Iron ore prices for November 2, 2020:
Spot lifted but paper was unchanged. Steel has not updated. The steel PMI improved but is still pretty ordinary:
Steel inventories remain huge:
Empties are back on track:
It looks to me that seasonal weakness is over and restocking has resumed. Expect it to run for another two-quarters next year.
Even so, I can’t see iron ore running away here. I expect it trade with wider markets as inventories at ports and supply steadily normalise.
No change then. Firm pricing through March then down in a series of steps in 2021 to an average of $60-70 in H2.