Virus all but disappears from VIC

Eat it, virus psychos:

A magnificent effort my fellow Victorians. Manchurian Dan can open up the moment the reformed contact tracing system is in place. Is it?

As for the virus psychos, and everyone else who has sneered and jeered across Australia as Victorians endured this lockdown for your benefit, you can all get fucked.

David Llewellyn-Smith

Comments

  1. Lol Lol Lol Echo your sentiments exactly DLS. Good you got to report this today 🙂

    GOOD ON US. And all is forgiven the prodigal Dan (for the moment)

  2. TheLambKingMEMBER

    Monday number are always outliers. But we should be in single figures or teens this week. There is a 2-3 week lag between the restrictions and the numbers, so we should have almost 0 numbers by the 18th (when I can play tennis again!)

  3. Falling new infection numbers is good news but the critical issue is whether the Victorian government has learnt anything from this disaster

    1. Is Victoria now capable of running a quarantine service so they can take some of the pressure off Sydney? Considering Melbourne reckons it is the best city in the universe it would be nice if they shared some of the quarantine load so more Australians can get back home.

    2. Is Victoria now capable of tracing and stamping out infections when they do occur or will they again allow them to spread undetected throughout communities until there is another massive cluster?

    3. Can Victoria operate like the other Australian states – i.e. avoid draconian lock downs

    If not then Victoria will soon find itself locked down and isolated from the rest of Australia once more.

    Watching the Andrew’s government duck and hide and point fingers and dodge responsibility is hardly confidence building.

      • It’s just the Flu bro crew are ignoring inconvenient facts like covid is now the third largest cause of death in America.
        Can only wonder what US et al will look like when a mutation comes through and wipes out the people who were weakened by the first wave, like the Spanish flu second wave. Nobody expects the second wave.

        • COVID deaths are being allocated extremely generously in the USA. Only about 5% of deaths there are *just* COVID – most with a slew of serious health problems and old age.

          Comparisons to the Spanish Flu are totally bollocks. COVID is more like the influenza pandemics no one has ever heard of – 1957, 1967, 1993, 2009.

          The simplest explanation of the massive initial deaths in March 2020 was the over-ruse of ventilators combined with migrant aged care workers fleeing. By contrast look at countries where they care for their own people – eg. Poland – no death wave! In Italy and Sweden the Polish, Bulgaria, Romanian workers fled the country immediately, trying to get home before borders were shut, leaving aged care residents dehydrated and malnourished, easy victims to COVID.

          If you code 5% of naturally occurring deaths as COVID, its easy to freak people out. Do you know that 160,000 people die each year from any cause in Australia? Or 2.2 million in the USA? If we ran the same kind of testing on influenza with 100x magnification PCR, we would find a similar death toll each year.

          COVID is a scam designed to destroy the economy and prevent Donald Trump’s re-election. Ask yourself – without COVID, and the economy still booming, what chance would Democrats have? Yes the virus exists, but its risks were dramatically overstated.

          Look at what is happening – Five Eyes countries shut down, to encourage the USA to shutdown, which would destroy the economy. China is in on it, aligned with the Deep State and Democrats, since they want Trump out and corrupt Biden in.

          • RobotSenseiMEMBER

            Ask yourself – without COVID, and the economy still booming, what chance would Democrats have? Yes the virus exists, but its risks were dramatically overstated.

            But it did happen. And the response was poor. And Trump looks as equicompetent as Boris Johnson. And this is the risk of putting blustering fools in charge of important things – at best they can’t manage it, and at worst they show no interest.

          • Yes. A virus with very strange characteristics (targets western diseases western demographics with high % older than 80), emerging at a very inopportune time. Coincidence? Maybe. But coincidences are dangerous things to believe in.
            This may be China’s response to Trumps trade war.

          • “China is in on it, aligned with the Deep State and Democrats, since they want Trump out and corrupt Biden in.”

            so much dumbfvckery in a single post. well done.

  4. I guess it is probably just incompetence and a coincidence, but I note the state most beholden to China is the state most afflicted by its virus.

  5. Amputating a leg fixes a sore toe as well. Of course the lockdown worked, doesn’t mean it was the best solution. Lets wait for the extra cancer deaths, the bankruptcy’s and every other (intended and unintended) consequence from this obscene overreaction. And we had better get a vaccine, the house is well and truly riding on it.

