalties only to profit maximisation for the benefit of that 1%. It has had a dream run….

      Look at the range of complete nutters and opinionated, rationale and lived experience defying ‘experts’ magnates, academics, politicians all too quick to exhort something for the punter to do, stashing a vested interest behind that exhortation. Around the world they have turned the media into a meaningless drivel spouting plaything of the wealthy, trashed education, and indebted whole generations and societies, while turning housing into a speculative asset class like no other, and turning any employment in large organisations into an exercise in rationale suspension and psychopath obeisance.

      Sure they will want to continue the golden age forever, but it floated face down in the pool in the years after the GFC. The great Covid experience is just another pillow being held tightly over the belief in what has been by the people who have lived through it. Taxing the bastards is just a start.

      • Jumping jack flash

        There is a way out and it is very simple.
        It increasingly looks ĺike they’re going to miss their opportunity and we’re going to end up back on the path where 2019 was taking us – somewhere near Japan, but with wage theft so it would be much, much worse.

  4. SweeperMEMBER

    That PCE v 10Y chart. Bond holders got away with murder from 82 to 2003. 6% plus real yields. And people complain interest rates were too low.
    That is why there is so much debt, interest rates were far too high.

  5. SweeperMEMBER

    Keep listening to fund managers predicting inflation.
    First thought is always.. how do they make money? Been wrong since forever.

    • Ben Hunt (Epsilon Theory) closed his fund in 2010 (?) much to the dismay of his investors. He told them whilst CBs were printing money that there was no point paying any fund commission to underperform the stock market.

  6. boomengineeringMEMBER

    Map of Aust gas pipes. And when they are finished with why not pump water through them, from the wettest parts of Aust to the driest. And the pumping stations are already there along the way with only minor adjustments needed.

    • Great idea BE.
      Can you imagine how long it will take for the gas rentiers to be done with their blood extraction from our continent however.

    • Arthur Schopenhauer

      There’s a couple of things Boomer, evaporation rates and salt.

      The driest parts of Australia are really salty, very old, very flat, sea beds. Watering them brings salt to the surface very quickly, then you have to drain the salt.

      The other thing, can water be delivered at a rate faster than the evaporation/transpiration rate? (Answer: not in summer.)

    • But why? What’s the end use? Uneconomic for most purposes, probably unwise for all. Maybe detention or quarantine!

  7. Thanks for the great chart pack, pity it’s missing the charts that tell the most important story as far as average Australians are concerned.
    Yep, I’m referring to the Harvard / MIT Atlas of Economic complexity again
    https://atlas.cid.harvard.edu/countries/14
    Open it, please do, and please look at the graph of Economic complexity and understand what this graph is really telling us.
    It’s not some abstract concept, because it is telling us a simple story of a country where the economic value of it’s labour force is in terminal decline.
    Think about it, what is Economic complexity and connectivity if not a measure of the willingness of other Australian’s and people outside Australia to employ our human capital?
    That’s what we’re indirectly graphing and that’s what the graph showing that we’ve been in terminal decline since at least as far back as 1995, is really showing us.

    Look at this rankings graph
    https://atlas.cid.harvard.edu/rankings (enter Australia)

    Today we’re ranked somewhere in the low 90’s out of 133 countries (yep we’re that bad) down from 55th in 1995
    This is pathetic were clustered (and yes that’s the right word) with countries like Mali, Paraguay and Morocco but before you congratulate yourself take some time to check out the trend lines The only other countries with trend graphs anywhere near as ugly as Australia’s are South Africa (63) and Russia (64)..yep they’re both still about 25 positions ahead of us.
    For me these graphs tell a story of the failure of our capital structure to identify and fund the development of cutting edge Australian businesses which goes hand in hand with our failure to educate/train Australians.
    It’s the decline in the global value of our Aussie human capital that is really on display here. This embodies our collective failure to educate, identify and capitalize on 21st business opportunities, that’d be opportunities that leverage our human capital, as opposed to opportunities that simply rape our land.

    • Ritualised Forms

      Pretty much agree with your points there. Australia is going to have to rebuild its economic complexity or resign itself to becoming an aged care facility with mining/agriculture sideline.

