How will Trump launch his coup?

Ther latest poll averages have Biden still cruising to a win at the headline level:

And battleground states:

Plus betting markets:

The Economist has also declared its polling for a Democratic senate:

We’re all jaded about polls. Watch the below video from FiveThirtyEight. It captures what happened to 2016 polls and how they’ve reformed their methodologies since:

This points to a few issues for me.

Everyone likes to talk about those uneducated voters not telling pollsters the truth about their intentions to vote Trump. But that is surely no longer the case. From what I see, Trump supporters are the most vocal in the universe today.

The pollster’s post-2016 weightings are designed to capture this phenomenon. But, if it no longer exists, then are their weightings, in fact, now underdoing the Democratic vote?

Finally, ever since COVID-19 took off, Trump polling has suffered most when the virus kills more people, as you’d expect. That is the case right now:

It looks to me like the ‘blue wave’ is still the base case. Not that that matters much if Nouriel Roubini is right:

More ominous is the prospect of a long-contested result, with both sides refusing to concede as they wage ugly legal and political battles in the courts, through the media, and on the streets. In the contested 2000 election, it took until December 12 for the matter to be decided: the Supreme Court ruled in favor of George W. Bush, and his Democratic opponent, Al Gore, gracefully conceded. Rattled by the political uncertainty, the stock market during this period fell by more than 7%. This time, the uncertainty could last for much longer – perhaps even months – implying serious risks for the markets.

This nightmare scenario must be taken seriously, even if it currently seems unlikely. While Biden has consistently led in the polls, so, too, had Hillary Clinton on the eve of the 2016 election. It remains to be seen if there will be a slight surge in “shy” swing-state Trump voters who are unwilling to reveal their true preferences to pollsters.

Moreover, as in 2016, massive disinformation campaigns (foreign and domestic) are underway. US authorities have warned that Russia, China, Iran, and other hostile foreign powers are actively trying to influence the election and cast doubt on the legitimacy of the balloting process. Trolls and bots are flooding social media with conspiracy theories, fake news, deep fakes, and misinformation. Trump and some of his fellow Republicans have embraced lunatic  like QAnon, and signaled their tacit support of white supremacist groups. In many Republican-controlled states, governors and other public officials are openly deploying dirty tricks to suppress the votes of Democratic-leaning cohorts.

On top of all this, Trump has repeatedly claimed – falsely – that mail-in ballots cannot be trusted, because he anticipates that Democrats will comprise a disproportionate share of those not voting in person (as a pandemic-era precaution). He also has refused to say that he will relinquish power if he loses, and has instead given a wink and a nod to right-wing militias (“stand back and stand by”) that have already been sowing chaos in the streets and plotting acts of domestic terrorism. If Trump loses and resorts to claiming that the election was rigged, violence and civil strife could be .

Indeed, if the initial reported results on election night do not immediately indicate a sweep for the Democrats, Trump would almost certainly declare victory in battleground states before all mail-in ballots have been counted. Republican operatives already have plans to suspend the counting in key states by challenging such ballots’ validity. They will be waging these legal battles in Republican-controlled state capitals, local and federal courts stacked with , a Supreme Court with a 6-3 conservative majority, and a House of Representatives where, in the event of an Electoral College draw, Republicans hold the majority of state delegations.

At the same time, all of the white armed militias currently “standing by” could take to the streets to foment violence and chaos. The goal would be to provoke leftist counter-violence, giving Trump a pretext to invoke the Insurrection Act and deploy federal law enforcement or the US military to restore “law and order” (as he has previously threatened to do). With this endgame apparently in mind, the Trump administration has already designated several major Democratic-led cities as “anarchist hubs” that may need to be put down. In other words, Trump and his cronies have made clear that they will use any means necessary to steal the election; and, given the wide range of tools at the executive branch’s disposal, they could succeed if early election results are close, rather than showing a clear Biden sweep.

To be sure, if early results on election night show Biden with a strong lead even in traditionally Republican states such as North Carolina, Florida, or Texas, Trump would find it much harder to contest the result for more than a few days, and he would concede sooner. The problem is that anything short of a clear Biden landslide will leave an opening for Trump (and the foreign governments supporting him) to muddy the waters with chaos and disinformation as they maneuver to shift the final decision to more sympathetic venues such as the courts.

This degree of political instability could trigger a major risk-off episode in financial markets at a time when the economy is already slowing and the near-term prospects for additional policy stimulus remain grim. If an election dispute drags on – perhaps into early next year – stock prices could fall by as much as 10%, government bond yields would decline (though they are already quite low), and the global flight to safety would push gold prices higher. Usually in this type of scenario, the US dollar would strengthen; but, because this particular episode would have been triggered by US-based political chaos, capital might actually flee from the dollar, leaving it weaker.