    • RobotSenseiMEMBER

      The extra cancer deaths might not eventuate. The question on that is whether a six-month blow out in screening leads to cancers that go from treatable to untreatable. A stage I goes to a stage II – still treatable. A stage IV was probably a stage IV six months ago. The question is how many II’s become III’s or IV’s. Given the natural history of most common cancers (breast/colorectal/lung), the overall number might not be that many.

      • RobotSenseiMEMBER

        So the alternative in March then was just to let things continue, face a potential assault of patients presenting to emergency departments, but carry on scoping and bronching and scanning and whatnot and make public hospitals ground zero for a COVID bomb. Clearly that wasn’t going to happen so early in a pandemic when we were facing shortages of the PPE and bedspace required to continue running unimpeded.
        Based on the information we had in March, the correct call was made. Our health system is not set up to concurrently managd a pandemic and continue functioning unchanged (given that, for instance, gastroscopy/colonoscopy lists are blowing out in numerous health districts, even the smallest pressure on theaters/budgets would crush any chance they had of running on time.)
        Healthcare works under the same budgetary constraints as any other service. I don’t see a way out of their predicament in March. Happy to accept commentary on the matter. Calling the initial post “adolescent” is either naive or foolish. It’s was a no-win game in March. There’s no magical logic river that takes you to “we could have continued screening programs in March without endangering anyone” lake.

        (And to your anecdotes, clearly these cancers are still treatable as they have been offered resections. Which is entirely my point – they might be found later, but still treatable, albeit a stage I might now be a stage II, but the prognosis for both in most malignancies is still excellent.)

    • So people dying WITH COVID are not dying OF COVID , but people dying from CANCER as a potential result of COVID measures are dying from COVID?

      What I find interesting is how many people know of lots of who committed suicide but before COVID and the social isolation measures didnt care much about the suicide rates before COVID…Actual data

      • spot on.

        lots of blue lives matter cryptofascists suddenly got temporarily concerned with police ‘brutality’ as well. amazing coincidence!

  6. Just finished the online component of induction to get our open air pool back operating properly (we opened today). About to head off for site induction. Lap swimming only outside is making a comeback!!! We seem to be doing everything safely (on paper at least anyway, but last time when we re-opened indoors we walked our talk, so to speak).

  7. Don’t get too cocky. You’ll be back in lockdown #3 before long. Just like NZ will. The disease just keeps pouring in through the borders and there is no way to stop it from eventually getting out. Just like NZ has had 5-6 positive cases from people who did their 14 days quarantine, tested negative twice, and yet still got infected somehow and spread it all over NZ while on holiday after getting out of quarantine.

    • Yep, 14 days was always an arbitrary, non science-based number. Should be more like a month. As Jacinda said today, the key issue will be whether recurring hot spots will be locked down and isolated. Contact tracing and testing will remain key for the foreseeable future.

  8. NSW have 0 cases today.

    Only a few more months until the vaccine is ready, then it’ll be forgotten as another footnote in history in Australia. Can’t say the same about US though where half of the people refuses to be vaccinated.

      • Since it’s mostly been eradicated in Australia, we don’t need to mandate it for everyone. Once there is a safe vaccine, we can impose all arrivals and returned travellers to either :

        1) Show evidence of COVID-19 vaccination, or
        2) Mandatory hotel quarantine for 14 days at the traveller’s expense.

        • Goldstandard1MEMBER

          “When there is a safe vaccine”. Let me know when your family gets jabbed mate then I’ll wait 12 months then maybe get it. Should have mass vaccination by 2024 minimum.

    • The average vaccine takes 10-15 years to develop.
      Most vaccine trials fail.
      There has never been a vaccine developed for a corona virus.
      Time to get real. There is no silver bullet for this thing. We’re just going to have to learn to live with it.

  9. The case and death data shared on MB shows the NA and EU case numbers spiking in a “2nd” wave with much lower death rates – There is a divergence from 1st wave. So, either many of the vulnerable folk have unfortunately been taken by the disease or their is something broader regarding susceptibility, treatment, immunity etc.

    It could be argued that Australia has not had any wave based on infection rates peaking at around 770 cases per day. France had 16,500 in one day as a comparison, call it 5,500 on a per capita basis.

    Great that we are heading towards elimination but not convinced we have the capacity to keep it that way forever. Its in the global population so unless we stay shut forever breakouts will be inevitable (NZ example). Nationally our contact tracing processes are average and when it hits again we can only hope we have better systems in place to protect the vulnerable.

