Links 4 December 2020

Macro & Markets

Americas

Asia/Middle East

Europe (and the UK)

Oceania

…and furthermore…

Latest posts by Chris Becker (see all)

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  1. September 10, 2020: The U.S. Centers for Disease and Control and Prevention (CDC) updated its estimated Infection Fatality Rate (IFR) parameters to include age-specific data showing the vast majority of people who contract the Chinese coronavirus survive.

    EXCERPTS DIRECTLY from the CDC COVID-19 Pandemic Planning Scenarios (link below):

    See Table 1, Scenario 5 ‘Current Best Estimate’
    “This scenario represents a current best estimate about viral transmission and disease severity in the United States, with the same caveat: that the parameter values will change as more data become available.

    Infection Fatality Ratio†
    0-19 years: 0.00003
    20-49 years: 0.0002
    50-69 years: 0.005
    70 years: 0.054

    I encourage anyone who is interested in FACTS to check out the CDC COVID19 data for themselves:

    https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-scenarios.html#five-scenarios

    Edited to add that, for the sake of clearing up confusion, the 70 age group includes people 70 and over. For instance, even 105 year olds are included in this group, so probably would be nice to have a more detailed breakdown in this age group.

    • So if the whole US population caught it, based on those numbers, about a million deaths….does that count as a fact?

    • Nice strawman statistics – grab the best estimate from a planning document from three months ago – not an actual statistical analysis of current cases, with the latest CDC report (November 24, 2020) showing an estimated IFR of 0.4% to 1%.
      While the current case fatality rate (CFR) has thankfully dropped down to 2% in the US, but we know how that compares to historical CFRs for influenza, which is 0.1% to 0.2%. Can you see the difference? 10 to 20 times as fatal as the flu. Known. FACTS.
      And yes, when you adjust for age, the CFR for COVID-19 for anyone under is 40 then becomes as bad as seasonal influenza, but for 40-60 its five times as bad and for 60+ its shockingly bad (10-100+ times). And it’s not going away – its not seasonal.
      Over 3000 people are dying everyday in the US, with nearly 200000 new cases each day (CFR of 2% = 4000 of those will likely die).
      Do the math. If its too hard for you, go turn on FOX or SKY news and be comforted there.
      Data: CDC.gov, John Hopkins University CSSE data

    • That terminally woke princess on ABC wireless had another crack at farm workers this week, framing the subject on how Australians don’t want to work.

      O.o

      Can we all agree that “woke” has lost any possibly useful meaning it might once have had, since it seems to run the gamut of describing people who think it’s OK to be trans to describing classic conservative ‘they’re poor because they’re lazy and stupid’ rhetoric ?

      • That’s exactly what I’d expect a woke lefty specialist N.P.C. S.J.W. snow-flake like yourself to say. Go back to your Guardian and ABC and every other piece of UnAustralian fake news MSM sheep fodder you read and leave we true Aussies alone.

        Did I do it right?

  2. THE NEW NEW NORMAL: MOBILITY AND ACTIVITY IN THE `AFTER TIMES’ … DAVID LEVINSON … TRANSPORTIST

    (SUPERB VIDEO)

    h/t PH and AB

    https://transportist.org/2020/11/03/the-new-new-normal-mobility-and-activity-in-the-after-times/

    We may be nearing “peak city”. This shift undermines all of the place-based strategies that economic development organisations have been promoting for decades. It’s a topic David Levinson will be addressing at the Festival of Urbanism 13-26 November. … VIEW & READ more via hyperlink above …