      On Russia (which also has issues) you may care to note the Macro position and reserves in the chart in the Europe section. A corrupt dictatorship it may be, but it could lay some claim to rock solid finances.

      • I don’t think that most Aussies really understand what our nations Complexity and Connectivity analysis tell us about the capabilities of our Labour force.
        Let’s give an example which maybe explains what I’m talking about.
        Back in the late 1990’s several Australians were very active in the IEEE802.11 working group, these Aussies formed a company (Radiata) and designed one of the first working 802.11a chipsets. The intellectual property behind this was developed several years earlier by the CSIRO and the company combined several experienced semiconductor Industry professionals with a couple of Academics and leveraged this CSIRO knowhow (IP).
        The result was a company that was at the top of its game and was therefore invited to participate in and indeed even lead the 802.11g (2.4Ghz wifi) working group.
        We all know the outcome of this was that the so called .11g working group proposed that the new specification be more or less a copy of the Radiata .11a (5GHz) design. This put Radiata in the drivers seat and the legend, that Australia invented wifi, was born.
        This is economic complexity and connectivity at work. This is what the business end of success in these area’s looks like. It’s called respect and it is ultimately the fuel which drives most business decisions.
        Australian RF engineers were globally respected and Radiata along with CSIRO had assembled a world class team, the result was that the world adopted some homespun technology.
        That was the 1990’s when we were rated at around 60th globally for industrial / economic complexity (but were much higher in specific areas like RF communications)
        Today Australia is around 90th in economic complexity and whatever lead we had in the RF domain has long since evaporated. Our industrial economic peers are now countries like Mali and Laos.
        So ask yourself, Is there anyway today that a company from Laos could shape the world of next generation WiFI or Cellphone design? No is the obvious answer, they wouldn’t even have a seat at the table where these decisions were being made. In short Laos would have to take what it was given, unfortunately the same analysis applies to modern day Australia.
        We simply wouldn’t have a seat at the table, we would not have the opportunity to shape any next generation technology decisions because we haven’t earned this right.
        This is the Human side of Complexity and Connectivity and indirectly it is what’s shaping the structure of Australia’s 21st century labour force,

    • Arthur Schopenhauer

      Yep. There’s a deep myth propagated through Australian Economics Departments that Australia can only do “high value added” manufacturing. What they are really saying is, Australia should only do highly profitable manufacturing.

      This mindset completely misunderstands the nature of making stuff. High value, high profit manufacturing is built on a foundation of low profit commodity manufacturing. A country needs the industrial infrastructure for nails, paint and plasterboard, before it can hope to make more sophisticated items. You can’t learn manufacturing from a text book. It’s learning by doing, for multiple generations.

      This point is often lost on the publishers of this Blog and completely lost on the Treasury Department.

      It’s going to be a long road back to where Australia once was.

      • The Ford Ranger was designed in Australia and is every tradies SOP vehicle of choice (Yes you need a 70k Ute to carry nails, paint and plasterboard).

        Ignore the fact it’s made in Thailand and we can claim great successes in the ongoing Australian dream of building houses to prosperity.

      • Dead right. The formula and other case studies can be found in: How Asia Works By Joe Studwell

  8. haroldusMEMBER

    Holey dooley. On the ABC!

    Crucially, one of the major dynamics driving Australia’s wage stagnation between 2013 and 2020 was our country’s immigration policy, Professor Garnaut says.

    In the early 2000s, the Howard government began sharply increasing Australia’s immigration intake, and the policy was continued by subsequent Labor and Coalition governments.

    The shift in policy caused Australia’s population to swell by 35 per cent since 2000, from 19 million to roughly 25.6 million by July last year.

    That’s worth reading again. Our population swelled by 35 per cent in 20 years.

    A portrait of economist Ross Garnaut.
    Ross Garnaut compared the effects of immigration for then-immigration minister Philip Ruddock in 2003.(Supplied: University Of Melbourne)
    And it was accompanied by a change in the composition of our immigration program away from permanent migration towards temporary migration, which made things much harder for some Australian workers.

    “The overall effect was to integrate much of the Australian labour market into a global labour market for the first time,” Professor Garnaut says.