One thing is certain: a highly contested election would cause further damage to America’s global image as an exemplar of democracy and the rule of law, eroding its soft power. Particularly over the past four years, the country has increasingly come to be regarded as a political basket case. While hoping that the chaotic outcomes outlined above do not come to pass – polls still show a strong lead for Biden – investors should be preparing for the worst, not just on election day but in the weeks and months thereafter.

To be honest, I think Dr Doom is overdoing this. The one great asset that the US has on its side if this fight comes to pass is Donald Trump himself. A few tweets do not a coup make. These are the tactical outbursts of an unhinged president.

Trump will need a very cleverly constructed series of strategies to destroy American democracy.  He would need to have thoroughly discredited the electoral process when he has only pinged a few tweets, to have mass on-the-ground command and control of insurgent supporters who more appear a protest rabble, to have recruited the personal loyalty of supreme court judges not just lean on conservative instincts and today we have seen attempted mail-in voter suppression struck down, as well as to have quietly recruited top generals to his cause when he is largely disliked by the military.

I expect that Trump will do with his coup what he has done with most other stuff he has touched.

Balls it up.

David Llewellyn-Smith
Latest posts by David Llewellyn-Smith (see all)

Comments

  1. It’s just Trump being Trump. He will say anything if he thinks it might get him what he wants. Doesn’t mean he has any plans or even intentions to do so.

    I think if there were behind-the-scenes contingency plans to keep him in power if he loses, we would have heard about them.

    No, what will happen is, he will go into media in some form and we will never hear the last of him complaining.

    • Wrong. Trumpy knows he if finished if he loses. The dark forces he enables will lose big too.
      They WILL crash democracy to stay in power if they have a chance.

    • It looks like Trump derangment syndrome is widely prevalent in Australia also.
      Let’s stand back and consider some facts:

      1) The public polls were totally BS in 2016 and I suspect they are the same in 2020
      2) Trump has delivered on what he promised
      3) Biden is clearly a crook. He has engaged in massive bribery with compelling evidence from Hunters laptop and his former business partner
      4) Trumps rallies are huge with thousands of enthusiastic supporters – Biden is mostly in the basement and rallies with 30-50 people
      5) Biden is clearly suffering congnitive decline. Without the teleprompter the gaffes would be coming virtually continuously.

        • “and the cohesion of the nation – issues he has sought to exploit rather than address”

          It is amazing to me people have this so backwards. It is division the dems have sowed since he won. They said his victory was illegitimate and fraudulent. Lots of people believe it (Russiagate). They say he is racist and fascist (lots believe it).

          It isn’t Trump supporters or Trump that are:

          – rioting and looting
          – cancelling people
          – doxxing people
          – having people fired from their jobs for their political views
          – harassing people at restaurants
          – accosting officials on the street

          Who is actually sowing the division and using Orewellien tactics to do it?

    • “Never doubt the stupidity of people in large groups”

      Add guns to the mix and its a disaster.

      Remember, it wasn’t that long ago a bunch of armed Americans stormed the local council because they were asked to wear masks.

    • Agreed. The guy is more buffoon and bluster than anything else – this is his style.

      I just can’t get onboard with the Emperor Palpatine parallels.

      And as for Roubini’s claim that foreign powers are doing their damnedest to get the right man elected ….

        • Parallels with the fall of the Roman Empire are probably about right. Brazen debauchery, corruption, public and private sector morality at a low ebb, money printing at a cracking rate. Yep, sounds quite like it.

  2. It’s actually a testament to the American system that a dictator can’t emerge. This whole thing with Trump should be ultimately viewed as a positive that the American democratic system can withstand this kind of pressure.

    • They don’t need a dictator to cause problems; the problem is a potentially fascist party, with ‘true American’ nationalist backing that is quite comfortable with what is actually nationalist/fascist leanings (but can’t put such words to it), and who are obsessed and entitled to their arbitrary notions of culture.

      It would be a large and entitled group of, effectively, fascists vs other people; the former having already polluted systems of power to claim pseudo-legitimacy.

  3. Many ballots are going to be rejected

    As someone put it :
    “Filling out a ballot and mailing it correctly can be a challenge for people who have never filled out a tax form”

    Fortunately the GOP has now the Supreme Court
    LOL

    Dont worry, Joe will most likely win (but he will not last long, Harris will be POTUS).WallStreet/BigTech/Billionaires rejoice.

