Links 15 September 2020

Global Macro / Markets / Investing:





Leith van Onselen
Latest posts by Leith van Onselen (see all)



    Here’s why more Aucklanders should move to Christchurch … Steven Moe, Partner, Parry Field, Lawyers … The Spinoff
    … h/t PH …

    They’re two cities with identical amenities, identical schools and equally beautiful hinterlands. So why don’t more people choose the one where houses are half the price? … read more via hyperlink above …

    … With the Infrastructure Funding & Financing Act, the Urban Development Act and the Urban Development National Policy Statement now in place, expect increasingly more affordable new housing going forward. Urban Development Minister Phil Twyford explains …

    … Huge urban development reforms in progress …


    … What is driving the sudden reckless and risky burst of housing inflation ? …

    New Zealand experiences negative population growth from migration for the first time in seven years … Greg Ninness … Interest Co NZ

    Population growth from migration has almost come to a standstill since April and turned negative for the first time in seven years in July.

    The latest Statistics NZ figures show that the monthly net migration gain (long term arrivals minus long term departures) surged in the first three months of this year, hitting a record 12,976 in the month of February.

    It then dropped sharply to 9671 when the Level 4 lockdown restrictions were applied in March, and almost came to a complete standstill in April when the net migration gain dropped to just 88.

    It picked up slightly to a net gain of 347 in May, stayed at about that level at 341 in June, then dipped to a net loss of -26 in July.

    That was the first time that the country has had a net population loss from migration since May 2013.

    The latest figures have also dashed suggestions that the number of New Zealanders returning home during the COVID pandemic would prop up demand for housing. … read more via hyperlink above …

    • Whom knew they were everywhere mig …

      Lets not forget the decades libertarians degraded the states abilities from education to delivering a public good like health care in the name of EMH and profits. Albeit I understand the puritan aspect and how the unpure application in reality does not square with the scripture – is an epic strawman clause.

      The main points of neo-liberalism include:

      THE RULE OF THE MARKET. Liberating “free” enterprise or private enterprise from any bonds imposed by the government (the state) no matter how much social damage this causes. Greater openness to international trade and investment, as in NAFTA. Reduce wages by de-unionizing workers and eliminating workers’ rights that had been won over many years of struggle. No more price controls. All in all, total freedom of movement for capital, goods and services. To convince us this is good for us, they say “an unregulated market is the best way to increase economic growth, which will ultimately benefit everyone.” It’s like Reagan’s “supply-side” and “trickle-down” economics — but somehow the wealth didn’t trickle down very much.

      CUTTING PUBLIC EXPENDITURE FOR SOCIAL SERVICES like education and health care. REDUCING THE SAFETY-NET FOR THE POOR, and even maintenance of roads, bridges, water supply — again in the name of reducing government’s role. Of course, they don’t oppose government subsidies and tax benefits for business.

      DEREGULATION. Reduce government regulation of everything that could diminsh profits, including protecting the environment and safety on the job.

      PRIVATIZATION. Sell state-owned enterprises, goods and services to private investors. This includes banks, key industries, railroads, toll highways, electricity, schools, hospitals and even fresh water. Although usually done in the name of greater efficiency, which is often needed, privatization has mainly had the effect of concentrating wealth even more in a few hands and making the public pay even more for its needs.

      ELIMINATING THE CONCEPT OF “THE PUBLIC GOOD” or “COMMUNITY” and replacing it with “individual responsibility.” Pressuring the poorest people in a society to find solutions to their lack of health care, education and social security all by themselves — then blaming them, if they fail, as “lazy.”

      Skin in the game, user pays, tax is theft, leaners vs lifters, meritocracy, savvy investors rational agent buddy, revolving door blurring the line between public and private spheres, economics as a post marketing study with funding dynamics and booby prizes …. you get the picture ….

          • You don’t have one because you’re an statist. Libertarians aren’t running any government, failures like you are…

          • Orthodox economics and all those freedom and liberty medals with a dominate market share of Nobles completely refutes your opinion mig.

            Wonky axioms are still rubbish with bad maths and physics slapped on to them to give it that “Science” burnish and less we forget the libertarians were ringing in the utopia pre GFC.

