Daily iron ore price update (too early?)

Iron ore prices for February 9, 2020:

Everything up again.

Have I made my sell the rallies call too early? Reuters reports that ex-China demand is rebounding:

But, as Chinese credit shows today, the slowdown in China is being baked in now. It won’t arrive until H2 but it’s coming:

As well, Chinese steel mills are still losing money at these prices. That means they will have to keep raw material prices under pressure wherever they can. That means volatility.

I expect firm pricing through March and April and then a big drop in May. Followed by rallies but steps lower in price ranges after that.

So, I’m still happy with the sell the rallies call.

David Llewellyn-Smith
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