Why didn’t Australia’s property market crash?

Eliza Owen, head of research at CoreLogic, has released an interesting report explaining why Australian property values have held up so well in the face of the COVID-19 pandemic:

2020 has been a devastating year for many households and small businesses. As Australia moves through its first recession in over 28 years, ABS payroll data suggests wages are down 4.3% between Australia’s 100th case of COVID-19 on March 14, and October 31st. In the same period, payroll jobs decreased 3.0% At the onset of the pandemic, consensus seemed to be building that the national decline in property values could reach 10%, with worst-case scenarios suggesting prices could fall by as much as a third.

But between March and October, Australian home values have fallen just 1.7%. In fact, October marked a 0.4% increase in values, with the trend over November suggesting a further acceleration in growth.

Although housing values are once again rising, it’s important to highlight that Melbourne housing values remain around 5.4% below their recent high, and Sydney housing values are still 4.8% below their 2017 peak. Values in Perth and Darwin are more than 20% below their 2014 peaks, while the remaining capital cities have seen housing values move to new record highs through the COVID period.

As Australia enters the start of a gradual recovery from the largest economic downturn since the 1930’s, how can this be reconciled with such a mild downturn in property values? A few factors that may explain the relative stability in housing, at a high level, are put forward below.

Low-cost debt

The cost of borrowing money is probably one of the most important factors influencing property values. Over 2020, the RBA have reduced the official cash rate target (which influences lending rates) by 65 basis points, to 0.1%.

In a bid to stimulate economic activity, the reduced cash rate has lowered bank funding costs, leading to record low mortgage rates. This relationship has held up historically, with RBA research previously suggesting that a 100 basis point reduction in the cash rate can lead to an 8% increase in property values over the following two years.

In fact, it is not uncommon for housing markets to increase in value during negative economic shocks, or periods of rising unemployment. This is because the monetary response to rising unemployment and falling consumption, is often to lower the price of debt. Those that still have a secure income during these shocks may be more inclined to borrow and buy as a result.

Mortgage repayment deferrals

The Australian household debt to income ratio is an eye-watering 185%. This high level of debt is a vulnerability amid severe economic contractions, because sudden job loss reduces the ability of households to service this debt. In the April Financial Stability Review, the RBA highlighted that each 100 basis point increase in the unemployment rate could lead to an 80 basis point increase in the portion of mortgages in arrears.

In the case of large-scale mortgage debt, ongoing arrears can lead to forced sales, which in turn fuel risks associated with higher supply in the housing market, lowers values, and higher rates of negative equity, where the borrower sells their property for less than what they owe the bank.

Mortgage repayment deferrals have acted as a temporary stopper on this vicious cycle. Those that did not want to sell amid economic uncertainty due to an inability to repay their mortgage, did not have to. This may have contributed to very low levels of stock throughout 2020, which only reduced further amid stage 2 restrictions from March. The low level of stock on market likely helped to insulate dwelling values during this time.

The April Financial Stability Review also noted that over half of owner-occupiers with a mortgage had at least 3 months of prepayments on their mortgage. Indebted households are further supported by the record-low cash rate, which is lowering the cost of servicing debt as incomes have fallen.

APRA data on loan deferrals show borrowers are becoming less dependent on these policies. As jobs and incomes slowly recover across the economy, the portion of housing loans deferred has come down from a peak of 11% in May, to 7% in September. More recent updates from lenders indicate the number of mortgages on deferral arrangements fell sharply through October and November.

Continued leniency for mortgage repayment deferral, particularly for owner-occupiers, is in the interest of the banking sector, and extends the ‘bridge to recovery’ as the economy gradually recovers.

It is worth noting indebted households do ultimately pay for mortgage repayment ‘holidays’. With unpaid interest capitalising on their loans, these households will be further indebted down the line, which may constrain their future consumption, particularly in the event of another shock to the economy. For now, however, it is a policy which has helped to stave off further deterioration in housing markets.