  4. It should be fair dinkum mind-boggling to any sane person that the fundamental democratic acts of voting and tallying up said vote are now politicised and controversial.

    For all the flaws in our system, at least we don’t have any serious issues preventing people from casting votes and tallying the result.

  5. “On top of all this, Trump has repeatedly claimed – falsely – that mail-in ballots cannot be trusted, because he anticipates that Democrats will comprise a disproportionate share of those not voting in person (as a pandemic-era precaution). He also has refused to say that he will relinquish power if he loses, and has instead given a wink and a nod to right-wing militias (“stand back and stand by”) that have already been sowing chaos in the streets and plotting acts of domestic terrorism. ”

    Is he dreaming? What violence have the Proud Boys / QAnon or Trump supporters actually committed on the streets, versus what BLM and Antifa is currently perpetrating? It is miniscule in comparison. They are two sides of the same coin anyway. Is anyone watching the “protests” in Philly? It is laughable. Just a pretext to loot!

    He asserts that mail in ballots cannot be trusted, but supplies no evidence as to their veracity. Is he confused with absentee ballots, like many people seem to be? It’s not the same thing. Mail in ballots ensure thousands of fraudulent ballets will be counted, and not just for Democrats – there will be long dead people receiving mail in ballots. However, the Dems have (probably accurately) surmised it will work in their favour. They also wanted it to avoid another October surprise.

    The rest of what he is saying is pretty spot on. The best result next week will be a CLEAR winner, whether that is Biden or Trump.

      • The site is turning Zero hedgey with its headlines anyway. Click bait and views = money. This site is about money, not independent thought or actual journalism. It aggregates stories from other sites. The owners are in other ventures, and good on them, but this site couldn’t hold its jockstrap compared to what it was when it was founded. The intellectual discourse in the comments years ago was superior too.

      • I’ve never read the comments until recently. I was referring to the DLS’s posts in particular. I’ve always valued them for their objectivity and level headedness. But in the past few months they’ve taken on a different character–it feels as if he’s trying to write the world he wants into existence, rather than calmly filter noise from signal as is his normal MO. Hopefully, after the election (however it turns out) he’ll have exorcised whatever has gotten in to him and return to form.

      • I always thought that TDS was about how worked up his supporters got about him. I didn’t realise until recently it was what the supporters said to accuse others of being unable to think clearly and reasonably around topics that involve Trump. It could also be the title of the collected works of his speeches, press conferences and tweets since deciding to run for President.

        • Narapoia451MEMBER

          I was under the impression for the longest time that it referred to the phenomenon of his supporters being willing to believe what he says, despite Trump’s thousands upon thousands of documented on-the-record lies. Apparently the derangement being referred to is pointing out the lies in the eyes of these folks and being unwilling to look past his incompetence and myriad incompatibilities with the role he currently occupies. All this has left me pretty much convinced that my original interpretation is the correct one.

        • Examples of TDS:
          1. Trump is H1tler incarnate
          2. Trump may have saved a child from drowning but what he did was evil anyway (it must have been, right, cause he did it)
          3. And so on …

          Does that give you a flavour? Or should I say, ‘flavor’

    • and who is going to back him up? Military is against him as he did not allow any war. Military complex can’t wait for Joe to win or come clse to winning so they can back him.
      My view is it will be Joe who will steal the elections. If results are too close to call.

      • Military is against him as he did not allow any war.

        Plenty of existing wars, no need for a new one. Military budget has increased under Trump and there’s certainly no shortage of sh!t being blown up (though given the ongoing lack of transparency there’s no way to tell how much).

        The bigger reason the military would be 50/50 at best on backing Trump, IMHO, is the naked contempt he and his crew have show for pretty much every tradition and institution in the land. Military folks tend to be pretty big on those sorts of things, and unless they’re thirsty for a Military Coup pretty much entirely disinterested in having to step in and run the country.

        My view is it will be Joe who will steal the elections. If results are too close to call.

        How ?

        • “the naked contempt he and his crew have show for pretty much every tradition and institution in the land” – yes, and weaponised the contempt.

          I keep saying it, but Trump is a threat to the system itself – in a fascist way, not a ‘drain the swamp’ way…

          He only really wants to ‘drain the swamp’ to set up a gold course for his own pleasure, so to speak…

    • I agree that he’s not quite competent to pull something off….but I am almost certain he will try something…

      It’s not him you have to worry about – directly – it’s the people around him that he enables.

      Trump (and his kids) will be happy to just walk away being even more rich and notorious. Kind of like how Melania is an innocent gold digger suddenly caught way out of her comfort zone.

      The people around him, however, want to fundamentally redirect and reshape American society.

