Budget forecasts lowest population growth since WW2

Tucked away deep in Budget Paper 3 were the below forecasts for net overseas migration (NOM), with the Treasury’s Centre for Population now expecting NOM will turn negative for the first time since the Second World War (WW2), recording declines of -71,600 in 2020-21 and -21,600 in 2021-22, before recovering to 95,900 in 2022-23 and 201,100 in 2023-24:

Accordingly, Australia’s population growth will slow dramatically, falling to its lowest level since 1942, before rebounding back to 329,000 by 2023-24:

The chart:

Specifically, Australia’s population is only forecast to grow by 56,000 in 2020-21 and by 98,000 in 2021-22.

NSW’s population is forecast to decline by 2,000 in 2020-21 and will rise by only 7,000 in 2021-22.

Whereas Victoria’s population is forecast to increase by only 13,000 in 2020-21 and 30,000 in 2021-22.

Hilariously, after shedding hypocritical crocodile tears over poor housing affordability in Australia, brought about by 15-years of mass immigration, leading mass immigration spruiker Dr Liz Allen has warned of economic and social armagedon from the immigration collapse:

Dr Liz Allen, a demographer at the Australian National University told SBS Punjabi that this could have far-reaching consequences for the nation’s future.

“Negative net overseas migration, as expected by the government, will see both the median age of the population and structural aging increase. A more accentuated aging population will have major impacts on the financial position of the country and threatens future socio-economic wellbeing,” said Dr Allen.

The federal government also left the planned ceiling for the Migration Program at 160,000 places for 2020-21, with most permanent residency visas to be issued onshore.

Instead of being viewed as a disaster, this lower level of population growth will provide Australia with a unique opportunity to catch-up on infrastructure investment, which fell badly into deficit following 15 years of extreme immigration. It will also encourage the economy to transition away from unsustainable, quanity-based ‘dumb’ growth centred around people servicing to actual productivity and export led growth.

A lower, more sustainable level of population growth is exactly what Australia needs and should be celebrated.

Nothing good comes from perennially crush-loading infrastructure, housing, and the natural environment. Further, the absolute last thing unemployed Australians need is to be competing for scarce jobs against low wage migrants. This will only crush wages even more and decimate Australia’s working class.

Nordic countries are regarded as being among the most advanced, happiest and well-functioning in the world with the highest living standards. They have achieved these results without mass immigration and rapid population growth:

Australia should seek to emulate these nations by focusing on maximising productivity and living standards.

Leith van Onselen
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Comments

  1. adelaide_economistMEMBER

    Oh no, why won’t the legacy citizens understand that immigrants never ever age, and neither do their grandparents they import on special visas once they’ve established themselves here. Thank heavens ace demographer Dr Liz Allen, who referred to ‘demography’ in her PhD and is therefore a national expert, is here to correct us plebs.

    • They shall grow not old, as we that are left grow old;
      Age shall not weary them, nor the years condemn.
      At the going down of the sun and in the morning
      We will import more ofthem.”

  2. “Negative net overseas migration, as expected by the government, will see both the median age of the population and structural aging increase. A more accentuated ageing population will have major impacts on the financial position of the country and threatens future socio-economic wellbeing,” said Dr Allen.”

    And who’s socio-economic wellbeing would that be? The 1% making out like bandits? Pushers of debt, ballooning asset prices and concrete dog boxes, while young people are forced to inherit and carry debt for overinflated housing and see their wages decline trapped in a quality of life death spiral?

    All of Liz’s chestnuts on the ageing crisis have been debunked for years now. They are myths and very tired ones at that:

    https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2018/05/the-myth-of-the-aging-society
    https://keepournhspublic.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/Myth-of-Ageing-fact-sheet.pdf

    How come none of the other top 10 nations in the human social development index (Australia = 6) have mass immigration? How come ones like Sweden (8), Netherlands (10) and Germany (4) still make things but don’t have to grow their population endlessly?

    http://hdr.undp.org/en/content/2019-human-development-index-ranking

    How come Japan’s birth rates have as a trend been in decline since the 1950s and have an ageing population, but people can still afford housing and their economy is still the 3rd largest?

