Everything firm. Port stocks fell last week to around 125mt. China imported 96.75mt in December and 1.17bn in 2020, up 9.5%:

As for the year ahead, my thoughts are these:

• Chinese iron ore restocking is ongoing (bullish);
• Chinese mills have run down COVID steel stocks (bullish);
• global recovery will accelerate (bullish);
• USD to keep falling (bullish);
• China’s trade war on itself will continue (bullish);
• iron ore supply will steadily normalise (bearish);
• China will begin to slow in H2 (bearish).

For H1, 2020 I see an average iron ore price of $160, with a spike to $200 or drop to $140 quite possible.

For H2, 2020 that average price will drop to $140 and it will keep falling to $100 as we move into 2022.

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David Llewellyn-Smith

David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal.

He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.

Latest posts by David Llewellyn-Smith (see all)

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