Amid the inane babble and pained cries of the pro-China lobby, MB has always had a clear-eyed view of the future of the US in the Pacific. US strategic titan, Walter Russel Mead summed it up well yesterday:
- US engagement in the Indo-Pacific is long and deep.
- Since the Louisiana Purchase, America has engaged a western coastline via missionaries, whalers, trade and strategic balance.
- The region is central to US prosperity and security.
- Walking away is the “least likely” thing it will do.
Amen to that both in terms of strategic truth and Australian national interest. It boils down to a very simple calculation. Does the US imperium want to be bordered in the South China Sea where it can station all of its weaponry and keep its rival busy? Or does it want to be bordered just off Los Angeles with Chinese weaponry stationed off its coast? End of calculations.
During the Trump years, as the blathering pearl grabbers, typically but not always of the fake left, fretted that we were alone the above was always pretty obvious. The Trump Administration was transactional but it also recognised all of the above, if anything more openly than prior regimes.
Now, as Democrats take power once more, the soothing rhetoric is back with it, via Peter Hartcher:
- Biden’s Indo-Pacific doyen, Kurt Campbell, has warned China that no accommodations will transpire before it ceases its trade war on Australia.
- The US does not see Australia as separate from its own interest vis China.
Before we get all dewy-eyed over that, this calculus is based upon hard interest not sentiment. Australia is the jumping-off point for blocking Chinese commodity supply chains if it becomes necessary. We are the logical offset for supply of rare earth minerals. We are the satellite station for PacCom intelligence. And we’re a democracy to boot.
Basically, we are an immensely valuable stationary aircraft carrier in the South Pacific with huge economic power over China. This is why it has tried so hard to corrupt us.
This push by the Biden Administration is much broader than us. As Sinocism makes clear today, it is a mobilisation of the entire US imperium to confront the Chinese bullyboy:
The US appears to be saying all the right things to key allies, so expect the PRC delegation to feel even more aggrieved and pressured.
US-Japan statement no surprise, ‘accusation baseless’ – Global Times
Quad leaders hand Australia a bigger stick to fend off China – Nikkei Asia – Former AUS PM Turnbull
Bring it on.
