Iron ore prices for November 16, 2020:
Empties have crashed again:
Indeed, yesterday’s China data showed the real estate sector is fading fast. Prices are barely positive. The leading indicator of developer land sales are down 3.3% YTD. New starts are down 2.6% YTD and roughly flat now YOY for a few months.
Chinese realty is enjoying catch-up growth from the early year virus crash which is keeping activity very strong. But the top of the pipeline is weakening and as the “pig in the pipe” clears and underlying sales and floor area stalls, residential construction is going decelerate fast into 2021.
With supply booming, as soon as the Chinese port restocking episode ends, iron ore is going halve.
He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.
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