This economic downturn was different

A third, important factor that may have insulated parts of the housing market is the specific nature of the economic downturn. Severe job loss across hospitality, tourism and the arts resulted from the purposeful slowdown of ‘social consumption’.

The chart above shows that those working in food and accommodation and arts and recreation, have seen devastating job loss through the pandemic. However, those working in this industry are less likely to have mortgage debt.

The decline of employment in these sectors likely contributed to severe pockets of rental income decline, but the investor servicing debt may be able to hold on to the asset while it is temporarily vacant.

It is worth noting that prolonged declines in rental markets do ultimately pose risk to values. An example is Inner-city Melbourne, which has high exposure to rental demand from overseas migrants. Median asking rent values across the Melbourne SA2 market have fallen 24.2% between March and October. This highlights re-opening international travel and migration as a key part of bolstering rental income from property.

Housing markets did not hold up everywhere

These aforementioned factors may have contributed to stability in the housing market at an aggregate level in the face of COVID19.

The many markets that make up ‘the Australian property market’ still add complexity in evaluating its performance. There have in fact been significant corrections in property values since March, such as in the Inner East of Melbourne, which fell -9.6% in value over the period. COVID-19 has affected property markets, but severe loss in housing values has so far been contained.

Looking forward, despite further reductions in fiscal support, dwelling values are likely to continue rising off the back of the November cash rate reduction, converging with a recovery in consumer sentiment and economic conditions. A strong institutional response and the manufactured nature of the current downturn has moderated the impact of COVID-19 on the housing market, and would be further buoyed by the ongoing containment of the virus.

When the COVID-19 pandemic arrived I expected Melbourne and Sydney values to get hit hard due to:

  • Collapsing immigration;
  • Rising dwelling supply and falling rents;
  • High unemployment and falling household disposable incomes once emergency income support is unwound;
  • Ending of mortgage repayment holidays; and
  • Tightening credit availability as lenders become increasingly concerned about borrowers’ ability to repay.

I also wrongly assumed that mortgage rates had bottomed – an assumption proven wrong by the RBA’s Term Funding Facility (TFF).

It’s also worth giving kudos to Cameron Murray and Chris Joye, who took the contrarian view and argued that housing would rise into 2021. I tip my hat to both of you.

Unconventional Economist
Latest posts by Unconventional Economist (see all)

Comments

  1. This perma bear capitulated this week. Repayments are as cheap as rent, missed the Vic stamp duty discount by a few days but it would of bumped the price up by a equivalent amount or more anyway. Looking forward to drilling holes in walls and the the price doubling in 7 years ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

    • Supply on the market has tripled in many areas in under 4 weeks – market is being flooded and people have been completely fooled by the early rush of morons back into the market.

      2021 is when support ends and forced sales begin and coincides with all the Home Builders selling up their current property in order to pay for their new tree / sea change property.

      Its already epic – think about that triple the number of properties listed in a single month.

      Geelong has seen listings go from 80 to 180 with 10% rises month after month after month – nothing selling.

      Glad you fell for it – still a few more suckers to get lured in.

        • There was a massive one last year and one two years before that.

          Australian house prices are almost directly correlated to the AUD trading with China on Iron Ore.

          With Chinese tourists, wine, coal, wheat, barely, seafood, agriculture, copper, and everything else now off the menu – what does Australia have left ?

          AFR listed 48% of all our exports went to China in 2019 – with Europe and the US now entering depression you can rest assured house prices are going to collapse – unless the Fed Gove / RBA is planning on stimulating the entire western hemisphere – we have finally reached the end of the road – a couple of rail tunnels wont fix anything from here.

          • The90kwbeastMEMBER

            This assumes that no-one else in the whole world wants our exports. I think you will find that assumption false?

            Also, even if the $AUD does crash to $0.4 or something and no-one else does want all of our exports, that only makes buying up our property which is notoriously easy to do from overseas even easier does it not? Housing can be just as much an ‘export’ as it can be a shelter as we’ve already seen.