      • I agree with you. I thought it was quite obvious.

        I find it demoralising that so many are willing to overlook / re-interpret such things, primarily because Trump represents a vehicle to promote their preferred cultural changes.

        I think the GOP and Dems are both bad in many ways; but Trump and his more devoted supporters seem happy to erode the system in order to achieve their ends. Sure, the system isn’t perfect, and the culture has many problems, but it’s also holding a lot together.

  6. He would need to have thoroughly discredited the electoral process when he has only pinged a few tweets, […]

    Say what ? The groundwork to suppress, discredit and ultimately discard postal votes has been underway for 6+ months.

    • I would have thought the Supreme court can only throw out the postal votes on Legal or constitutional grounds. As in they break the law or are unconstitutional. Even with a 6 – 3 majority it would think that is a stretch.

      I have watched a few youtube videos regarding this by a US Lawyer, He indicated it was a long stretch to get that sort of result.

      • The stage isn’t being set for the lawyers, it’s being set for the True Believers.

        Though plenty of work has gone into undermining the USPS as well, potentially impacting its ability to deliver the postal votes in time to be counted.

        As I said above, it is mind-boggling that the fundamental democratic processes of simply enabling people to vote and tallying the result has become politicised and controversial.

  7. Early polling is looking pretty good for Trump in some key states.

    Trump supporters have been out getting people registered to vote. The democrats lead for registered voters is down significantly.

    Have you see a trump rally and then compare to sleepy joe or Kahmelah?

    Ask a Biden supporter why they are going to Vote for Biden without mentioning Trump. It’s fun to watch the gears really grind to come up with a real reason.

    • Trump got in in 2016 as voters could not stand Hillary, This time Joe will probably get in as voters cannot stand Trump.

      There is so much TDS around ( unfortunately on MB as well) that I really really wish for a clear Trump win in Florida just to enjoy the tears

    • Actually, I’d suggest that Trump and Trumpettes are such a clear-and-present danger to the integrity of US democracy that it’s actually quite fair to have no other reason to vote for the Dems than just getting rid of him. Sure, the US has had serious problems for decades, but Trump is a psycho happy to exploit, rip and tear at those issues for his gain.

        • With respect, if you really need to have someone else answer that query, then therein lays one of the key problems here – a lack of discernment, and a comfort with with viewing a destabilising leadership culture, rhetoric and actions as acceptable on the basis of achieving perceived end results.

          We should not have to wait until certain hazards are manifest to call them out as problematic? Surely this is a precept of wisdom?

          We have enough precedents to be able to discern that Trump et al are problematic.

          • Still waiting. You haven’t listed anything undemocratic. Leadership culture and rhetoric come down to perception and what actually leaks from the WH. What democratic institution or “norm” has the Trump administration undermined?

            I see one party wanting to eliminate the filibuster and stack the supreme court. This is the same party that launched a fake Russia collusion scam ( AND IT IS FAKE) then followed it with an equally ridiculous impeachment. Democrats are actually the ones that are subverting Democracy by insisting a FAIRLY and publicly elected President is somehow illegitimate? Their actions are the ones that are undermining faith in Democratic institutions, not the other way around.

            If anyone here believes in Russiagate, why don’t you show the rest of us even a single skerrick of actual evidence? You can’t. Because their is none. What you have is $100k of Facebook ad buys, half of which were positive for Democrats and indictments or nothing to do with Russia collusion, but rather the process crimes of unregistered foreign lobbying. Someone, anyone, is their any evidence of this at all?

          • Yep, OK, mate.

            Not worth my time being detailed; nor is it worth your time reading it.

            Let’s just let it roll. Let it rip.

            Consequences later.

            I’m almost over trying to warn on anything at all. I spend most of my career tidying up the forewarned and forseeable consequences of others’ actions, so I really should be used to it.

            Let it all rip.

            Then let’s say resultant problems were due to other lower-quality claims.

          • @ Burb, So not locking down is subverting democratic norms? Is this your assertion? The exact opposite is actually true. And this is whether you believe in lockdown or not. If he is subverting norms it should be easy to list them….perhaps like court stacking? The reality is that for a so called fascist he is doing a poor job.

          • JC, just quickly: for the president to say they will not accept anything but an election win on the basis of systemic failures without significant precedent should be very, very concerning to anyone – it ought to be enough to overwhelm other positions, as such as threat is existential. You don’t ‘wait and see for ‘evidence” in such a case as that – you just cut it out before it becomes a problem. Surely that it wise?

            I say that there are many other things that bolster such a case.

