Iron ore prices fell on February 19th, 2021 as paper markets pulled back. Steel has not updated:
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The dynamic we see every year at this time is the building of the great steel pile. That is well underway:
It will run for another three weeks yet so I expect to see it top out somewhere above early 2014 levels. Last year’s pile was severely distorted by COVID-19 disruptions.
That said, if the great pile does pull up lower than that it will be bullish at the margin given it will leave mills less room to manage raw materials prices with steel inventories so it bears watching.