Angry China blacks itself out with Aussie trade war

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The local CCP apologists always see Bejing “playing the long game”, even when all it is doing is following the blundering dictates of an angry tyrant. The Times:

China is suffering mass power cuts in the south, prompting cities to dim street lights, suspend factory production and tell office blocks to turn off heating unless the temperature falls below 3C.

The electricity crisis appears to have been prompted by a shortage of coal after Beijing banned imports from Australia. China imposed trade bans against Australia after Canberra demanded an inquiry into the origins of coronavirus and criticised Beijing’s treatment of the people of Hong Kong.

…China has insisted it is trying to reduce its dependence on coal. However, the combined effect of a surge in demand for electricity prompted by a colder than usual winter and the economic rebound following lockdown suggests that the country may not be able to wean itself off Australian coal so rapidly.

In the southern province of Hunan an energy official said that coal reserves had fallen 18.5 per cent and that generators may not be able to run at full capacity. Zhang Xiaojun, an assistant general manager of the State Grid Hunan Electric Power Company, told state media that electricity generated from wind and solar power would not make up the shortfall.

“When the coal reserve is inadequate, you immediately see the drop in the power generated,” an unnamed electric engineer told state media.

“We would be lying if we say this has nothing to do with the China-Australia tensions,” a former electricity official said.

March that truth-teller off for re-education. Or give him a job at the treasonous ABC, which does its best to defend Beijing again.

While Xi Jinping’s preposterous trade war on himself has forced millions of Chinese to shiver in bed, led to huge price spikes for steel, coke and iron ore, the shortage of Aussie coal has also launched gas demand, including for Aussie LNG, which has now sharply reversed its falling volume growth into China, up 32% last month:

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This has helped drive the price of Asian spot LNG to $12mmBtu, up 600% from earlier this year. These price rises are so sharp that various Chinese industrial users have been priced out, have stopped buying and are shutting down.

Along with a rising Brent oil gas benchmark, Australian LNG export revenues have taken off. The net effect of Xi Jinping’s trade war on himself has Australia laughing all the way to the bank as the small losers are swamped by the big winners:

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The income boom will come off in H2, 2021 as iron ore supply normalises but that was coming anyway and so long as the trade war persists it will pull back to much higher levels than otherwise.

To anyone not already “re-educated” by the treasonous ABC, “playing the long game” looks a lot more like shooting yourself in the commodity supply chain foot.

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About the author
David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal. He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.