            Trump hasn’t been able to be grossly democractically inappropriate because the system has tied him up too much to achieve much more in 4 years; but he’s been chipping away at it, and casting cultural doubt on the system pretty much the whole time.

            People see Trump as an alternative to their democracy. That’s a problem.

          • ” for the president to say they will not accept anything but an election win on the basis of systemic failures without significant precedent should be very, very concerning to anyone”

            He has actually said he would accept it, providing everything is fair and there is no evidence of widespread fraud. If he loses and loses clearly he will concede. If there is evidence of widespread fraud, should a sitting president concede an election decided by a few thousand votes should be the real question, or should they demand a recount?

          • It is highly unlikely that there will be any widespread fraud; it’s my understanding that there is no precedent for it, so why invoke it as something to consider now? That’s a rhetorical question…

            When put into context, it’s a pseudo-honest thing to say, as there is no reason to actually say it. The higher-quality interpretation is, for example, that it is something that someone says if they want to poison the well. Surely you can see this, too?

        • What democratic norms is he subverting?

          The fairly unsubtle insistence (and subsequent True Believer hysteria) that the only way he could lose the election is through fraud seems an obvious one.

          • No, that’s just how you get a number of my fellow Christians to vote for you; that and opposing abortion (which I don’t like, but I consider more than just that). Then you’ve got enough of them to win an election.

            Carrot, stick.

            Wolf, sheep.

            Power-obsession, political theatre.

            Wisdom vs sub-cultural intersection.

            Sigh. 🙁

    • Ask a Biden supporter why they are going to Vote for Biden without mentioning Trump. It’s fun to watch the gears really grind to come up with a real reason.

      Indeed. Some version of “making the lefties suffer” (overwhelmingly the most common reason expressed on MB in support of Trump) is a much “realer” reason.

      • This is a problem I have observed, too – so many seem OK with tolerating Trump’s and the Trumpettes’ democracy and unity acid because they are ‘anti woke’.

        Sure, people might be sick of it (like ‘woke’ people might be sick of certain people groups being trodden on), but it’s not good enough a reason to hand more power to someone like that – tight rules, laws and precedents exist EXACTLY for such people; unfortunately, they are also VERY good at finding vague wriggle room between such rules and laws in order to further their agenda using other kinds of ‘power’, particularly cultural and pseudo-moral (and, thus, political) appeals.

        I guess it’s called manipulation.

    • Ronin8317MEMBER

      Trump is doing very well in Florida, but the cyclone means the next few days will be hard to convert anything into a trend.

      Pennsylvania is the real battleground, and it’s not looking good for Trump right now. If it becomes close, this is where the Supreme Court can make a big difference as the Governor is Democrat.

  8. This election is between the Trumpers and the anti Trumpers. No one is actively voting for Biden/Kamala. My guess is that the Trumpers will be more enthused to actually vote than the ANYBODY but Trump brigade. I also think the anti Trumpster numbers are blown out of proportion by the media hype. On top of that i reckon many Moderate Trumpers are staying silent so as not to expose themselves to being targeted but will still turn up to vote. Just my guesses. I suppose we will all know in a week or so.

  9. Trump’s coup will probably look like any other coup :
    1/ Public service refusing to do their jobs because they didn’t vote for the democratically elected President and fomenting discord and sabotaging work practices.
    2/ Public declarations of being part of a “ resistance “.
    3/ Cancelling and delegitimising anyone who admits to voting for the president.
    4/ Undermining the President’s authority by claiming he was elected as the result of foreign interference.
    5/ Try to legally remove him from office through farcical claims of foreign interference. Unjustified Legal threats should mar and malign every moment of the presidency.
    6/Launch a destined-to-fail impeachment attempt in order to further delegitimise the President.
    7/Use partisan media to hamper and harass the president at every turn. Claim the president is following in the footsteps of the most hated humans to have ever existed despite zero actual resemblance in word or deed. The media should paint every single action and statement from the president in the worst possible light. Lie outright if no malignant spin is possible.
    8/ Gaslight the public into believing that the president is a racist / white supremacist / sexist / xenophobe / misogynist / fascist / Nazi / dictator / foreign plant .
    9/ Enable and foment , perhaps even organise , widespread low level violence , anarchy and social disruption .
    10 / Get allies in Big Tech to censor viewpoints generous to the president whilst smothering news which may compromise the opposing candidate prior to the election.
    11/ Prepare the community for the theft of the election by the opposing candidate whilst simultaneously declaring the president has already destroyed democracy by taking up the presidency he was elected to.

    If that doesn’t work then just refuse to concede defeat and get your backers in Big Tech / Legacy media and anarchist groups to take the White House by brute force.

