VIC records 394 new COVID-19 infections vs NSW’s 10

Victoria recorded another 394 COVID-19 infections overnight and a record 17 more deaths:

However, Victoria’s infection rate appears to have passed its peak:

NSW recorded only 10 new cases and, unlike Victoria, has done a good job stopping the spread:

Victoria now has 7,854 active COVID-19 cases, 96.2% of the nation’s total. By contrast, NSW has 275 active COVID-19 cases, 3.4% of the nation’s total:

Since the pandemic began, Victoria has recorded 14,659 COVID-19 infections, nearly quadruple NSW’s 3,861:

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Victoria’s rate of infection is now 221 cases per 100,000 residents, almost five times NSW’s 48 cases per 100,000 residents:

Leith van Onselen

Comments

    • Then what? Until most, if not all of the world is inoculated with a durable vaccine we cannot have anything other than a small stream of returning AU citizens though our international border. No international tourism, inbound and outbound, no education export. Without the population ponzi, the banking system will be in serious trouble.

      The execution of domestic elimination is relatively easy compared to the perpetual requirement for an inbound quarantine regime for both the passengers and crews. Crew are a significant source of problems, and will be required to be kept isolated for the entire duration of their stay in AU, under lock and key by police or military. How about local based crew? Will they will in effect be in permanent isolation, in perpetuity barred from leaving an airport hotel between trips?

      It takes just one slip to get going in the community. As we have seen from Victoria it can bubble away for enough time to get a significant foothold. Even if we eliminate the virus completely, we will never be sure until the ~70% to 80% of the AU population is vaccinated. Until that point we will need to apply social distancing and other restrictions, get a COVID test for a sniffle while we have any overseas travel.

      As a counterpoint to the above argument, there is another possibility as explored by Medcram: Coronavirus Pandemic Update 98: At Home COVID-19 Testing – A Possible Breakthrough, its not a vaccine that we should be working towards, but rather a cheap home testing ($1 or $2 per test) that already exist. However, this relies on people to do the right thing by a) Testing themselves, and b) if they are positive isolating, This sort of test is not suitable for inbound passengers and crew as it only has an accuracy of ~50%. RT-PCR is going to be the gold standard.
      I highly recommend the video to consider what possibilities such a strategy could offer.

      Someone described COVID as being like radioactivity – it can be all around you just can’t tell without an instrument to detect it. Our best instruments have a significant time lag and that is a huge problem.

      • The term elimination for what is going on in NZ/SA/WA etc is incorrect anyway and it implies some finality. A more accurate description would be a ‘suspension of reality’ strategy.
        They will all have to face the music of covid eventually, just it is a gamble of having a vaccine and a highly effective one at that while being plunged into economic winter of isolation waiting.
        But wait forever they cannot and once it is time for a calculated risk; there goes the elimination!

        • Yes. Improved terminology. It is not elimination, it is suppression. Suppression is pretty good. Here in WA life pretty much back to normal and how good is that: bars, restaurants, footy, family. But well aware it could all be stolen by a reckless Victorian 😉

          Original plans to smooth the curve, to ease hospital burdens completely out the window. Now serious restrictions on personal freedoms, allegedly for the greater community good. Right or wrong?

      • The other part is effective treatments. A treatment regimen which cut mortality by 90% would dramatically change the way people interpreted the danger of this disease, similar to the advent of antiretrovirals on perceptions of the danger of HIV.

    • RobotSenseiMEMBER

      Our problem last time was that we started planning and celebrating before we got to the finish line. Take a look at one of those YouTube clips “don’t celebrate too early” – that’s us.

  1. ChristopherMEMBER

    One positive as well from this we can clearly see what is working in NSW and emulate that in Victoria – I hope the health departments are talking.

      • Yep. Once NSW have zero cases sustained for weeks you can say it has worked. Even then, there’s a big lick factor involved. It only has to get to the wrong person once and it’s all over.

