Can Australia’s allies trust Labor on China?

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Malcolm Turnbull penned an excellent piece in the Nikkei yesterday on the history of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, or “Quad’ as it is known. It is the developing security mechanism that brings together India, Japan, US and Australia, four Indo-Pacific democracies:

  • The Quad was the initiative of Shinzo Abe in 2007.
  • It engaged in one naval exercise before Labor stalled it then withdrew entirely under Kevin Rudd after pressure from Beijing.
  • In 2015, Abe revived the Quad with Turnbull but India was “aggrieved” after Labor left everybody high and dry the first time.
  • It took some persuasion to undo the Labor damage, aided more recently by Chinese aggression in Northern India.

To my mind, the Quad is an excellent initiative. If still along way from the level of NATO, it can develop over time into an architecture for passive China containment which is exactly what the world needs (if not yet active).

But the first question everybody, including allies, need to ask is is it durable in Australia? Labor has already kowtowed to China once on the Quad. Though Kevin Rudd disputes this idea. Would it leave again if it wins government and more pressure is applied?

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The good news is that shadow foreign affairs and defense have both embraced the Quad these days. In the AFR in 2015:

…a space for four like-minded, trading democracies to share their thoughts on regional security.

Maintaining a stable strategic system in our region, anchored in the rule of law, will require stronger partnerships and deeper co-operation.

…Defence exercises, particularly naval exercises, with these countries and others in the region also play a critical role in building operational understanding and confidence which in turn is vital for the security of the Indo-Pacific.

…working with neighbours builds confidence and transparency in what is a remarkably diverse region.

…Adding the Quadrilateral to the regional mix of dialogues and defence arrangements can only reinforce ASEAN’s central structures and institutions.

That’s the good news. The bad is that ever since Labor has been dogged with serious Chinese corruption scandals. Worse, during last year’s intense trade war confrontation with China, as Bejing delivered the 14 conditions for a happy Australian friendship that ended democracy, Labor was mealy-mouthed, blamed the Morrison Government for poor diplomacy, and gave the distinct impression that it was always prepared to listen and bow to Beijing. Labor did say it would not compromise Australian values, but this was hardly a strong enough position when the freedom of its people was at stake.

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Meanwhile, Labor greybeards were appalling, often blaming security agencies for the breakdown of the relationship. And, throughout, Labor-run state governments have been borderline treasonous in their kowtowing.

This points to the unsettling truth that Labor is chock full of China grovellers. The ranks of its greybeards are owned by Chinese money. Its senior staff have been groomed for decades by the CCP. Its rank and file are obsessed with race over class, infiltrated by agents of foreign influence and dedicated to the “Asianisation” of Australia via mass immigration. If Labor operated in a vacuum of diplomatic choices, nobody should have any faith that it would choose the democratic Quad over Chinese coercion and bribery.

That said, diplomacy does not operate in a vacuum. The Australian people are vehemently anti-CCP now which severely curtails Labor’s Chinese disorder:

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And, with the Biden Administration pushing the Quad agenda, Labor will be taking serious heat from the American side of the Australian imperial straddle which will keep it in line.

No, Labor cannot be trusted on China. Yes, the Quad will proceed under Labor rule the same as it would under a Coalition Government.

About the author
David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal. He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.