      • Funny, I equate ‘banana republic’ with places so uncivilized that women are forbidden to have abortions. You know, shytehole countries, that the US is well on the way to becoming.

        • Straw man, but it won’t get overturned anyway. I would equate a banana republic with a country that lets you abort a baby all the way until conception. Why not just allow abortion when they are one years old and walking around? The current democratic view of abortion is EVIL!!!

          Abortion in the USA needs common sense and a compromise from both sides like here in AUSTRALIA! The Republicans need to compromise on allowing it and the Dems need to stop being a bunch of sickos and recognise that aborting a baby after 20 weeks should be VERY VERY restricted! Abortion in most Australian states after 20 weeks is illegal unless there is a very good reason.

          • Another know-nothing comment. Generally in Oz, abortions are allowed on request up to 24 weeks of pregnancy, with abortions after that time, up until the child’s birth, requiring two doctors to agree that it is appropriate, based on the woman’s current and future physical, psychological and social circumstances.

          • Some states it is 24, others 16, some 20, some 14, then requiring 2 x doctors to sign off and agree that it is detrimental to your health , mental or physical is not as easy as it sounds, especially late term. In any case, there is an actual process and you need to have VALID and endorsed reasons to abort after these periods.

            The real question is, do you support it at 7, 8 or 9 months like Democrats do?

          • I should add, without the two x doctors signing off it is indeed illegal for anyone to perform and abortion after those prescribed periods.

          • How many times would a woman want to Abort a baby after 16 weeks and there not be a justifiable medical reason. This is just a non argument that is designed to prevent a minuscule edge case while screwing over people with legitimate reasons.

          • The real question is, do you support it at 7, 8 or 9 months like Democrats do?

            No, the only question is: do you think a woman should be able to get an abortion whenever she wants to ?

            Because nobody except the woman concerned, and to a small degree her doctor, should be involved in the decision.

            While in reality only a vanishingly small percentage of abortions are late-term, and typically carried out for medical reasons with great trauma to the ex-mother, misogynists have a persistent fantasy that not only are they commonplace, but the only thing discouraging most women from getting pregnant and carrying a baby to 8 months term just so they can cackle like a cartoon villain as it’s torn to pieces and ripped from their womb, is the law that would punish them from doing so.

            The best ways to minimise late term (and mid-term) abortions are:
            * Comprehensive and early Sex Education.
            * Trivially accessible contraceptives.
            * Trivially accessible [“early term”] abortions.

            All of which, typically, the same people with the vapours about late-term abortions are vehemently opposed to – because their concerns have abso-fvking-lutely nothing whatsoever to do with abortions.

          • Stewie GriffinMEMBER

            That’s what happens when you put aside your contrive morals and ask the question of what you are really supporting, and the outcomes they will really deliver to society – which in this case happen to be exactly what a real eugenicist or a real Nazi (as opposed to the victims of your verbal slurs) might hope for.

            As you were, there is lots more road for you to pave before you get to where you are going….

          • That’s what happens when you put aside your contrive morals and ask the question of what you are really supporting, and the outcomes they will really deliver to society – which in this case happen to be exactly what a real eugenicist or a real Nazi (as opposed to the victims of your verbal slurs) might hope for.

            Indeed. Eugenicists and Nazis were renowned for never using coercion. The similarity to anti-abortion rights is unmistakable.

            Hilariously hypocritical how you’re fine to look at abortion statistics and conclude rac!smgenocide to suite your argument, but pillory anyone doing the same thing with basically anything else like inequality or crime.

          • Stewie GriffinMEMBER

            Lolol – the same thing explains the differences in population group abortion statistics as explains inequality and crime.

            You can provide all the “sex education” in the world and it still ain’t going to fix stup!d and make them listen, just like all the education in the world hasn’t been able to lift SAT results one meaningful iota.

            A mean IQ of 85 means:

            “You can’t get pregnant while having sex standing up.”

            “You can’t get pregnant if he doesn’t come in you.”

            “I forgot to take my birth control pills – again”

            “Yeah we had sex education class, but we just got high”

            Expecting a different outcome through “sex education” making as much difference for solving that social problem as all the other “educations” have had at closing other gaps.

            Ignoring the inevitability of DUMB makes you sound about the same as a Sunday church preacher recommending you cross your legs to avoid getting pregnant.

          • Stewie GriffinMEMBER

            The only change of direction is your’s, when you hit a fact that you don’t like, 85 for instance, which explains far more about the rac!al “injustices” you see everywhere and futilly try to explain with theories on microscopic, trace amounts of discrimination that are so cunningly hidden that they have to be sniffed out with an electron grievance microscope.