          • Florida’s death rate now ranks 19th compared with other states — that is 31 deaths per 100,000 people

            New York City has the highest death rate with 280 deaths per 100,000.

            Cold in New York.

          • Jacob … cold in New York in August !!!! … Weather.com forecast for the next week 28 to 33 Celsius … given its peak summer that’s not surprising. Miami the next week 31 to 32 Celsius …. and humid. Try another covid theory …

        • Sunlord BCNMEMBER

          Jacob
          I think it’ll naturally die down into the warmer months
          Dec Jan Feb
          Think Melb will be back on in summer, maybe Nov

        • Dan’s 8pm curfew less of a problem since its so cold you want to be inside at 6.30 anyway ….

        • Age argument more around the concetration of COVID cases in suburbs featuring greater socio-economic disadvantage related to above average casual and insecure employment without solid access to sick leave.
          The direct link was security of employment and access to sick leave.
          To link to migrants requires the indirect notion that such insecure employment more prominently features migrants than other forms of employment. That might be so but not the main feature of the article.

      • happy valleyMEMBER

        Maybe, Gladys and co learnt something from the Ruby Princess debacle (and whomever is to blame for that, there is a LNP (Fed or state) government involved (assuming any government ever takes any responsibility for any sh.t that happens – thanks Abbottolypse for that one useful life perspective from you), so the “holier than thou” everything is Labor’s fault brigade can shut up for 5 seconds)?

        Anyway, as for NSW which is where I live, the jury is still out for me and I suspect Gladys and co are probably spending some time holding their breath?

    • Wot, like having warmer weather, lower population density and not letting it escape from quarantine?

    • Sunlord BCNMEMBER

      I know it’s unpopular to say but I think there is a lot we aren’t told, that will come out next 6 months

  2. Interesting time for Daniel Andrews, given the peak has occurred way too early to be due the stage 4 restrictions (some of which he mentioned don’t start until midnight tonight, though I don’t know which ones).
    I’m sure he wants the numbers to fall fast, but if the seven day average is substantially lower before next Sunday (or even the Sunday after, given by definition a 7 day average looks back a week), it will be looking like stage 4 wasn’t necessary.

    • Stage 4 will accelerate the numerical decline; else it would all have likely dragged on longer, and elimination might never be achieved.

      Good signs so far – getting to a fortress economy isn’t a bad option, considering the options at hand.

      • Agreed, this moderation from the peak seems to be mask related, but we still need to Stage 4 restrictions to dive it down quickly. Now that we are here, we don’t want to do this again so Andrews knows for political survival to push for elimination, fix quarantine and contact tracing and no more stuff ups..

    • This is probably the affect of masks. Stage 4 reintroduced school and daycare shutdowns which worked the first time and are absolutely needed. Only an idiot would think you can control this with germ breeding centres open!

  3. GunnamattaMEMBER

    Cracking read from Steve Stephen Bartholomeusz this morning which goes to the nub of some of the side arguments everyone wants to get into

    Health versus economy trade-off isn’t a solvable equation
    https://www.theage.com.au/business/the-economy/health-versus-economy-trade-off-isn-t-a-solvable-equation-20200808-p55jvq.html

    In particular note…

    While some view the dilemma confronting governments around the world as one of dollars versus morality, there isn’t any clear evidence to conclude that viewing it through either lens would produce either better economic or better health outcomes.

    Donald Trump and others may have argued the cure shouldn’t be worse than the disease but the renewed outbreak in Victoria, whether it’s a “second wave” or an acceleration of the first, underscores the reality that, until there is an effective and widely-distributed vaccine, there is no cure for either the virus or the economy.

    And for mine that is why we are either aiming for eradication (and making decisions on whether that is actually possible or not). The economy – as we knew it only 8 months ago and have known it for a generation – is Dead, is Kaput, is floating face down in the pool with the crows of fate landing on the bloated carcass for a free feed. It will not be back anytime soon in any form, and will not be back as it hitherto was ever.