          • Jumping jack flash

            “With Chinese tourists, wine, coal, wheat, barely, seafood, agriculture, copper, and everything else now off the menu – what does Australia have left ?”

            We have debt, created by debt, which creates debt capacity by (hopefully) raising prices and then wages, and then around she goes to infinity and beyond, depending on the rate of debt growth. Actually producing something and selling it doesn’t matter anymore. We’re in the debt business now. As long as (actual) interest rates are lower than (actual) inflation we’ll be ok.

            Looking at those charts, especially the one showing house price growth, it is absolutely clear we need to do a lot better to turn this mess around – that’s just woeful performance and it is no surprise everything was going to hell in a handbasket around the end of 2018. We can’t expect to run an economy of pure debt on those kinds of results. It would have been nice to see the growth rate over 2004 – 2007 when their system was actually working, for contrast.

          • Strange Economics

            We have Iron Ore and Coal as China exports.
            Now China is delaying some coal, and in 4 years maybe from an African iron ore mine in a client state so they could go.
            it only took Fortescue 4 years to get going with Chinese support.
            But for the next 4 years – No worries and house prices up up up (the eternal Oz approach)

      • Keep holding out for that crash to come buddy. See you in 12 months, still saying the crash is coming in another 12.

          • Definitely not what I’m seeing first hand. Everything has gone back up to pre covid prices plus some.

          • Those MSM articles are so bipolar, one days it’s property is crashing followed by the next day prices are booming. They are doing it because it gets clicks and sucks the real gullible ones in 😉
            I’m not gullible, just a realist that can see the lengths government and banks will go to proping prices up. There’s no crash coming. There was a possibility that it may have when we had peak shut down in this country but one just has to look at the extreme measures taken. If things look unsteady in 6months time then they’ll just do more of the same to see things through. By that stage the borders will be open, the vaccine will be distributed and it will be back to business as usual. Not to mention they are now making noise about letting everyone access super for a deposit…
            The sad reality is just because the bears “want” a crash or think a crash will happen because it’s morally just, doesn’t mean it will happen. Our overlords will stoop to unthinkable lows to keep this going and those that think a crash will happen, will be saying the same thing in a decades time.

    • About to do the same. Landlord just told us they’re selling and we love the place. Mortgage repayments (if we get it at the right price) an extra $35pw so we’re making an offer before it hits the market.

      • Best of luck, be sure to remind the landlord of savings on agent commission and advertising 😉

      • Thanks all. It all feels a bit forced – they told us on Monday that they’re selling and the RE Agent did photos on Wednesday!! Both the housing and rental market around here (mid-north coast NSW) is tighter than a fish’s bum – hardly any stock. Anecdotally, good established family homes like the one we’re in are selling in a matter of days to out-of-towners – which is the landlord’s motivation to sell now and our motivation to jump at the opportunity because good rentals are going in a matter of hours!

        We were planning to buy in another 3 years with some solid saving for a bit more deposit, but the bank of M&D have kindly offered to gift us the difference (which I always baulked at until now, but they’re filthy rich). Spoke to a mortgage broker yesterday and with the 20% deposit, assuming we pay the upper end of what they’re asking, we’re pre-qualified for a 20 year loan less than 3x our gross income with current repayments only $35pw more than renting. As good a position as any to be a buyer in a market where everyone is going full [email protected]

        • A housing loan round 3x income is excellent. Just get it, pay stamp duty, and then pay as much as you can quicksmart. Don’t risk interest rates going up. Grow food, do whatever it takes, shop aldi, every dollar makes a different when the loan is only 3x income. It won’t matter if it falls a bit too. You are in the right spot spot at the right time.

  2. Housing wont rise in 2021 – zero chance.

    Endless spruik as always – sad really.

    Data is there for anyone to access –

    Greater Geelong had 81 properties listed in 2019 – it now has 180, it has been increasing by almost 10% every month. YES – some things are selling – but absolutely NOTHING compared to how many are being listed.

