Still no price action during China’s Golden Week holiday. Chinese empty apartment sales are still fine:
But the action is on the supply side. Brazil’s September exports launched to nearly 38mt:
As virus numbers fell:
Though one wonders if a virus rebound is not imminent with the reopening.
Still, the trend in Brazilain supply has been one way since January: up. Now it has reached the highest levels ever for September.
Given some 60mt of capacity remains offline, this is a little baffling. Presumably, it is running down stockpiles so it is not entirely bearish.
Vale also notified that its operations at Viga have resumed but that 34 of its dams again failed safety inspections.
It’s a mess and I’m not convinced that Brazil can continue this level of exports.
Add the seasonal headwinds and I’m still bearish short term but still bullish into new year as well on Chinese restocking. I still see the peak in H1, 2021.
