The Department of Home Affairs has released Temporary entrants visa holders data, which reveals that the number of temporary visas on issue in Australia fell by around 420,000 in the year to September 2020.
The below table provides the major changes by sub-category:
The below charts plot the changes across the major sub categories.
First, temporary bridging visas have ballooned, roughly tripling in number since 2012. The longer-term problems with these visas are well documented. However, the latest surge – increasing 109,000 in the year to September – likely reflects the federal government granting bridging visas to migrants unable to return home due to travel restrictions pertaining to the COVID-19 pandemic.
Second, we have the all-important international student visas which, after years of extreme growth, plunged 157,000 in the year to September due to travel bans pertaining to the COVID-19 pandemic. This category should remain depressed for the foreseeable future.
Next, temporary visitor visas plunged 251,000 in the year to September amid border closures:
Working holidaymaker visas also roughly halved in the year to September, down 70,000, which helps to explain the recent bleating from farmers about “skills shortages”:
Next, temporary employment visas (skilled and other) have been falling since 2015. However, they fell by 31,800 in the year to September:
Finally, temporary graduate visas have surged since 2014 and rose by 13,200 in the year to September 2020. This reflects the prior explosion in international student visas and will likely fall with a lag:
Overall, the huge decline in temporary visas is great news for Australia’s labour market, since the decline in supply will help to lower unemployment and put a floor under wages.
The total drop in visas equates to a staggering 45% of Australia’s current total unemployed (although not all were participating in the labour market).
