The dynamic we see every year at this time is the building of the great steel pile. That is well underway:

It will run for another three weeks yet so I expect to see it top out somewhere above early 2014 levels. Last year’s pile was severely distorted by COVID-19 disruptions.

That said, if the great pile does pull up lower than that it will be bullish at the margin given it will leave mills less room to manage raw materials prices with steel inventories so it bears watching.

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David Llewellyn-Smith

David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal.

He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.

Latest posts by David Llewellyn-Smith (see all)

• Goldman’s bullish oil case - February 25, 2021
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• Is the post-COVID boom going to bust? - February 25, 2021