Iron ore prices for October 21, 2020:
Spot up. Paper up. Really just following broader trends of USD weakness. China’s empties are rebounding:
It looks like sales have been pushed around a lot by stimulus-led discounting waves:
But there are still signs of weakness creeping in. Price growth is weak, starts have softened and land sales have rolled:
There is still scope for mortgage easing. Rates are quite high:
But authorities appear very congnisant of the embedded weakness in the yuan (despite its short term pop) so I don’t foresee any new rate cuts.
In short, I am still concerned that China’s empties are not what they once were to economic recoveries.
My outlook remains firm prices through new year then a series of shunts lower next year, starting in March.