Macro & Markets
Americas
- U.S. bans cotton imports from China producer XPCC citing Xinjiang ‘slave labor’ – Reuters (cue the cotton picking cartoons)
- Democrats took a risk to push mail-in voting. It paid off – Guardian (hasn’t paid off yet….)
- Hundreds of Staten Island protesters rally around a bar shut down for defying covid rules – WaPo (voting the idiot-in-chief out still leaves lots of idiots)
- First Thing: US marks record high in daily coronavirus deaths, over 3000 – Guardian (more than one 9/11 attack per day…and probably double that by end of January)
Asia/Middle East
- Japan enacts law to make coronavirus vaccines free to residents – JapanToday
- Japan plans to ban sales of new gasoline cars in mid-2030s – Japantimes
- Coronavirus latest: Indonesia sets daily record with over 8,300 cases – NikkeiAsia
- The number of coronavirus cases reported in Iran surpasses 1 million, the Middle East’s worst outbreak – Bloomberg
- A new report argues “creative accounting” in China’s steelmaking industry is reversing air quality gains in one of the country’s most-polluting sectors – Caixin
Europe (and the UK)
- Private spies reportedly infiltrated an Amazon strike, secretly taking photos of workers, trade unionists, and journalists. Now a union is taking legal action. – Business Insider
- EU pushes for ‘right to disconnect’ from work at home – DW
- Moldova’s new president calls for Russian troops to withdraw from territory – BBC (in tomorrows news, Moldovan president accidentally falls out of third storey window)
- Lockdowns have pushed Britain’s economy into one of the world’s deepest downturns – Quartz
- Euro zone business activity shrank in November, but optimism surged – Reuters
Oceania
- China threatens ‘lasting punishment’ as Biden backs Australia – news.com.au
- Law firms are pushing staff to come back to the office, with many settling on a model that will allow only two days of working from home each week – AFR
- Alan Joyce wants to play up the recovery, but not too much, given the debt load QANTAS has taken on to navigate its way through the crisis – AFR
- Clive Palmer could be forced to pay millions more after election spend – BrisbaneTimes
- News Corp editors claim Rudd and Turnbull ‘exploited’ Murdoch papers during political ascent – TheAge (shameless!)
- All the recent growth can’t hide the fact that Australia remains in a deep recession – Guardian
…and furthermore…
- Apple will be forced to sell iPhones with included power adapter in Brazil – 9to5mac (how bizarre…)
- More than 2.5 miles of cliff paintings found hidden in the Amazon rainforest show ancient hunter-gatherers killing Ice Age creatures – Business Insider
- Anti LGBTQ Hungarian politician quits after being caught at gay lockdown 25-man orgy – NationalPost
- South Africa’s Lottery probed as 5, 6, 7, 8, 9 and 10 are drawn and 20 people win. – BBC
Latest posts by Chris Becker (see all)
- Macro Morning - February 25, 2021
- Macro Afternoon - February 24, 2021
- Macro Morning - February 24, 2021
September 10, 2020: The U.S. Centers for Disease and Control and Prevention (CDC) updated its estimated Infection Fatality Rate (IFR) parameters to include age-specific data showing the vast majority of people who contract the Chinese coronavirus survive.
EXCERPTS DIRECTLY from the CDC COVID-19 Pandemic Planning Scenarios (link below):
See Table 1, Scenario 5 ‘Current Best Estimate’
“This scenario represents a current best estimate about viral transmission and disease severity in the United States, with the same caveat: that the parameter values will change as more data become available.
Infection Fatality Ratio†
0-19 years: 0.00003
20-49 years: 0.0002
50-69 years: 0.005
70 years: 0.054
I encourage anyone who is interested in FACTS to check out the CDC COVID19 data for themselves:
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-scenarios.html#five-scenarios
Edited to add that, for the sake of clearing up confusion, the 70 age group includes people 70 and over. For instance, even 105 year olds are included in this group, so probably would be nice to have a more detailed breakdown in this age group.
So if the whole US population caught it, based on those numbers, about a million deaths….does that count as a fact?
2,800 more today.
Nice strawman statistics – grab the best estimate from a planning document from three months ago – not an actual statistical analysis of current cases, with the latest CDC report (November 24, 2020) showing an estimated IFR of 0.4% to 1%.
While the current case fatality rate (CFR) has thankfully dropped down to 2% in the US, but we know how that compares to historical CFRs for influenza, which is 0.1% to 0.2%. Can you see the difference? 10 to 20 times as fatal as the flu. Known. FACTS.
And yes, when you adjust for age, the CFR for COVID-19 for anyone under is 40 then becomes as bad as seasonal influenza, but for 40-60 its five times as bad and for 60+ its shockingly bad (10-100+ times). And it’s not going away – its not seasonal.
Over 3000 people are dying everyday in the US, with nearly 200000 new cases each day (CFR of 2% = 4000 of those will likely die).
Do the math. If its too hard for you, go turn on FOX or SKY news and be comforted there.
Data: CDC.gov, John Hopkins University CSSE data
https://www.afr.com/property/residential/they-will-never-let-a-housing-crash-happen-20201202-p56jtq
Amazing, must be bad.
Google finally does something for the world……now watch them monetise it
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-03348-4
That terminally woke princess on ABC wireless had another crack at farm workers this week, framing the subject on how Australians don’t want to work. Read this you stupid cow.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-12-04/report-alleges-wage-theft-by-labour-hire-blueberry-farms/12947394
That terminally woke princess on ABC wireless had another crack at farm workers this week, framing the subject on how Australians don’t want to work.
O.o
Can we all agree that “woke” has lost any possibly useful meaning it might once have had, since it seems to run the gamut of describing people who think it’s OK to be trans to describing classic conservative ‘they’re poor because they’re lazy and stupid’ rhetoric ?
That’s exactly what I’d expect a woke lefty specialist N.P.C. S.J.W. snow-flake like yourself to say. Go back to your Guardian and ABC and every other piece of UnAustralian fake news MSM sheep fodder you read and leave we true Aussies alone.
Did I do it right?
Which Princess is that?
I didn’t hear it, bit he could be referring to David Littleproud. Princess Freudenberg was on yesterday morning.
This one.
https://www.abc.net.au/radio/melbourne/programs/theconversationhour/
THE NEW NEW NORMAL: MOBILITY AND ACTIVITY IN THE `AFTER TIMES’ … DAVID LEVINSON … TRANSPORTIST
(SUPERB VIDEO)
h/t PH and AB
https://transportist.org/2020/11/03/the-new-new-normal-mobility-and-activity-in-the-after-times/
We may be nearing “peak city”. This shift undermines all of the place-based strategies that economic development organisations have been promoting for decades. It’s a topic David Levinson will be addressing at the Festival of Urbanism 13-26 November. … VIEW & READ more via hyperlink above …
There’s been so much boring irrelevant news about recently to do with China and/or it’s virus so I’m stoked that my favourite news site has posted an exclusive real news story as their lead this morn!
https://www.news.com.au/entertainment/celebrity-life/celebrity-kids/roxy-jacenko-defends-buying-nineyearold-daughter-luxury-car/news-story/9145cf29931632fefd03295709a355ec