Iron ore prices for November 2, 2020:
Spot lifted but paper was unchanged. Steel has not updated. The steel PMI improved but is still pretty ordinary:
Steel inventories remain huge:
Empties are back on track:
It looks to me that seasonal weakness is over and restocking has resumed. Expect it to run for another two-quarters next year.
Even so, I can’t see iron ore running away here. I expect it trade with wider markets as inventories at ports and supply steadily normalise.
No change then. Firm pricing through March then down in a series of steps in 2021 to an average of $60-70 in H2.
David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal.
He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.
He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.
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