Daily iron ore price update (empties come good)

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Iron ore prices for October 21, 2020:

Spot up. Paper up. Really just following broader trends of USD weakness. China’s empties are rebounding:

It looks like sales have been pushed around a lot by stimulus-led discounting waves:

But there are still signs of weakness creeping in. Price growth is weak, starts have softened and land sales have rolled:

There is still scope for mortgage easing. Rates are quite high:

But authorities appear very congnisant of the embedded weakness in the yuan (despite its short term pop) so I don’t foresee any new rate cuts.

In short, I am still concerned that China’s empties are not what they once were to economic recoveries.

My outlook remains firm prices through new year then a series of shunts lower next year, starting in March.

About the author
David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal. He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.