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aging_of_Japan

    If Australia’s fertility rates have been dropping since the 1960s isn’t the population of Australia sending out a giant message about the low affordability and desirability of higher fertility rates and population size? Could it have anything to do with the impossibility of living on a single wage?

    https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.DYN.TFRT.IN?locations=AU

    Just maybe Australian have become progressively less amenable to larger families due to increasing CPI, inflated asset prices and declining opportunity so that the economy needs to catch up with that reality and a sustainable population – not the other way around!

    But Liz sees the solution to this is cramming them in. Ignore the evidence and stay true to a debunked ideology.

    And can it be true that a woman who (apparently) has seven children is lecturing us on population size? Given that disparity what on earth is the psychological driver of Dr Allen’s nutty fixation with mass immigration and ageing? She’s way out on the very extreme of the distribution. Who should we ask next, the Pope?

    Because the only crisis is that fake experts like Liz Allen have been allowed to pump out industrial quantities of nonsense unchallenged, that the ABC and big media companies have been happy to present as ‘facts’. Driven on by the very few who benefit from these policies Dr Allen is a complete drongo to keep repeating myths. Academics publish their findings, they don’t present them to SBS Punjabi and tweet them out.

    Has the ANU decided to go the way of UQ and Murdoch?

    • happy valleyMEMBER

      To have had seven kids, Liz has probably never done it tough and never will – there’s always going to be a place for someone to write useless dribble – dog knows the RBA is full of a whole building of dribble-writing boffins. My two “kids” (36 and 32) have figured out there’s no sound reason to bring kids in to this world and the one that confronts us in the next 20 years.

  3. Won’t happen. This global immigrants wave is done.

    The global zeitgeist has changed and all the king’s spruikers and panel talking heads will not be able to put Humpty Dumpty back together.

  4. SnappedUpSavvyMEMBER

    Can’t think of anything worse then less Indians on the roads and in the hospitals it’s a disaster

    • Can’t think of anything worse then less Indians on the roads footpaths and in the hospitals it’s a disaster

      Fixedya

  5. Interestingly, Europes dire demographics is well known, but many experts expected a lockdown baby boom, maybe boredom – what can we do now???

    Numbers just starting to come in, and the birth rate has utterly collapsed from already depressed levels. So good in theory, but in practice…

    Which goes to show, big incentives needed. Birth rates and economics go hand in hand. Everyone expected declining birth rates in Europe from the 1980’s to recover, and they haven’t, now an entire generation has come and gone. Mathematically, its a bit like financial losses, lose 50% of the population, birth rate has to double, or the twice as long, etc.

    Given we are about to enter a Depression!

    • Yes, I feel sorry for non-vibrant Sweden. When I was a kid, its population was similar to ours. Now look at us – 26 million, the most successful multicultural nation in the world, an industrial powerhouse with a pristine environment.

      • All they had to do was to look at Lebanon and see how that worked out. They elected a government of lying idiots and reap the the reward. Melbourne is the new Malmo

        • SPS has clearly never been to Sweden. My mate, born in the poorer part of Stockholm, has now been transformed, so much in fact that the police won’t cross the bridge from the main part of the city, no matter what reported crime. In this particular suburb, there is no equivalent that exists in Australia.

          Point being, when you die, you are gone, history, values, culture…

          • I don’t think it is like this in Melbourne yet. My son has been warned by his Muslim mate That there are parts of northern suburbs that he should stay away from, where the risks are beating from a group if he he is there alone

  6. reusachtigeMEMBER

    I think that Dr Allen bloke is afraid of falling house prices and understands that boosting imported human capital also helps boost our house prices which is what everyone wants!

    • This is just the same bait and switch exercise used by Howard. ‘window dressing exercise’ to try and fix the politics of mass immigration. Look tough as you fling the gates wide and let everyone in.

      The winners out of this will be dodgy english colleges who will issue a certificate for the right price…

      • Jumping jack flash

        Wait for “advanced manufacturing” to kick in.

        They’ve already hinted that Australians cant create new jobs as well. The immigrants will save us.

        This is the calm before the storm.
        We need high immigration to feed the debt economy with new people who are eligible for taking out the ever-higher amounts of essential debt. There’s no ifs, buts, or maybes about it.

        Its simple mathematics and logic

        • That’s right. The banks need fresh meat to issue mortgages to otherwise money expansion in the economy collapses.

  7. The virus presented the treacherous government a chance to reverse the ruinous ‘brown man’ mass immigration intake.
    Alas, same as it ever was.

    We really need a Great Orator.