    The game from here is to build a new economy. The only way to build the new economy is to nail the virus. Either nail with a vaccine (which may or may not be possible/practical) or nail it with a societal management approach built into everything we do.

    In the absence of a vaccine, is the Victorian experience likely to be the norm, with economies veering continuously between cautious reopenings and then hard lockdowns and is there an alternative to Victoria’s harsh response to the surge in its infections?

    The obvious reference point is the much-discussed Swedish strategy. The Swedes didn’t impose a lockdown, instead advocating voluntary social distancing, bans on large gatherings and table-only service in bars and restaurants.

    There have been about 6000 deaths attributable to the coronavirus in Sweden and its economy contracted by 8.6 per cent in the June quarter.

    The economic impacts weren’t as severe as those experienced elsewhere in Europe – Germany’s economy, for instance, shrank 10.1 per cent – but they are very similar to those of its Nordic neighbours and the death rate is about four times that of Germany’s, about 10 times Denmark’s and nearly 25 times Norway’s, countries where the restrictions on activity have been far more stringent.

    That would suggest there isn’t that much difference in the economic costs of doing little to contain the virus or adopting strong measures but there is, however, a very large disparity in the health outcomes.

    This is the reason reason I think the ‘let it rip, and carry on as we always did’ crowd is living in utter lala land.

    Sadly I think our Federal Government – ScoMo and Josh Depressionberg foremost amongst them, is holding out this weird mirage of ‘we arent that far from ‘normal’ ‘ if only those idiotic Victorians had their act together. That the Victorians have cocked up I dont think anyone can disagree, but at the same time I do find myself wondering if Andrews resigning would be the right thing to do by the Victorian people if all it were to lead to were the introduction of a Liberal government at the state level – with not one skerrick of sense anywhere that a Victorian Liberal government would deal with the day to day exigencies of handling the risk of Covid 19 any better, and tonnes of evidence to suggest that their playbook would be either a lot like the ALPs and some evidence it would be worse [with a penchant for some form of austerity for main street while bailing out vested interests].

    It is this last point – the vested interests – which underlay Australia’s almost unique predicament. Those vested interests have shaped Australian politics and economic policy for a generation. Both sides – ALP and LNP.

    Between them they have, inter alia, created a situation where a nation which now needs to invest in itself and encourage meaningful investment in its economic activities finds itself with:-

    The worlds most expensive real estate (thank you real estate lobby and banks)
    The worlds most expensive university courses (thank you university lobby)
    The worlds most expensive energy (thank you gas producers and the monopoly controlling Australian gas pipelines)
    Amongst the worlds most expensive people (thank you RBA and banks for nailing the AUD to the roof for a generation)
    An economy wedded to low productivity mass immigration (thank you immigration lobby, with a real estate lobby, large inward facing corporates lobby, and banking and university lobbies singing backing vocals, all duly reported on unquestioningly by Australia’s totally sold out media lobby)

    My take from here is that Australia is going to have to cough up some of those vested interests, and that for mine is likely to become fairly obvious in the lead up to the next federal election. And I tend to think as it does that there are likely to be lots of howls of protest, and a fair bit of instability (regarrless of how the virus management is going – which I dont think will be smooth).

    Finally I would note his prophetic final paras…….

    A six-week or even three-month lockdown appears preferable to the long-term damage done if there were a rolling series of reopenings and closures. The health and economic outcomes don’t appear, from the evidence to date, to be conflicting priorities but rather inter-dependent.

    Setting aside the moral questions, sustainable economic growth, even at a pandemic-reduced level, can’t be achieved unless the virus is sustainably contained, whatever the immediate economic cost.

    Someone had best see if they can get this idea into ScoMo and Josh real soon

    • Can’t agree with the Sweden v Denmark/Norway point there. They’re just further along in the process of getting the sufficient level of immunity in their community (I try not to use herd immunity as a specific label) in order for the return to normal.

