Iron ore prices for November 24, 2020:
A weak response to the global fireworks from spot. Paper too. Perhaps some of the obvious cooling in underlying Chinese demand drivers is starting to permeate the market. Empties are still trending lower:
Moreover, post-COVID global normalisaion is iron ore bearish. We can already see this in China’s fading stimulus and renewed reform push in credit markets. If China can rely on external demand then it will slow credit divers internally and that means less commodity-intensive investment.
With Brazilian supply rebounding materially, I expect iron ore to be the outstanding global commodity loser in 2021.
He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.
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