Yesterday, I provided a series of charts from various official government data showing that the international student trade had turned bust due to the COVID-19 pandemic closing Australia’s international border.
Today, The SMH has added further insight, reporting Department of Home Affairs data showing that applications to study in Australia’ have collapsed by 80%:
There are already about 210,000 fewer international students in Australia than would have been expected before Australia shut its borders on March 20…
This includes 135,000 students who are still enrolled but not in the country, and a 75,000 drop in onshore student numbers…
Analysis of international student numbers by Victoria University’s Mitchell Institute shows student visa applications from outside Australia have fallen between 80 per cent and 90 per cent per month since Australia shut its borders on March 19.
Data from the Department of Home Affairs shows that between March and August 2019 there were 137,471 student visa applications from overseas. In the same six-month period this year there were 22,893 applications, a decline of 83 per cent…
In the article, the decline in international student numbers is presented as a negative that could cost the Australian economy up to $20 billion in lost spending.
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However, any objective analysis of the situation would conclude that Australia’s concentration of international students was far too high, dwarfing all other developed nations:
Returning international student numbers back to developed world norms is unambiguously positive for Australia’s labour market, pedagogical standards, and freedom of speech (with respect to Chinese students).
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Don’t expect it to turn around in a hurry, either. Chinese decoupling is real and accelerating and will take in both tourism and student numbers. As well, the developing world from which we draw so many numbers will suffer from the virus much longer than the developed economies as vaccine rollout will be much more difficult owing to poor logistics, difficulty with refrigeration and poor take-up.
Next year’s mid-year intake is the best case for any rebound and that will likely still be far down on 2019.
It’s time Australia’s universities returned to their prime purpose of educating Australians, not acting as back door migration agents earning fat fees from people seeking to permanently live and work in Australia.
Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness.
Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.