    Feels like more dumb luck to me. Caucasian populace, one of the most solar radiated places on earth (vit d) and largish spaces between people.

  10. Incredibly juvenile and offensive but sadly a reflection of the world we now live in where if you don’t conform to the sanctioned narrative you are a psycho or conspiracy theorist.
    It is also sad how so many people have been sucked into sitting at home parsing the manipulated numbers of deaths/infections, different responses and all the other trivia whilst remaining blissfully oblivious to what is really happening in the world. No point in rehashing the arguments as no minds will be changed but enjoy living on this prison island because as soon as anyone comes in the little old virus will be back and it all will have been for nought.

    • Whatevs. Anyone that is unconvinced at this stage will remain so. I’m all for contact tracing when you have it, when you don’t it is mass death or shut down. No economy either way.

      But I thank you for subscribing. There is a strange convergance of virus skeptics and scabs on this site.

      • I think you will find that many subscribed for the economic commentary and are now trapped in an abusive, jeering, profanity rich world of virus fear mongering and like myself, are simply waiting for the subscription to expire.

  11. RobotSenseiMEMBER

    That is, the great danger of those supporting Dan Andrews on this issue, is that they end up putting us in a place where resistance to ‘science’, and a preference for the human right to make an individual choice regarding their health and body is delegitimised. And that is far more dangerous than a virus.
    *sigh*
    No it’s not more dangerous.
    If we’re going to go down a full-throttle “personal autonomy trumps all” vivid dream, then I should be allowed to drive full-throttle down the highway 200km/hr high on meth, because that’s my personal choice. Yes some other people might get hurt but they also might not, and the only thing you have to fear from my wayward driving is fear itself.
    Autonomy is not the be-all and end-all in society. Yes we need to respect it, and fortunately we live in a country where it does hold precedence, but trying to reduce this to “science bad, autonomy good” leads to logic like my methhead driving above. If this virus had the same mortality as Ebola, I don’t think you’d be adopting such a philosophical position.

  12. If the Mexicans south of the border are happy living on their knees good luck to them maybe they should go the next step and succeed from Oz and join the CCP fuck off you gutless c—ts.

  13. Lol nice..

    As for the virus psychos, and everyone else who has sneered and jeered across Australia as Victorians endured this lockdown for your benefit, you can all get fucked.

  14. I see you’re keeping it classy, DLS.

    Engineer/Data scientist/Measurement specialist here. Would publicly debate you on this, any day. As long as you keep it civil and drop the wankerisms.

    “Mass death” – what the actual f…. are you talking about? Death, yes, but mass death? Compared to what? How about comparing it to the 85 million people the UN estimates are on the verge of starvation thanks to the lockdowns?

    The countries that have wandered/stumbled (or planned, in the case of Sweden) into herd immunity will be long returned to some semblance of normalcy while Australia (and VIC and NZ particularly) lock-unlock-lock-unlock ad infinitum and take their entire society down with them.

      • To be clear, I never asserted that Sweden had reached herd immunity. My statement was a reference to the future when I expect they will. And I expect they will achieve it much faster than the countries that enacted suppression strategies before the virus got a head of steam in their respective countries.

        That said, I’d be prepared to bet Sweden has already reached herd inmmunity, but I’d prefer to let a couple more weeks pass, if you’d allow me, before slapping the money on the table – because this virus is seasonal and the autumn viral season hasn’t got up to speed yet in Europe.

        Now, as to sources. There’s a source for any POV on the internet. I’m making my own claim based on my specialties in data science, measurement, modelling and engineering. But this particular point is not that difficult to grasp or demonstrate. Go to your preferred data source for death rates (not total death counts). Here’s one:
        https://covid19.healthdata.org/sweden?view=daily-deaths&tab=trend

        Next, compare Sweden’s death rates in this early stage of the northern autumn virus season against other countries that (unlike Sweden) successfully enacted swift suppression strategies (lockdown etc) before the viral outbreak reached “escape velocity” during the first wave (in other words, exclude places like the UK, Northern Italy etc). When you do this comparison, you see that the countries that suppressed the first-wave spread to a significant degree are experiencing an increase in the rate of COVID deaths in the “second wave” whereas Sweden is not. That’s your main clue.