    “Integration into a global labour market held down wages and inflation during the resources boom, [but] it contributed to persistent unemployment, rising underemployment and stagnant real wages during the expansion of total economic activity during the Dog Days.

    “It contributed to the historic shift in the distribution of income from wages to profits. Increased immigration contributed to total GDP growth, but detracted from the living standards of many Australian working families.”

    Professor Garnaut says those higher levels of migration and the explosion of temporary migration had social and cultural as well as economic consequences.

    “One such consequence was cultural and racial diversification, especially in large cities,” he says.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-03-07/this-graph-explains-why-you-have-been-feeling-poorer/13221796

    • haroldusMEMBER

      And this!

      He says in 2003, he compared the effects of immigration to Australia and to the United States for then-federal immigration minister Philip Ruddock, and he concluded that the higher skill content of Australia’s program meant that while immigration lowered the pay of low-income workers in the United States, immigration tended to raise the pay of low-income workers in Australia.

      But changes in the composition of Australia’s migration program after 2003 reversed that tendency.

      “Since then, the composition of Australian immigration has moved closer to the American model,” he says.

      “Immigration now lowers the incomes and employment prospects of low-income Australians.

      “If the new pattern continues in Australia, it may eventually cause a similar reaction to unskilled immigration as that ridden by presidential candidate Donald Trump in 2016.”

      ……..may eventually cause a similar reaction to unskilled immigration as that ridden by presidential candidate Donald Trump in 2016.

      I think we might be getting there, champ.

      • Ritualised Forms

        This…..

        “Settling early on an immigration program that is moderate in size and strongly focused on valuable education and skills will help us to avoid contentious and divisive political debate at a time when our society and polity are under great stress.”

        He says once we begin rebuilding the economy on the other side of COVID, it would make economic sense to set the new level of net migration to the same level it was during Australia’s productivity boom, at around 0.5 per cent of the population per year.

        “This would be about half the level of the Dog Days,” he says.

        He is talking about an immigration (NOM) level of circa 100k…….which is basically what Macrobusiness, DLS, LvO and sundry hangers on have been on about for ten years. Good on him!

        • This opens the door for the labor party to start having a conversation about the numbers due to the fact they can reference this Garnaut assessment.
          For their sake they better use it.

    • Sub-optimal analysis from Garnaut as he does not discriminate or maybe not realise the significant differences in population since 2006 (via the NOM and describing those caught up as ‘immigrants’) i.e. our estimated population includes many of working age but are temporary residents i.e. students, backpackers and other long term residents, have employment restrictions (except those temp workers on independent work visas and NZ citizens).

      On the other hand the working age in the permanent population of Australians is declining in proportion to increasing numbers of (LNP voting) retirees (catered to by generous govt. social and tax policies vs. unemployed/employed), and significant number of retirees is also correlated with soft spending in the economy as most retirees do not need to buy much (especially if frugal), nor do international students or backpackers (apart from essentials).

      • Ritualised Forms

        Nothing suboptimal about it. Those ‘students’ you warble on about have been given preferential treatment for residence, and have accordingly taken it up in droves……

        ……..and the falling working population to retired population would make it an ideal time to deploy capital and investment into as much automation as we can rustle up. Not gumming the world with cheap fruit pickers, restaurant and retail workers who get ripped off by their employers and disposable education workers.

        If only Australia could create a case where investment in export facing industry made any sense. Starting from the worlds most expensive people, on the worlds most expensive land, using the worlds most expensive electricity it may take a while

  9. MathiasMEMBER

    Thats a lot of Defence Spending going on with China.

    Thats why Gold is falling and Silver seems to be totally immune. Interesting.

    Australia and Canada. Happiest Countrys in the world. Pfft… as if. Only happy when we get chart packs to read.

    Fairfax – Why this escort says marriage is outdated
    https://www.bodyandsoul.com.au/sex-relationships/sex/why-an-escort-thinks-marriage-is-outdated/news-story/e88e7ece06eb1e3187b82106ac49d9c3

    Yes… and if this is True… then we need to rethink the way we live our life… and appropriately socially engineer our future instead of waiting 20 years like Australia always seems to do.

