Daily iron ore price update (empties come good)

Iron ore prices for October 21, 2020:

Spot up. Paper up. Really just following broader trends of USD weakness. China’s empties are rebounding:

It looks like sales have been pushed around a lot by stimulus-led discounting waves:

But there are still signs of weakness creeping in. Price growth is weak, starts have softened and land sales have rolled:

There is still scope for mortgage easing. Rates are quite high:

But authorities appear very congnisant of the embedded weakness in the yuan (despite its short term pop) so I don’t foresee any new rate cuts.

In short, I am still concerned that China’s empties are not what they once were to economic recoveries.

My outlook remains firm prices through new year then a series of shunts lower next year, starting in March.

David Llewellyn-Smith