  10. “…to have recruited the personal loyalty of supreme court judges not just lean on conservative instincts and today we have seen attempted mail-in voter suppression struck down, as well as to have quietly recruited top generals to his cause when he is largely disliked by the military.”

    Seriously….take your medication and double the dose next week. The cheese has slid off your cracker.

  11. pro-scienceMEMBER

    Relying on fake polls and fake news media leads to the wrong conclusion. Trump will win in a landslide as Dr Steve Turley has clearly explained over the past few months.

  12. The inescabable partisan dribble is mostly certainly wearing on everyone, the above post included.

    “If Trump loses and resorts to claiming that the election was rigged, violence and civil strife could be highly likely.”

    It is clear to anyone with even a passing interest in the world around them, that the following statement reasonably applies to a close election outcome from either side. To suggest that a surprise Trump win would be cast by the other side as anything but fraud and foreign influence is partisan to the point of delusion, it’s already the implied offical democratic party position FFS?

    To believe that the entire anti-trump cohort will just accept a result and peacefully pack up and disperse in the event of a Biden loss you’re either a moron or a liar.

    This isn’t Hollywood and yet here we are entertaining some B grade ‘white house down’ script? Surely MB can tone down the Gerad Butler BS. Putting aside the hyperbole, the only way any traditionally “peaceful” transition is occurring is in the event of a landslide to Biden. By the way, there is no such thing as ‘peaceful recriminations’ which will be agenda item number 1 for the next 4 years at least under Joe. So every scenario appears to = buckle up, we ain’t going back to objectivity or civility any time soon.

    As for this ‘stealing’ elections narrative, used solely to justify any and all tactics necessary to win and ‘save democracy’…really? And this is being peddled by the self described ‘enlightened’ among us? Trump really has set the bar for acceptable behaviour!

  13. Llewellyn Smith restates the Democrat anti Trump spin & lies. (Trump coup).

    The only coups attempted in recent US history has been the fake Russian Narrative (Obama authorised, Clinton funded, orchestrated by John Brennan, Obama’s CIA Director in corrupting the CIA, FBI & NSA in highly politicised frame ups and lies), then the 2016-2017 attempted general strike (John Brennan), the failed Mueller witch-hunt (Russian Narrative proven as false), and the then last ditch effort by Brennan and Ciramella on the ‘Ukraine impeachment’ when Joe Biden’s corruption in Ukraine was exposed by the new Ukraine government. Which ended in a spiteful abuse of the house majority in a ‘faux impeachment’ overruled by the Senate.

    The US Democrats in opposition have resorted to every dirty trick in paid off mainstream & social media smear, weaponised the intelligence agencies, spies and lies in repeated attempted coup d’états,

    Then finally the Democrat open incitement of their white trash and black criminals mobs to racial violence, looting and burning. As we saw.

    There is little doubt the Democrats will resort to mass ballot / voter fraud as their usual tactic in trying to steal the 2020 election.

    Donald Trump has been the most scrutinised US President.
    He not only survived that scrutiny & these Democrat coup d’état & insurgencies attempts, and he defeated them.

    👉🏾 The US public know all this.

    But that clearly hasn’t filtered down into the left wing socialist media in Australia, or those who repeat the Democrats tired old proven lies.

    -/-

    The US voters now face the choice of Donald Trump who delivered MAGA and good government, despite the Democrat attempts to deny Americans their democratic choice of Trump (ECV majority 57%).

    Or else their other choice is the Democrats.
    A corrupt skeletal weak creepy lying Joe Biden, a Tamil Indian raisin brained poseur Kamala Harris – as a front for a highly unstable & dangerous Democrat party.
    A Democrat party riven with left wing radical socialist and racial separatist factions.
    A Democrat party who did not provide an effective opposition (resorting instead to attempted coups / smears and mass media lies) and certainly won’t provide good government.

    Now if the Democrats are successful in mass voter fraud, which they will attempt..
    … Trump is well within his rights to dispute the election results and have it decided by the courts.

    That’s not a coup d’état.
    That’s is the predetermined legal process in ensuring the election is conducted legitimately and that US democracy is preserved.

    To not challenge the expected Democrat voter fraud would be a coup d’état.
    An illegitimate Democrat party elected by fraud.
    That’s what’s at stake here.
    And it’s interesting how the Democrats spin any attempt by Trump saying that of the election result is found to fraudulent it will go to the courts as ‘that’s Trump attempting a coup’…
    when the truth is exactly the opposite.