      What makes Norweigens or Danes magically immune to the extent Swedes aren’t? What might be the logical thing that occurs in Norway/Denmark when they ease the ‘restrictions on activity that are more stringent’ to a level approaching Sweden?

      It is misguided to think lockdowns preventing everyone’s scorecard looking fairly level right now doesn’t mean when it is all said and done their scores will all look somewhat similar.

      • 👍

        Seems so bleeding obvious to me. It’s really the only cogent option we have. Where’s Blind Freddy when you need him ….. ?

        • RobotSenseiMEMBER

          This opportunity will be absolutely squandered by the Coalition, much as they have done since the mid-90’s. Every time they have been confronted by a fork in the road, they retreat into their nostalgic little shells and morphed into negative Nancy’s. They remind me of those kids you were forced to do group assignments with at uni.

    • Scomo and Josh have not really shown much capacity for higher order thinking. I don’t have high hopes. For mine, Josh actually doesn’t seem to have the obvious corrupting ties and influences that most of the feds seem to have. But he also seems to be very dense and not up to the task at hand. He would be very easy for the rest of them to control. I don’t see much hope there.

      • If not a full member, Joshie is a fellow traveller of the IPA and Melbourne Club. He reads his IPA instructions/talking points avidly each Sunday night. He starts early because they can take a while to sink in/get through 🙁

    • It’s “normal” for ScoMo and the rest of the politicians because he’s still getting paid a salary for doing 2/5 of SFA and just got a 10k payrise.

      They have never had any original ideas, so any “new economy” will occur in spite of them.

    • “That the Victorians have cocked up I dont think anyone can disagree”
      I think the degree to which they made mistakes and who was responsible should actually be debated. On Insiders this morning they noted that hotel quarantine was Dan Andrew’s idea in the national cabinet. Were it up to ScoMo, returned travellers would have been asked to isolate at home. In other words Ruby Princess on steroids. Management was then palmed off to the states when it could have been a federal responsibility.
      I really think it is extremely unfair to put all of this at the hands of Dan Andrew’s as journalism seems to be doing.
      eg. this question the other day:
      “Mr Premier, does your government feel personally responsible for the deaths of 100s of people due to failed the hotel quarantine?”
      I have been very impressed with the way Andrews has dealt with the media for 30 something days in a row, and yet their sole focus seems to be putting blame on labor, when the full story isn’t out, when we are dealing with a novel virus where it isn’t totally clear how transmission occurs, a single super spreader could create multiple clusters, when people have refused to be tested, refused to stay in isolation when testing positive etc, and also when all states are different in terms of metro v regional communities, density, public transport, climate, cultural and linguistic diversity etc.

    • btw I agree that Bartholomeusz article is very good. There is no trade-off between health and economic aspect.
      I still think no lock down would be even worse for the economy it would just be delayed and accompanied with panic when it reached a point where people know of friends/family etc. who experienced it, and there would be less coordinated stimulus as it would be private sector led so the State wouldn’t feel the same pressure or responsibility to provide stimulus.

    • Display NameMEMBER

      With advice coming from the RBA and probably treasury to pump the ponzi, it would take a intellectually and personally strong individual to buck those two sources. And that aint Josh and Morrison although clearly an individual of rat cunning is not a deep thinker or likely to rock any boat. Status Quo coming right up and until it breaks.

    • Gunnamatta … spot on there.
      The only way to being back consumer confidence is to eliminate the virus.
      Suppression means people don’t know if they will have a paycheck in a month so they save the lights out. And consumer confidence is required to keep bank system credit growing, in a hole right now and not surprising … who would be taking out a new loan for housing?
      Tight borders means no people … we still have goods coming in and going out.
      And if it means we don’t have the international students … well its a good time to get rid of the Confucius Institutes and fund the universities so that they operate in Australia’s interests and rediscover proper standards.
      I had to laugh at “most expensive people” … because I’m TOTALLY worth it. Hair toss.