      • Like in France where they have government funded secular education and none of the problems like they have in Melbourne?

    • Jeepers it must take a lot of effort to maintain this level of rage day in day out.

      Life is short eh!

  3. So the bloke who made the Aboriginal Flag was at least a half caste, the bloke who made Dot Painting was a full on Euro…. what has been the cultural contribution of full-blooded Australian Aborigines, exactly? Apart from hunting multiple megafauna to extinction and burning huge tracts of the continent down from forest to scrubland.

    Not saying we’re much better ecologically.

    • I don’t agree with anything you wrote, ‘we’ (not ‘them’) are orders of magnitudes worse on any criteria you can muster.

      • That account (under multiple names) is what one might refer to as “Libertarianism Unplugged”.

        I’m never entirely sure whether it’s parody like Reusa, or genuine – it’s difficult to tell with those kinds of people.

    • Why does it matter? Every species or subspecies gets to survive on its own merits.

      Let’s say that instead of the English some other European power had come. Or Chinese or Indians.

      Would it have turned out differently? I used to think so but I’m pretty sure the answer is no.

      Either Aboriginal people will get thier act together or they will go extinct in culture if not blood.

      Not much anyone can do about it I don’t reckon.

    • Mining BoganMEMBER

      This one knows.

      “One senior banker explained that people were obviously not talking to the banks in the hope that the problem might simply go away. But, he added, this situation could not continue indefinitely.

      “The notes will get a little bit sharper to get a response,” he explained.

      He said that was why the banks were urging customers to talk to them before their six-month home loan deferral periods ran out.

      “One month after, three months after, the letters will get more severe,” he predicted.

      But, he shrugged, “then, of course, we’ll get a bullying complaint”.”

    • Mike Herman TroutMEMBER

      This is going to get ugly I believe divya. The next leg of this saga due to unfold post September. As an aside, I find it interesting the afr uses language like “ghosted”. Next it will be “gaslighting”. Debt? what debt?

    • Certainly going to be interesting going forward. TBH I couldn’t see how the 8-16% made sense given the economic trauma that has occurred though we were told that was the case. I can’t help but have my mind go back to Martin North’s vids. He is always saying he is surprised by the number of people who are unaware of their cash flow, think they’re ok then have an ‘oh [email protected]’ moment in his surveys when they realise they have problems, and that multi-cultural establishments are in the top 5 of most financially stressed under every metric he measures (OO, renter and investor plus nationally and states). I’m sure there are plenty of ‘Aussies’ (people who know the system) who are ghosting the banks, but I wonder how many are more recent arrivals, possibly with language issues, who are also not talking to the banks and just hoping it will all go away? Edwin Almeida mentioned the issues in Sydney last night on his Monday Property Rant with Martin about illegal boarding houses, and I have absolutely no sympathy for the trouble some Chinese (Edwin only mentioned Asian) investors have gotten themselves into with illegal house modifications, who now need to sell. It was a nice little schadenfreudgasm to start the week off on.

    • But only 6 media companies and only one wall street. I wonder how the wall street banking candidate will go.

    • Mining BoganMEMBER

      You know, I’ve always wondered why sporting representatives are always so smug when they explain everything away as sport is now a business. As far as I can see it just makes them as corrupt as other business and political types.

      Return to grass level and there’s a much happier vibe going on without the not so subtle indoctrination.

        • Mining BoganMEMBER

          Want to know the moment I knew professional rugby league was dead? I’ll tell you anyway. Had a mate and his missus down from Qld to go to the footy and do some hiking.. Told them to wear comfortable shoes because we will walk the yarra’n’sh!t for a couple of hours before heading to the stadium for a million beers. So we’re all in our hiking shoes. Sitting up in the stands with our feet up heard some wannabe laughing about bogans wearing running shoes with jeans. At the footy. Mate turned around and told them they wouldn’t make it to half time at a suburban ground.

          If professional sport was about sport instead of the ‘product’ it would be so much better.

  4. France still tracking along ~10,000 new covid cases a day

    But deaths are still in the 10-30/day range

    Now over a month and a half since the second wave started