    Northcote and most suburbs in Melbourne (excluding areas like Ivanhoe and Eaglemont where very little movement ever happens) has almost tripled in a month. That is completely bonkers.

    Market is flooding – and gates are about to be opened wide.

  3. Yep house prices won’t collapse until Aussies have something better to pour their money (savings) into, of course it helps that you can leverage a house to 90% of its price, there are not many other investments where that’s possible.
    What can I say RE to the moon!
    and if it’s not your plan to ride this rocket ship then you’d best leave because every other Aussie is committed to burn absolutely everything in sight even if it only makes this rocket ship hover for a little longer.

  4. Stewie GriffinMEMBER

    Kudos to you for coming out and acknowledging it. It is both a sign of your integrity and your faith that politicians and their bureaucrats will ‘do the right thing’ in terms of economic policy and will remain constrained by economic and social cultural constraints, in regards to the pursuit of dubious financial trickery.

    In many ways MB is also constrained by its own ‘Overton Window’ in terms of speculating on future courses of action – the pure cynicism that allowed many people to predict that house prices wouldn’t fall, or wouldn’t fall far, simply isn’t available to social and economic commentators acting in good faith.

    In good faith is important, because even those who got the call right, got it right for reasons that did not lie in good faith – they knowingly placed over weighted faith in prima facie conventional economic responses and themselves did not anticipate or downplayed the possibility of many of the Govt’s without precedent responses.

    The question nowadays isn’t which absurd monetarist theory about the nature of money will be next adopted in order to ‘save the system’ or what hairbrained scheme like accessing super for home buying, that they will put forward. The correct lens nowadays is to simply estimate how much pushback is to be expect from the legacy economic and social cultural values that remain anchored in notions of sound money, and the rightful consequences for issuing enslaving debts.

    The base assumption should be that whatever absurd economic policy floated to ‘save the system’, will be in some way adopted, and instead speculate on how much push back or resistance it will be deployed by the few remaining people of influence to nobble or mitigate it.

    • 2021 hasn’t happened.

      Housing market in Victoria is absolutely flooded with property listings tripling in many suburbs in a matter of weeks – no buyers only sellers.

      The very few sales that are occurring are driving up house prices because they were at zero.

      Boom times – 1 is more than none – and 2 is a 100% house price increase on 1. Well done.

      Go look at the data.

      • You look at the data.
        Stock on Market is STABLE for 6 straight weeks in VIC.
        Sales are now INCREASING week on week.

        VIC Stock on Market is LESS than end of FEB thru to JUN.

        Go watch Phil Lowe RBA webinar October 15 it marked the bottom.

        • You are such a liar – here is Northcote went from 44 to almost 120 – that is an increase of almost 300%

          https://sqmresearch.com.au/total-property-listings.php?sfx=&postcode=Northcote&t=1

          Mate I just went through SQM research for stock on the market – for example Geelong has gone from 80 to 180 houses, Northcote has TRIPLED – and this is the same across the entire city.

          The only place in all of Victoria where houses are not piling up in some tsunami is Gippsland.

          Yes sales are increasing because – wait for this one – we just ended almost and entire YEAR of lock down – with no auctions – so, um derp a derp.

          Again – yes sales are increasing as are prices because 1 is MOAR than none !! And $2 is almost a 100% price increase on $1 – wow – amazing.

          • Are you seriously comparing the number of listings under lockdown with the number of listings post lockdown? Because that is idiotic. Even with the post lockdown ‘surge” your graph shows listings are lower now than in October 2019 when things were normal. In fact, they are lower than any October period since 2013.

          • You are obfuscating the data Crush Loader. You have parroted that stock has jumped 30% 3-4 times across the comments but when you look at the link you sent, the current listings are really tracking along the average. Of course there were fewer listings during the core months of lockdown. A month to month increase of 30% does not make a trend, particularly when the prior month was significantly lower than the average. It is you that needs to learn to interpret a graph.

            I searched a few postcodes to see if it was significantly different elsewhere. Even 3000 is effectively average. Isn’t this where the ghost town is?