  4. I think the evidence is pretty clear – the virus does not affect bogans. How else can you explain its refusal to take a hold in QLD?

    My theory was nearly blown out of the water when a woman down the road, in Ipswich, tested positive — but a second test revealed a false positive.

    It’s never felt better to live in QLD. Secede now and shut teh gates!

  5. At least Dan Andrews mans up every day to front the media and is doing his best to improve the situation. The Prime Minister Scott Morrison didn’t want to get off his banana chair by the pool in Waikiki.

    • RobotSenseiMEMBER

      +1

      I can handle the politicians making mistakes. It’s the sneaking around, doublespeak, and blameshifting that drives my contempt.

      • happy valleyMEMBER

        +1 Scotty from Marketing, like every marketer, knows when to lie low and when to spruik. He’s playing Team Straya elder statesman now (with the taxpayer cheque book open to spend our money and look like a saint – at least he’s in with a chance as he’s a believer in something just like The Monkees were) and letting Victorian Josh Rainbowberg have a whinge about Manchurian Dan making those “We’re back in the black” mug purchases that just as bit more distant from being for the “world of reality” use). And let’s not forget one-track “I’m leaving soon” (and unlike Arnold, he’s not coming back) Matthias, who’s always good to go for “it’s all Labor’s fault” renditions – someone told me he was at it again on “Insiders” this morning, continuing his contribution to policy development since joining parliament)?

  6. It needs to be remembered and also discussed that the government response to this virus has more impacts than just economic and health. There are also political, philosophical, moral, and realism consequences and costs. Even the health metric on its own needs to be broken down into more atomised pros and cons. One of my biggest concerns is that if we continue down this lockdown path that each of us will know more people that have died from suicide, domestic violence, alcohol related injuries and drug overdoses than we will even know that ever caught COVID 19. I know that my mental health has greatly suffered under these conditions. Over an extended period of time under lockdown, it may just be the case that the preventative measures taken cause more death and ill health than the virus would have had we taken a different approach. We eventually find ourselves in a situation where it becomes government policy that is deciding who is at greater risk of death and severe illness rather than the virus.

    • We don’t have a choice on whether to follow the lockdown path or something else. You either learn to deal with it or you’ll have to take some pretty drastic action to stop it. Why does everybody keep trying to explain the pros/cons on the lockdown or what we should do instead – the decision has been made for you for better or worse.

      • BS winning you spew the same garbage every day. You are in QLD sitting on dole bludger where there is an election soon hence no new cases. You sit in lockdown like lsksh for months on end and see how you deal with it. I have relatives in Melb West and have been in lockdown indefinitely. Depression is rife, you have no right to comment since you are not living the nightmare others are, same goes for the other lockdown turds around.

        • Like I said, I genuinely feel sorry for you lot. It’s evident you aren’t coping but denying reality won’t change that. The reason I was so late to post today was because I was working, so get fcked on that one. As for experiencing lockdown, I’ve worked in isolation enough to know I can handle it better than most. Still doesn’t change the reality, the lockdown isn’t going away, all this endless posting on why it should is pointless, the decision has been made, deal with it or lose your mind, it is entirely up to you.

          • I’m in NSW so like you we have no place telling others in Melb that have been in endless lockdown to just deal with it. You deal with it and see if you can cope, depression/suicide is a real issue that no one discusses or cares about. I apologise for making an assumption for dole keeper.

          • MSM today covering mental health package put forward by govt., it is being talked about. I’m fcking talking about it, I’m not being flippant when I say people need to get help, I’m serious, denying the reality of the lockdown doesn’t help – it’s real, it’s here to stay, if people find themselves constantly posting about alternatives to the lockdown when we know the VIC govt is going full lockdown regardless, they seriously need to re-evaluate and reach out to someone who can help them. Endless railing against the lockdown won’t help. It is happening, people have to deal with it.

