Links 3 December 2020

Macro & Markets





…and furthermore…

Latest posts by Chris Becker (see all)



    Evidence ‘inconclusive’ that lower interest rates are increasing inequality, says Adrian Orr … Tom Pullar – Strecker … Stuff NZ

    … extract …

    … Orr acknowledged New Zealand had a “challenge” with house prices, saying they were “sitting in the top three globally”.

    But he reiterated the bank’s view that “many other factors” other than monetary policy were influencing that, saying the key factors were supply and demand.

    “A historic undersupply of housing and restrictions on land supply are two widely acknowledged issues. … read more via hyperlink above …
    RBNZ Governor Adrian Orr made it crystal clear recently with TVNZ’s John Campbell … the structural problems and solutions have been known for years … just get on and do it and move on …

    Record house prices not caused by Reserve Bank – Adrian Orr … TVNZ

  2. migtronixMEMBER

    Looks to me like Europe has flattened the curve, nobody is under 23 hour house arrest….

  3. migtronixMEMBER

    Alright all you aholes that said over and over again that you can’t protect the vulnerable – riddle my why the EU, the most on top of this whole thing from a concerted view, just announced that the first in line for the vaccine are:
    Healthcare work
    The elderly.
    The infirm.

    Ruh roh

    • I was under the impression the elderly, infirm and pregnant were not going to be in line for vaccination until quite some time in the new year because of the limited data for possible side effects on these groups.
      Healthcare workers and other front line, police, fire military etc yes.
      Aside from that im not clear what you mean.

      • migtronixMEMBER

        A) it seems they’re throwing caution to the wind re firm data as govts have indemnified

        B) if they can target a group for special treatment they can…. Target a group for special treatment!! Ffs

    • Because it’s a vaccine you moron. A 30 second intervention. It’s not implementing the structures to isolate 30% of society for months on end.

    • GunnamattaMEMBER

      We knew this was coming, but then again we have known they were manipulated by Chinese State interests for at least a decade too……

      Beijing controls Chinese-language media agencies in Australia, says intel agency

      The briefings also highlight that hugely popular WeChat news sites in Australia are subject to complete control and censorship by Beijing, with some accounts directly managed by the Communist Party.

      The revelations came as relations between China and Australia plunged to new lows after Chinese Foreign Affairs Ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian shared a fabricated image of an Australian soldier holding a knife to an Afghan child’s throat. The post followed months of escalating trade sanctions.

      Official sources who could not be identified because they were not authorised to speak have confirmed that the Office of National Intelligence’s Open Source Centre, which “collects, interprets and disseminates” non-classified material “of political, strategic or economic significance to Australia”, has analysed 20 months of content from 14 online Chinese-language news sites and 10 popular WeChat sites. It has also checked ownership structures and Communist Party links.

      The analysis had found that online news media platform the Southeast Net Australia was fully and openly controlled by the Communist Party but Beijing’s sway over other domestic outlets was, while more subtle, still evident.

      The sources said two outlets were possible fronts for Beijing’s United Front Work Department, the Chinese government’s peak overseas influence organisation. These were Melbourne’s Pacific Media – which publishes WeChat news account au123 – and Sydney’s Nanhai Group, which publishes Australia’s third most popular WeChat site, WeSydney, which has about 400,000 subscribers and is registered to a company owned by the United Front’s China News Service.

      Nanhai also publishes the Chinese-language edition of the Qantas inflight magazine and runs an annual Sydney community event, the New Year Lantern Festival, that has been attended by senior Australian politicians, including former prime ministers Malcolm Turnbull and Tony Abbott.

      The Office of National Intelligence assessments concluded that the most popular online Australian Chinese-language news portals are pro-Beijing and have varying links to the Chinese state via the China News Service, which is controlled by the United Front Work Department.

        • GunnamattaMEMBER

          Well I would have thought questions about her funding sources, and her activities as a fund raiser for other Torynuffs should be right in the top middle (in large font bolded and underlined) of the Questions the Australian public are owed explanations for at the moment….

          Can the Honourable Member for Chisholm confirm for the Australian public that she has never sought or obtained funding from sources identified in the Australian media today as being fronts for the Chinese State, or overtly acting in the interests of the Chinese State?

          Can the Honourable Member for Chisholm confirm for the Australian public that no member of her staff, or supporters, have ever sought or obtained funding from sources identified in the Australian media today as being fronts for the Chinese State, or overtly acting in the interests of the Chinese State?

          • Mining BoganMEMBER

            That’s how a logical, clear-minded type would approach the situation, however…

            Hang on! You want The Albotross to ask!!?? Dreamin’…

      • Geez, this is getting interesting… so did Scomo knowingly get himself scrubbed on WeChat (a sacrificial post) to open the way for the release of the intelligence report?

      • Ronin8317MEMBER

        Normally they would only ban the message from being viewed inside China. The fact that they banned it for overseas users as well mean a direct order to censor it from the higher up.

        WeChat’s days overseas is numbered.

        • GunnamattaMEMBER

          Thats what I think.

          I reckon the CCP knows that its days of access to the ‘developed world’ (North America, Europe, Japan/Korea, ANZ) are about to be curtailed across a number of fronts – social media, technology, trade, education and science – and are making a noise on the way out…..

          As gloomy as it may seem I reckon this is all prepositioning. A trial run using Australia for the sorts of responses we will see down the track with other players – because Australia [thanks to its own stupidity and a generations worth of feeble political, academic and corporate leadership] has opened itself to be that much more ‘punishable’ and the ability to punish is the message the CCP would like to send…

          • But that’s the bit I don’t understand… They were on their way to owning us (Australia) completely, and inevitably would have. If they’re the long game players some say they are, why screw that up over a few diplomatics slights?