    • “(The question is ) how much pushback is to be expected from the legacy economic and social cultural values”
      The answer?: None.
      Simply because any of us who thought that The System could be saved now realise, it can’t. Those ‘in control’ recognised that long before us and knew what we didn’t – that there is no alternative to the impending economic and social destruction. Whatever comes next won’t be what we had; what appeared to work for 50 years – that’s all gone, but I guess it will be something.

      • I don’t think there was ever going to be any pushback from society at large. I did think it would be recognised at the top that it was unsustainable and they would wait for the right moment to basically start reforming it. I thought Covid was that moment. If I was expecting too much then I have little hope for Australia.

      • As far as I can tell the most likely “answer” is social disobedience. (trouble is disobedience is unAustralian)
        Maybe this will take the form of social unrest with some sort of Robin Hood culture developing but I doubt it.
        Or maybe it’ll take the form of people deliberately ignoring the local councils “planning” authority and building whatever they want on any suitable block of available land (probably starting from regional Australia and flowing towards the city peripheral)
        Or maybe it’ll simply result in wide spread disengagement (can’t win so why try?)
        What’s certain is that none of these outcomes bode well for our economic and social /cultural future.

        • I don’t think it’s registered with most people. I’m sure there’s plenty of people that swallow the spruik without question of how ‘ordinary’ people can still make it and ipso facto they can too! Things need to get a lot worse until the point when it is obvious to the most obtuse that wages alone will not suffice to qualify for the correct amount of debt to buy houses. People will only take notice when things get desperate. We haven’t reached that point yet.

      • Stewie GriffinMEMBER

        Simply because any of us who thought that The System could be saved now realise, it can’t. Those ‘in control’ recognised that long before us and knew what we didn’t – that there is no alternative to the impending economic and social destruction.

        The system is the means of our enslavement – it will be saved because finance is the easiest way to enslave the human race, and most submit willingly.

  5. Leith, you think logically and with best interests for the country. This is where your flaws are. Many of us think same.
    CJ is advising the gov on RE so he knew what was coming. Nothing intelligent there – just insider trading. This is my view only.

    • +1

      He knows how the game is rigged and helps to rig it. That makes him morally bankrupt but, alas, also right more often than not.

      • Still… if CJ has insider info, he’s the man to watch.

        I still don’t think the market will crash. My desire is that it will, but I’ve been wrong for over a decade so clearly my judgment and logic are not to be trusted.
        Scomo and Frydenberg have already got the banks primed to give out NINJA loans, so prices will go up faster than a SpaceX rocket.

  6. If you’re relying on CoreLogic data, how would we ever know what’s really going on??
    Why can’t we switch to SQM?

      • Northcote in Melbourne – from 44 to 120 in a single month – it will be double that again next month

        https://sqmresearch.com.au/total-property-listings.php?sfx=&postcode=Northcote&t=1

        Property is piling up like crazy – there are no new buyers, almost no first home buyers and the only action is Home Builders – all of whom are looking to sell to move into their new builds come January, through March.

        Its a complete disaster – like a wave breaking in slow motion.

        • I can only say what I see in my area, specifically my walking patch which is now 5km. Very few For Sale signs and only 2 without Sold sticker on them.
          Yesterday I reported about last empty land in the estate that couldn’t sell a single block for 2 years is almost sold out. This is an area where builders will build over 50 houses and only 2 are not being sold – this from the land owner’s mouth.

          • Except thats not true – you have SQM data right there at your finger tips – I even provided the link.

            Anecdata is ridiculous and you above all people should know that.

          • Maybe empty land is doing quite well due to the home builder incentives etc? Different dynamic compared to established houses.

    • Yup check out Northcote –
      https://sqmresearch.com.au/total-property-listings.php?sfx=&postcode=Northcote&t=1

      If that doesn’t scream housing crash then nothing does. From my analysis we are seeing a build up of stock that took FOUR years from 2015-2019 to build up happen in the space of 4 weeks.