            Also for the record I’m 50/50 working/dole. If Scomo had managed the borders better I’d still be working “full-time” casual.

        • I live in Wyndham, worst hit LGA. Lockdown unfortunate but essential. And yes I know people impacted by COVID and in hospital, the one in hospital in her 40s. Government had to go to Level 4 to stop the lunatics spreading it further. 5km limit very tight here, but we just have to make it work and ride it out.

      • We’ve been in this now for 8 months and people are loosing their sh1t. WW II went on for 6 years where many civilians endured and suffered way worse conditions. In Australia, many had to endure hard food and electricity rationing and lockdown conditions for years, my parents use to tell me about Townsville during the war. Resilience is a trait we’ve lost in our ” all about me” city centric society, we’ve not had to endure hardships for generations. Why is suicide now such an issue when at least one man a day was committing suicide before CoVid? Mental health issues were also prevalent before CoVid, so again, why the sudden interest? It’s not easy, was never going to be no matter which route we took.

        • For me personally it is not hardship that has affected my mental state but the diminishment of my locus of control. I am incredibly self reliant by nature. I’m not saying it’s even rational but it’s real and I’m surely not the only one experiencing the rage and frustration that this has raised in me. I’ve never felt like this. And I have sought professional help to try and understand it. I’m told it is more common in rural folk than city dwellers as well as it being a philosophical bent that some are raised to admire. It’s not very useful to me under these conditions, I know that much. Haha.

    • Lsksh, hang in there mate. We’re 8 months into this now, which means 8 months closer to potential vaccines, and other remedies. Our species may be dumb at times but overall I have faith in human ingenuity and resourcefulness. We have the greatest minds in the world all working on it. I have no doubt that we’ll have a handle on this soon.

      • I used to think our society worked for the greater good too, but not entirely sure at this stage. If or when there’s a vaccine we will see if we really have a global community.
        To be sure while brilliant scientists work away, someone is working a way to benefit financially, but with lot more cunning
        I won’t be getting jabbed early anyway, I’ll be waiting on the real trial on a few 100 million first. I’m not trusting the amount of pressure to get this out, to get it right first time.

    • Thanks for the kind words. I have good and bad days but I admit I was susceptible to mental health issues prior to these crazy times. Me and a LOT of other people. Anyhow, this is a big issue but my hope when I posted was to get some discussion on the other costs (and benefits I guess) associated with the lockdown approach. For example, I mention political; what have our governments learned about us as a society from this experiment? Have we given away some of our fundamental freedoms in the face enough fear that a similar technique may be used again, possibly for nefarious purposes? Would the same have worked in other societies (like France)? Was the level and swiftness of the lockdown influenced by a desire to change the optics of our government after the quarantine failure or was it purely based on health? Philosophical; how much freedom and for how long are we as individuals and a society going to voluntarily surrender? Is it ever morally right to to take away innocent people’s freedoms? Are we guilty of a precrime? How much information should we be supplied and then allowed to make up our own risk/reward judgments for ourselves vs having those decisions made for us? Moral; were we given a noble lie about face masks at any time? Should the government be allowed to decide who lives and who dies? Or who’s chances of living they will increase at the expense of others lives they are aware they will diminish? Realism; if we are not at a low enough rate of transmission by the end of 6 weeks is it even realistic to consider extending them? Or making the restrictions even more restrictive? If things really start to spread in an uncontrolled way then can we double down and mobilise the army to lock us down further or do we admit defeat and let it rip? At what point will noncompliance become the norm due to necessity?

      Does our government not owe us an explanation of their plans beyond 6 weeks? If we eradicate? If we suppress? If we never get control? What then? Is there an end game plan? We (most) are doing our bit but being kept mostly in the dark on what we are trying to achieve beyond the immediate hope of bringing the number of infections down.