            The problem with threatening to be something is that people get used to the idea of you being that thing. Right now the western world is mulling an ostracized China and economically and politically (domestic) it doesn’t seem that bad. Any adjustment will be all the more easier because of this slow burn soft power BS that’s so clearly telegraphed their intentions that they’ve given their game away to the extent its now openly discussed in the MSM.

            The Huawei / 5G bans obviously forced their hand a little, but you’ve really dropped the ball, Xi.

          • I think along similar lines.

            I also wonder if it’s an attempt to eventually bring us closer into their web. Treat us mean, keep us keen. Show us how dependent we are on them, we’ll brown nose before too long, before strengthening our economic and trade ties further. This will only deepen our dependency on them, resulting in an agreement where we toe their line. Hell, we may even offer Tassie and the Kimberleys to them as a gesture of goodwill.

          • Ronin8317MEMBER

            You are attributing too much intelligence to the Wolf Wankers. The reality is that they online trolls acting under the guise of Chinese Patriotism without any strategy behind it. To censor the high profile account of the Australian PM overseas have made all their previous denial about editorial control moot, and their action have completely wrecked TikTok.

          • Does Scrotty owe the Chinese an apology over demanding they allow weapons inspector grade investigation of the origons of Covid ?
            Coronavirus epidemic was spreading in US last Christmas, long before it was identified in China, new study finds – The Hill

        • Cool bananas,
          No attempt to stop child exploitation, but going to remove the pictures off peoples computers. Sounds reasonable.
          After all, looking at the pictures is what produces all the harm…

          Or a BS excuse to grab even more police state powers?

          • Where does it say there is no attempt to stop child exploitation? That work will continue.
            And looking at the pictures generates demand.
            In the annals of dumb comments yours is a contender.

          • I do wonder about the types that sign up for that kind of work, which must included looking at all the filth on the computers. Bit too much like the type who volunteer for the Rural Fire Service and always seem to be first on the scene when a fire breaks out ….

        • 👍👍👍
          As the King of Spin (and his grubby mates Porter and the Potato) uses News Ltd to get people to look over there 🙁
          There is not even any subtly about it now. Scotty does not do subtle.

    • Yeah but that was going to happen. The reality is, the exercise was a means to promote the message to local australian chinese population. That all the media here covered that he did it would have been sufficient.

  4. alwaysanonMEMBER – One worker across two hotels!?!? They really would rather risk billions of dollars of economic impact of shutdowns etc. rather than just pay these people reasonable full time wages so they can be secure in working just for ONE quarantine hotel? Pay them well but then put a huge penalty if they are caught working anywhere but the one hotel they are supposed to! How hard is this! Her getting on 1hr each way of public transport is harder – what to do there? Subsidise her driving? Subsidized Uber/Taxi (so at least it is one person vs. a trainload and easier to contact trace)? Put her up in said hotel almost like a FIFO worker?

    • reusachtigeMEMBER

      This is why I am confident we will eventually get our big herd immunity wave. Like I said below, our system is weak and the China virus learnt this from it’s master.

      • alwaysanonMEMBER

        I just mean in the Quarantine hotels. Even if it was $50k more per staff member * 10,000 staff members nationally = $500 million. I’d rather they pay that to keep us all safe rather than whatever their spending on military toys etc…

  5. reusachtigeMEMBER

    LOLOLOL at people saying “ban WeChat”! Ain’t never gonna happen. Our system of freedom is weak so all it will take is a few key people to scream. China knows our system is weak and will exploit us until they win. Morrison is the poster-child of our weak system.

    • Shades of MessinaMEMBER

      Probably just something that only one company exports but they then try to make anonymous under the guise of sensitive commercial intell.

      Can’t think what it would be in that chart though.

  6. Mining BoganMEMBER

    Coppers getting lazy.

    Don’t know how it will work though. I’ve had quite a few policemen tell me that the footage from my bike cameras can’t be used. And this is wrong…

    “Crime Stoppers NSW CEO, Peter Price AM, said: “Never before have we asked the community to report these crimes and Crime Stoppers NSW is the first, not only in Australia, but around the world, to initiate this campaign.””

    London has had an online reporting system operating for a while now. No doubt other cities do as well.

  7. Orange Lemur:
    When I was younger, I used to be a Guardian reading lefty: one of those idiots who accused anyone with dissenting views of being racist. I despised the white working class to the extent (and I’m not making this up) that I favoured unlimited immigration to dilute their voice into irrelevance. No doubt much of the establishment still harbour this belief to some extent, perhaps in their beloved self-conscious.
    Eventually, I couldn’t understand the contradictions in Guardian comment pieces. How could one vehemently oppose female stereotyping yet crude male stereotypes were published? How could one be against stereotyping, yet all men/whites/Brits were held accountable for something based on their s e x/race/nationality?


    … Housing major concern rockets to 53% of New Zealanders … 16% of Australians …

    … Watch the ‘affordability gap’ widen dramatically in Australia’s favour … and aspirational young New Zealander’s flee there in droves …

    The Ipsos New Zealand Issues Monitor … November 2020 (pdf)

    … and housing hyperinflation sets in … as the Real Estate Institute of New Zealand October Report released mid-November illustrates …

    REINZ Report … Month of October 2020

    Median house prices across New Zealand increased by 19.8% from $605,000 in October 2019 to a new record median high of $725,000 in October 2020; and up from $689,000 in September this year (a 5.2% lift) according to the latest data from the Real Estate Institute of New Zealand (REINZ), source of the most complete and accurate real estate data in New Zealand.