      It really is insane whats happening.

      Geelong is even worse – its exploded out to almost double what it was a few months ago (which is vastly higher number so smaller percentage) – off the charts build up – never seen this before.

  7. “This highlights re-opening international travel and migration as a key part of bolstering rental income from property.”

    This indicates exactly how these people are thinking and what their priorities are.

      • Yes.mike and niko.
        The mass Third World mass immigration ideology is the root cause of the housing price explosion of the past 20 years.
        We reached the sustainability of this madness in 2017, but lowering interest rates, government handouts since then has prevented prices falling further than they would have.
        Even when the treacherous mass Third World immigration program restarts there will not be a rise in housing prices, simply because it will be unaffordable, when take home pay is only $50,000 a year the size of the mortgage becomes unsustainable.
        The mass immigration madness pushes wages down and pushes unemployment/underemployment up and of course house price up…unsustainable.
        The only way prices can go up, is if government gives everyone $100,000 to help them buy a house.
        It’s all over… just give it time to settle down.

  8. Will be interesting next year, I think most are spending big out of lockdown, is it a oneoff, or will they continue to spend.
    I’m happy to invest in QLD, decent returns, don’t care for price appreciation, as long as the rent covers the repayments

  9. If its anything like the NZ market, its about to boom, especially Victoria. Go buy a house now. Sell it in 6 months. Make a motza. I wonder if anyone has quantified the cash savings of all those people who worked from home on full pay? They didnt have to spend on transport, childcare, lunches, restaurant dinners, holidays, new clothes, entertainment, literally the vast majority of people’s disposable income after housing costs went straight into the bank account. And now its time to use that money in conjunction with some “irresponsible lending” to buy some assets that are only going to go up in value due to all the QE.

  10. “The chart above shows that those working in food and accommodation and arts and recreation, have seen devastating job loss through the pandemic. However, those working in this industry are less likely to have mortgage debt.”

    Exactly the argument I made when the COIVD lockdowns were hitting hard. Which was of course smashed as rubbish, backed by plenty of valid, but nonetheless anecdotal examples of those in high income industries also impacted. But in aggregate the data was clear, “those who were likely to hold the assets (and debt) where not feeling the same pain as those who didn’t”.

    It’s why consumption defied consensus, why stock markets, art, classic cars etc etc quickly rebounded after the intital shocks and why (pending some form of outbreak control) a near term housing ‘crash’ remained a remote risk once you factored in fiscal policy and direct bank intervention to pause defaults and foreclosure. Forecasting that was never a brave call…. just a pure probabilistic assessment of the clear facts at hand, and why old mate Joyce is rubbing everyones nose in it again. Now, should the virus saga continue to drag on and we start to question the ability of policy makers to sustain those measures, well then the probabilities and consequences shift again but it doesn’t appear we are there yet.

    All well and good to discuss what ‘should be the case’ but as an investor, that always comes a distant second to ‘what is the case’.

    • Goldstandard1MEMBER

      Your issue is that this isn’t the end game. It’s a point in time after a disaster. The full effects of the disaster is not the present, it’s the near future.

      Place your chips.

  11. I guess Australia is different. They looked at the bubbles in the rest of the world, figured out where they failed, and have determined they are just going to keep it going. My question is, do they REALLY know what they are doing? Or are they just making it up as they go along and getting more and more desperate each time?

    • Jumping jack flash

      The latter of course.
      We will see how they fare with this latest can-kick. It was a good one.

      You can’t look back at the last 10 years of failed attempts of restarting the debt economy with lacklustre interest rate cuts that did nothing to get the debt growing at the correct rate. It wasn’t nearly enough. Our glorious leaders didn’t read the signs well enough. Maybe they didn’t really understand the nature of their system, or maybe they did, but thought “softly, softly” was the right approach? Maybe they had no choice lest they spook the dollar? Whatever the reason for their failure, their actions weren’t good enough by a long shot.