        Finally, some important caveats.
        1. Only compare Northern hemisphere regions with Sweden, preferably with similar seasonal weather patterns. Because, as I said, this virus is seasonal. Sub-tropical and tropical climates, for example, have very different seasonal viral patterns.
        2. You also need to be careful about counting methodologies. The USA’s methods, for example, are poor compared to much of Europe (USA is much more “generous” in attributing deaths to COVID). Also, on the subject of the USA, if you insist on comparing the USA with Sweden, you should limit it to the northern regions, because the southern US states have different seasonal viral patterns due to the weather there.
        3. Most people are still stuck on the likely false suggestion that herd immunity requires 60%+ SARS-COV-2 infection levels. This was early estimates based on poor assumptions. Newer studies are rolling in showing that there is significant T-Cell derived cross-immunity from exposure to similar coronaviruses. Also, it’s very clear the innate immune system is protective of younger aged cohorts. This is a distinct protection mechanism – separate to antibody and T-Cell immunity and doesn’t require prior exposure. People making the earlier claims of 60%+ infection levels to achieve herd immunity failed to factor this in to their assessments. Drawing this all together, herd immunity is very likely to be reached at much lower levels (like around 20%), and there are a number of papers already suggesting this.

        That covers it, off the top of my head.

        • Thanks Johnboy. Thanks for your time in the detailed and considered response and apologies for missing it, but as you say it went into purgatory for a while.

          You did state countries that HAVE wandered/stumbled/planned into herd immunity. What you explained though is that this is your EXPECTATION that they WILL. Big difference.

          You make some good points but it is way to early to conclude herd immunity, even with your caveats. . This is old but probably indicative of that difficulty: “Swedish health authorities initially predicted that 40 per cent of the Stockholm population would have contracted the disease and acquired antibodies by May this year.
          But the study, published by the Journal of the Royal Society of Medicine, found by that time only about 15 per cent of the population had been infected.”https://www.news.com.au/world/coronavirus/global/fears-swedens-controversial-covid19-tactic-has-backfired/news-story/790c7524ac53bd8fdabaf334ae400b3d

          Agree on the importance of Nordic or similar comparisons https://www.independentsage.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/Sweden_case-study-v2.pdf

          We wait and see.

          • Thanks – both for being polite and offering good counterpoints.

            I tried to make it clear that I was at the bet-making stage at this point, which I expected would imply that we do, as you say, need more time in order for more second wave/northern autumn data to roll in. Another 4-6 weeks of data should be sufficient to a 95%ish confidence level. Right now I’d estimate my confidence is in the 70% range. Extracting signal from noise is part of my professional practice for 25 years or so – if I’m not able to extract the signal earlier than most by now then it’s time for me to take up fishing.

        • I answered the question in detail. It’s been held up by the moderators for god knows what reason. But you didn’t think of that, did you, Mr Witty? You’re a real knee-slapper. Top notch content there, Comrade!

          • Haywood JablomyMEMBER

            Guess the spambot must’ve moderated the virologist/epidemiologist from your self-congratulatory list of semi-relevant qualifications.

  15. “Yep… Anyone who thinks that China hasn’t taken full advantage of this virus and ramped up the scare factor is a fool. Remember all those images from Wuhan of bodies lined up outside front doors & people randomly collapsing in the street.”
    “Strange how that hasn’t happened anywhere else…”

    Strange isn’t it.
    China has only 4 thousand deaths. But a few were caught on camera collapsing and dying in the street. And these images got out – despite a very tightly controlled social media.

    But Europe and USA and Brazil and India with far more deaths and far fewer media have no such images.

  16. Well let’s just nationalise Chinese assets and offset them against the costs of their virus.
    Health costs. Economic costs. Punitive damages.
    Add it all up and nationalise their assets

    • It hints at the cognitive dissonance and mental stress going on internally. See his other comments (“Anyone that is unconvinced at this stage will remain so”). That’s more a revelation about DLS’ own state of cognitive openness than about other people (IMHO).

        • I replied to your earlier question already but for some reason it’s “waiting for moderation”.

          Maybe because it’s quite long? I dunno. Anyway, once the mods approve it you should be notified.

  17. FFS! enough of covid. The Northern Hemisphere traditional flu season is Dec/Jan/Feb. Get them airliners in the sky and give em all Aussie sunshine for Chrissy/New Year at least. Tourists, immigrants, expats, anyone, dead, dying, or alive, send them all. Aussie Tourism and economy need you now.
    Victoria has taken a bullet for all of Australia so come on down and kiss a Victorians arse on arrival, its the new custom!