    Immediately, this is going to send ‘Living Costs’ up as Cohabitation dies and gets replaced with single life. Automatically, the Governments going to have to fund extra services to compensate for this loss. We all know whats going to happen. A lot more ‘at home’ services until eventually, the Government will just say, ” We’re happy to skim the taxes from Feminism but not willing to give anything back into the Communitys “.

    Marriage is dead… so lets move on… and start restructuring the way we live.

    Men will end up richer… and it’ll certainly mean a lot more Wind Surfing time with the boys.

    Feminism has effectively destroyed marriages and co-habitation within Australia. We keep looking for ways to take from the Community without ever actually giving anything back. Feminism is yet just another example of this.

    Its going to be a different world in the next 10 years, I think. Working from Home, Renewable Energy and Renewable Housing ( Tank Water / Solar / Fruit Trees ), Electric Cars, Everyones going to be Single, Lots more Technology ( internet future? ), Artificial Intelligence ruling our life… hard to imagine but I think a lot of this is closer then we think. Australian Government will probably turn Socialist Corrupt as it slowly realises it doesnt have the money to fund everything it needs ( considering it socially oestricised half its population due to the Boomers ). Thats all considering we arent at war soon.

    The great thing is if Australia does have Conscription in a few years, pulling anyone between the ages of 18 and 45 into National Service… then at least Im over the age bracket so the only war there will be for me is watching it on TV or Youtube. Maybe we can give the woman a Rifle and send them too. Plenty of cheap tampons in the Army. They’ll have less to complain about then.

    The virtue of every man. To get to live ones life in peace. Sounds lovely.

    The Government will have to find something else to attack us for… Im sure there’ll be something.

    • Mathias, assuming you’re not trolling, you have corrosive views. Yours is an unhealthy attitude and you’re not in a position to give any such advice. Please stop projecting your own inadequacies.

  10. haroldusMEMBER

    Oh no! It’s another “Macro” with a van Onselen!

    Chicks ain’t too happy with P.

  11. MathiasMEMBER

    Australias Broke.

    I’ve been somewhat shocked at all the money printing needed just to keep a few people happy. So Im thinking after we drive Interest Rates to -5% with money printing and turn Australia into an Immigrant National Security disaster, the Government might be looking at raising GST to fund its Angelic Baby Boomers.

    Im thinking, if Negative Interest Rates dont destroy the Aussie Currency then raising GST certainly will.

    So who’s going to keep there money in Aussie Dollars after that?

    The Government might have to come up with some kind of incentive to still be holding Aussie Dollars ;p

    They brought this on themselves.

    • Capitalism would be broken well before -5%. Think about it. How much would a house be worth if you could borrow as much as you wanted (millions, billions, trillions), and pay off the principle without ever having to fork out a single cent of your own?

      I think more realistically is after they fail to to create inflation over next few years, they will force us off cash and brute force electronic inflation. i.e. legislated wage and price inflation.

  12. MathiasMEMBER

    Im thinking at some point in the future… when everything begins to break down… money is going to be a hedge between US Dollars and Commodities ( Gold/Silver/Platinum ). Money Printing will be used to drive people back to Currencys temporarily but ultimately, the death of these Currencys will likely mean Commodities is probably where the long term true value is going to lie.

    When America Prints, DXY rises and hold the USD. When they stop printing, DXY falls, shift back into Commodities again.

    Currencys like Aussie Dollars will probably just end up getting smashed. As Governments problems continue to grow ( problems Australia created for itself ) and they’ll be forced to keep on jacking up the Taxes, people will eventually just abandon the Currency.

    Unless your a Drug Dealer, you’ll see less and less money kept in Aussie Dollars as Bartering will become more common in Australia ( if it isnt already ). Paying in Aussie Dollars will Incur a hefty Baby Boomer Saving GST, which is one reason you wont want to use it.

    At some point, I think Australian Currency wont be worth dog sh*t. The solar panels, water tanks and fruit tree’s in your backyard that you own will be worth more to you then the worthless Currency Australia holds in its hand.

    I wonder how long Property Law is going to last for?