        • I’m not arguing you however we pick and chose the risks we take every day. Locking everyone down is one way, giving people the information they need to decide for themselves what level of risk they are prepared to take is another. Every time you cross the road you are putting yourself at risk of being run down by someone that may lose control of their vehicle. It’s a balancing act of risk vs reward. The problem with this particular instance is that both the risks of the virus are large but the price is also huge. I do not believe that we as a society got much input in making this decision and going by what other countries are doing it seems that many have decided to go about it differently. We can’t all be basing it on the science or we would all be doing the same thing. And if we are going to be forced into lockdown as part of our strategy then we are owed at least a detailed description of the plan we are following and the goals we are trying to achieve.

          • A significant number of people have limited risk management skills. If it was a case of taking personal risk and wearing the consequences it’s easy. You own your own actions.
            But this disease severely multiplies the consequences of ones actions, potentially. And many people don’t understand that affect, so the decision is taken out of their hands.
            Notice the murmurings of discontent got just a little quieter when there were a couple of 700 case days and getting towards 20 deaths, also a little younger. What would the numbers need to be that causes people to ‘want’ to be locked down, as opposed to have to be locked up ?
            A number that is interesting overseas is the excess deaths in an area or country. This seems to expand particularly during high covid outbreaks. Could we find that after less travel, workplace and recreational activity, we may have had less deaths comparatively, overall ( not withstanding other unfortunate situations caused by lockdown).
            That data to quantify this response being right or wrong may not be known for a long time. Certainly not in the near term.

          • TightwadMEMBER

            I really feel for you, unfortunately you are on the wrong forum for a balanced debate as most on here are rabid ‘trash civil liberties and lock us all up diehards’. Personally, I am horrified that our society has turned into N Korea overnight on the basis of experts models that are always so wrong it is laughable. I note also that more and more people are turning to this viewpoint. The UN put out a report indicating that 10k kids a month could be expected to die as a result of the lockdowns (malnutrition, lack of access to healthcare etc) but that gets no airtime as it doesn’t fit the hysteria narrative.

          • I’m not sure labelling expert models as laughable, but then quoting a UN report as backup for an opinion is doing much for the credibility …… just saying

          • RobotSenseiMEMBER

            “Personally, I am horrified that our society has turned into N Korea overnight on the basis of experts models that are always so wrong it is laughable.”

            Please. Talk about hyperbole. This is far from North Korea. Think you could scream the above from your balcony in Pyongyang and not “disappear”?

            And perish that thought that a model – with a series of “best guess” underlying assumptions at the start of a novel viral pandemic, not taking into account any government intervention or self-preservation on behalf of the individual – might be wrong. I’d be more shocked if they were right.

      • Stay strong, you can do it. Could address each of your points but in short, take a look at what Dutton and the LNP were up to pre-CoVid and what they’ve been doing undercover of CoVid. Your “freedoms” are imaginary.

    • Thanks for the replies folks. I hope I may have added something to the discussion. It does seem like the whole COVID response has elicited a fervor in many akin to religion or politics and delving deep into the multivariate implications exposes more biases than it reveals new information. I have to admit my own if I’m being honest. I appreciate MB, I came for the articles but I stayed for the comments. I don’t have anything else to add at present so I will leave it there for now.

      • I wouldn’t worry to much LG, you appear to be one of the most stable people on here, good luck

  7. As some who has actually been not just locked down but locked up, I say to the people whinging about doing their bit for a healthy society by spending more time in the home they deemed so wonderful they paid a fortune for it, harden the eff up.
    We know we need a healthy society before we have a healthy economy just like we know we need a sustainable environment so we can have a sustainable society and economy. It hasn’t been that way for decades so wrecking some of the joint to get on track is fine by me. I am pretty sure me and my extended family have built some resilience into our lives and the coming reset might hurt a little but only for a few years. The joy of seeing real estate markets crash will outweigh any pain felt in particular. We could have done reform the easy way but this way will have to do.