      The way I see it is this latest can-kick released more than 30 billion dollars of super of which a substantial portion will be used for deposits and leveraged at 95%… that’s a lot of money to plonk into the market concentrated over a few months. Will it be enough to get things running again and turn around the last 10 years of ever so gradual deflation? I guess we should know around March/April 2021.

      • Display NameMEMBER

        Super may kick the can for a while. Each time I think there are no more stupid things to can kick, new barriers are broken. ANYTHING will be done to inflate/reflate the bubble. The bubble is now Australia. Little iron ore on the side assisting but not much else.

        • Jumping jack flash

          Right.
          And I believe it will be rescued until complete collapse. What is the alternative? Another lost decade for Australia? We’ve already had one of those. It sucked. Heaps of businesses bust. Rampant wage theft. Lower standards of living. This is probably why they decided to have one last push in the name of COVID.

      • The problem with it all at the moment, if you are an FHB or investor, imo, is that the risks are insane. You are literally relying on the fact that the government will continually be able to pull the property market’s fat out of the fire.

        • FUDINTHENUDMEMBER

          Hmm yep taking fairly heavy risk if you are buying now and dont plan to pay it off in 5-10 years. And that’s with a substantial deposit. Just way to many tail risks over 25-30 years.

          Those taking insane leveraged risk by going in with only 5% to buy some sh1te townhouse are mental. May as well max out your margin account and go long bitcoin. In fact, that sounds like a great idea! No one can ever lose money again! This time truly is different!

  12. Why – Because we have world leading grifters and leaners in the Australian property industry who have garnered world record welfare to artificially prop them up – like: $200Bilion TFF, the AOFM, CGD, Negative gearing, endless FHOAS schemes up yah garzoo – shit they don’t want a real market to exist, we want mum’s tit instead of a market

  13. Goldstandard1MEMBER

    I think this is premature. I sold last year and am renting at least another 12 months as there is simply no support from here for housing- too many headwinds. Hopefully something cracks it ealier than the naturall order of things. I certainly would not be going balls deep in debt when every idiot is going full [email protected]

    • If true, all Governments will be in the same boat, so the restrictions around printing currency / issuing debt are alleviated (i.e. fear of obliterating the currency). Currencies are relative, so net effect of issuing debt will be negligible.

      • Goldstandard1MEMBER

        Thank you Dennis. You are destined to be richer than all of us. Well at least in more debt…..,

  14. IMO rent is significantly higher than mortgage repayments. So a bull market ends when the last bear capitulates.

    I’m certainly about to do so.

    MB has gone to the dark side also. Just need bcnich to capitulate and buy then the whole stinking edifice will collapse.

    What I’ve now got to do is work out the post tax cost of buying a 10-year interest rate futures contract on the ASX so effectively I am locking in low interest rates for a decade.

      • There is the looming end to insolvency relief. This will likely bite when it happens but until then I expect the can to be booted down the road.

        Market forces are so last century.

        We really live in a centrally planned economy now.

        Who needs the CCP? We’re already there.

  15. As I said in another article, a mortgage broker I know last month had his biggest month ever and a real estate licensee has been doing record sales but reckons it’s starting to slow down a littler. I’m thinking the initial frenzy is starting to die down a little.

    • Jumping jack flash

      going gangbusters North Brissy at the moment.

      The agent at an open house my wife went to mentioned afterwards that he had over 100 offers on that one house which was on the more sensible side of debt insanity.
      There’s probably a bit of inflation in that number, but the point is that people are falling over themselves, armed with fistfuls of cheap debt, that is essentially free thanks to COVID.

  16. Kudos to Cameron Murray for understanding what a corrupt little place we are and how Australia Inc Game of Mates operates.
    and as for Mr Joye thanks for clarifying the fact that the purple circle Australia inc Mates will not allow a real market and have learnt how accessed welfare beyond ir wildest dreams of averice

    • working class hamMEMBER

      This. When you finally figure out that it’s actually not a market, but some absurd Govt blackhole that must be fed.