Daily iron ore price update (ready to puke)

Iron ore prices for October 23, 2020:

Spot was down sharply. Paper too. CISA output was still extreme mid-October. Inventories remains stupid

My guess is we’re getting ready for a puke lower here. There’s plenty of supply again with much more to come. Chinese demand looks good on an output basis but beneath that leading indicators are not good once we remove catch-up growth:

$100 looks like a good short term puke target. Then a better bid into new year on restocking. Then $80 moving into Q2 2021 as restocking ends.

David Llewellyn-Smith
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  1. Chinese property sales look like they’re rolling over.

    Surely it will be hard for export-dependent China to sustain their economic activity (without oodles more govt debt) with the USA and Europe going into virus-Winter-carnage?

  2. It more looks like China’s demand for IO is driven by how much it can buy without driving the price up too much, rather than demand driven. It feels like the market is working backwards.