Iron ore prices for January 15, 2021:
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Everything firm. Port stocks fell last week to around 125mt. China imported 96.75mt in December and 1.17bn in 2020, up 9.5%:
As for the year ahead, my thoughts are these:
- Chinese iron ore restocking is ongoing (bullish);
- Chinese mills have run down COVID steel stocks (bullish);
- global recovery will accelerate (bullish);
- USD to keep falling (bullish);
- China’s trade war on itself will continue (bullish);
- iron ore supply will steadily normalise (bearish);
- China will begin to slow in H2 (bearish).
For H1, 2020 I see an average iron ore price of $160, with a spike to $200 or drop to $140 quite possible.
For H2, 2020 that average price will drop to $140 and it will keep falling to $100 as we move into 2022.