Iron ore prices for December 17, 2020:
Spot is going to new highs today after paper blasted off last night. Steel is still rising so some inflation is being passed on.
There is no near term end to this:
- Chinese demand is excellent;
- Chinese inventories are short;
- ex-China demand is recovering;
- DXY is getting hammered;
- La Nina is here to deliver supply shocks, and
- Vale keeps missing targets.
$200 is ahead in Q1. But be warned, by Q2 some of these tailwinds will be comging off. By mid-2021, even more so.
It looks like boom and bust to me.
David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal.
He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.
He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.
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