      • It’s the deboonka! Well debunked. Can you give us a link from totally not politically biased rationalwiki, because you’re so rational and amenable to counter evidence and you totally don’t try and lol away your nebula size dissonance.

        • coup
          1. a sudden, violent, and illegal seizure of power from a government.

          Notably lacking from the supposed coup: “sudden”, “violent”, “illegal”, “seizure of power”.

      • Well I patiently explained socialism to you, in simple terms (an eventually fascist or totalitarian elitist representation of the collective – on behalf of the ‘unrepresented masses’ (peasantry/workers/gender/climate alarmists/criminal illegals/oppressed etc)
        And all I got from you was a whole bunch of waffle from you that actually said exactly the same!

        You clearly don’t even understand what you cut and paste.

        The point is that the basis of socialism is collectivism, and then representation of that collective via an elite in the political process.

        Collectivism – communism or pan ethnic socialism, then evolved into national socialism (Nazi = National Socialist German Workers Party) that placed the ethnic group collection above pan ethnic communism.

        The two main virulent warring strains of socialism.
        Tens of millions dead.

        Both strains of left wing socialism deny individualism, always run by a fascist (it means totalitarian) elite.

        And a political and social order that has failed globally .

        All the communist or pan ethnic socialist nations are now openly national socialist or Nazi (racist ethnic first collectivist socialist run by a corrupted elitist regime)
        The Soviet Union communist (pan ethnic socialism) breakup into the highly racist Russia, Ukraine, the ‘Stans’, racially aligned socialist collectivism.
        China now an openly Han Chinese racist or National Socialist fascist (totalitarian) regime.
        North Korea, Vietnam, Venezuela, etc – all racially aligned national socialist corrupted elitist dictatorships.

        This is what you back?

        You barely understand it.

        You are of course a ‘socialist in name’ only.

        A suburban nobody who fetishes left wing Socialist ideology, but would be the first to complain if you actually had to live under such a regime.

        • Well I patiently explained socialism to you […]

          Well, you explained your idea of “socialism”, but it bore little resemblence to the actual definition of “socialism”.

          It was almost as absurd as your notion that the King’s loyal subjects were the origins of individual rights when the very concept was fundamentally antithetical to their beliefs.

          Or are you going to try and argue that democracy is “collectivism” and therefore evil ?

          And a political and social order that has failed globally .

          On the contrary. The social democracies of the 20th century produced the greatest and broadest uplifts in wealth, technology and living standards in human history precisely because of the wider distribution of wealth and power that political and social system brought with it. The world’s highest living standards are found in the social democracies of Northern Europe.

          Unfortunately, before the relentless onslaught of Conservatism, improvement has been slowed, if not reversed, particularly in the Anglosphere.

    • The election process will go pretty much as all the others have – overwhelmingly just fine; this is the precedent.

      Questioning this axiomatically, and throwing it out before the fact, is the by Trump and Trumpeters are behaving dangerously and undemocratically.

  14. You’re dubious that the shy trump voter effect will manifest itself again.

    I’m not so sure. Indeed I think the lesson has well and truly been learnt with many voters now not just being “undecided” but expressing pro-Biden sympathies whilst intending otherwise.

    So many of the forums that were once lively places of reasoned debate have been closed down by a foreboding curtain of zealotry and intolerance that a significant swathe of conscientious objectors knows how to play by these new rules whilst preserving their conscience for when it really matters.

  15. Stewie GriffinMEMBER

    Ugh – Nouriel Roubini kvetching about Trump while trembling at imaginary apocalyptic scenarios is so stereotypical. His article should have been titled “Nouriel cries out in pain as he strikes Trump”.

    This is such blatant click bait that I’m not even going to bother commenting further, other than to sit back with popcorn and read the rantings of triggered TDS sufferers and their collective psychosis, as they extrapolate worse case scenarios dreamed up by a tribe of haters. Scenarios that are so far removed even from the baseline of the past 4 years that I suspect they’ve been licking cane toads.

    • A one-trick pony if ever there was.

      “The man who predicted the GFC” — er, no, one of the many thousands who saw it coming a mile off because, as a finance professional, if you failed to do so you were negligent in the extreme.

  16. – By rigging the elctions.
    – The primaries were rigged in favour of Hillary Clinton at the expense of Bernie Sanders. In november 2016 the national elections were in rigged in favour of Trump at the expense of Hillary Clinton. Trump said that the elections were rigged and he was right. The national elections were rigged in favour of Trump.

  17. You left-nutters are insane.

    First of all Trump is going to win, and in any case this is a tactic to get everyone to go out and vote on election day, nothing less and nothing more.

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