Macro Afternoon

by Chris Becker

Asian stock markets are quite mixed going into the tail end of the trading week, with all eyes remaining on the big moves in precious metals with gold maintaining and then pushing well above the $2000USD per ounce level with silver again re-engaging its own little bubble, currently zooming past the $26USD per ounce level:

In mainland China, the Shanghai Composite is having another scratch session, unable to get anywhere and ready to close only a handful of points higher at 3373 points, while in Hong Kong the Hang Seng Index is still advancing to be up 0.3% to 25030 points. Japanese stocks are slipping however, with the Nikkei 225 falling 0.3% to 22514 points as Yen buying sees the USDJPY pair fall back to its Monday morning starting price just above the mid 105 level as this bounceback stalls:

The ASX200 eked out a very weak session today, unable to make any headway as bank stocks tumbled, with the index falling 0.6% to close a hair above the 6000 point level. Meanwhile the Australian dollar continued its own little surge making solid gains until late this afternoon, almost reaching the 72 handle as it followed other commodities higher:

Eurostoxx and S&P futures are lifting again, both up 0.3% or more, with the latter ready to exceed the 3300 point level as the tech stock bubble continues to inflate:

PS: that Axios interview was the funniest shit I’ve seen all year – if reality was a comedy….well done Jonathan Swan for holding truth to power.

 

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Comments

    • Someone gonna have to get me a Nelson Muntz meme generator – I am going to run out of “Ha Ha’s”.

      • That’s pure genius by Sam – only a pollie could come up with an idea like that. If were him I’d get that actioned ASAP before no one in the private sector actually has a job anymore.

    • Lol, VIC is a laggard compared with QLD – we have a much smaller economy and $95bn of debt (and growing like a weed).

      Giddy up!

        • Too many Labor gubbermints? Hard to say.

          It’s a resources thing, I think – the riches will continue to flow from the ground 4EVA — therefore spend like there’s no tomorrow. The ratings agencies are part of the problem because the existence of resources in this State means they give the state a pass when it comes to parlous finances.

    • TailorTrashMEMBER

      They will just have to rev up the speeding fines ( and the new nice little earner the phone spotting camera…although this one is hard to disagree with given the behaviour of phone adicts )
      …..every time I have been to Victoria I have come home with a fine from their sneaky hidden unsigned cameras
      …. Victoria…. the sneaky state

      • Lol. I’ve passed more speeding cameras in the past 2 months than I have in the past 2 or 3 years so you must be onto something.

        The weird bit is I’ve been speeding almost every time and expecting a letter in the mail but … nothing (so far)

  1. Ronin8317MEMBER

    “They’re dying, it’s true. It is what it is”. Trumps’ great and unmatched wisdom is on display again. Dan Andrews should learn from Trump and cancel the shutdown immediately.

    • $50 was the all-time high nearly ten yrs ago — will blow through that at some point. Just a question of when.

      Of course, Harry Dent will insist that silver’s going below $10 – ya know, deflation!

  2. I am the man on the silver mountain the the man give me your hand and I will take your spirt higher iam the man on the mountain silver mountain I will take you higher let you sprit burn brighter than fire

    • $40k from super (20k each) and then another $40k of govt incentives and they get a tiny house out in the boonies.

      But … at least they have no debt. Land value was $21k so not much more it could really fall in nominal terms right.

    • It tells us that there will always be another way to get FHBs to place their necks into the property noose.

      • To be fair if the land value was really $21K it’s not much of a noose… even if it crashes by 50% they haven’t lost much! 😁

    • On a serious note.. it is easy to forget how the market had boomed after the last dip. I am looking at house prices now and they are still crazy. I have NOT seen a drop in prices.

    • Arthur Schopenhauer

      Russell Island. Good luck to them. At least it’s not Macleay.

      There is a reason the block was so cheap. Hoards of sand flies and mosquitoes 🦟 envelop those islands during summer.

      Be sure to drop anchor on the Stradbroke side of the channel if you are ever in the area. 😀

  3. Because McGowan.

    https://www.watoday.com.au/national/western-australia/defence-force-adds-another-layer-of-security-at-perth-quarantine-hotels-20200805-p55isp.html

    The 50 troops arrived at five hotels on Tuesday where around 1170 people are quarantining; 700-800 from overseas and more than 400 from Victoria

    WA Chief Health Officer Andy Robertson said three Perth security guards had tested positive for COVID-19 since mandatory quarantining was introduced in March.

    “In WA we had three [infections] at an early stage, some weeks to months ago now, of three breaches. They were addressed and the issues around them were reviewed and improved,” he said last week.

    “I think our arrangements are as good, if not better than other jurisdictions.

    “They are managed by a very experienced and trained security force who are trained in personal protective equipment … they do not allow people to go out and have a cigarette or go and have some time out, they’re very tightly controlled.”

  4. So I want to know from you shut ins on job seeker, what is the next step if this Wuhanesque lockdown that you crave so much doesn’t work, stage 5, 10, 15? Anyone who leaves their house for god forbid food gets their head removed? This country will collapse for generations if this continues on this path until Christmas.

    • reusachtigeMEMBER

      Fearful chicken sh1t cunce are destroying this once proud and strong fighting nation.

    • Aussies Can't Socially Distance

      I’d like the virus gone from our shores. It’s the only way forward. If some people have to eat beans and noodles until Christmas that’s for them to deal with.

      • It won’t be gone by Christmas, what’s next please tell me? If some people never afford to buy a house and live like peasants with no job for life then that’s for them to deal with.

        • Aussies Can't Socially Distance

          We’ll let it rip and Victorians will have all kinds of health problems and shorter lifespans than people in other states.

        • ErmingtonPlumbingMEMBER

          If their numbers grow to much then you and/or people you love will be dealing with it also.

        • Not gone but contained. Like WA. All covide cases in quarantine from overseas diseased persons heading to WA because freedom of movement is now a thing. Why would you not aim for that.

        • Well that peasantry hasn’t been a problem for governments till now has it? Not since all these nice non dole bludgers lost their jerbs

    • This shut-in on js will be kinda pee’d off if her js is taken away from her come Sept if the liquid asset test is applied to people already in the system. Apart from that I’m not expecting to be able to go back to work before Xmas which sucks but at this stage I’m emotionally going down the path of least resistance, which means I don’t give a fck. As the great El Trumpo says, it is what it is. Who the heck knows what the right decisions are to be made? I can’t be bothered getting too emotional about it given that I don’t think I can influence those decisions and I’m very glad I don’t have to make those decisions (I try not to be too hypocritical in life). Having said that if they open the borders I will be apoplectic with rage; I’m not sacrificing so that they can open the borders and let the parasites (Unis, property developers, banks etc) try to maintain their wealth. Fck em all, if we’re going to have economic pain then those pr1cks deserve to share in the pain, lets be generous with it.

      • Here’s a (potentially) interesting anecdote for you Popstar – I got onto the UQ Job Alerts email many years ago and never unsubscribed. Well, I’ve maintained a mild interest from afar in what roles they’re looking to fill and lo and behold, very recently they have a heap of positions for programmers, systems and software gurus (remote learning for International and local students is the future after all?) . This is almost the first time I have come across roles on the programming side.

        And there was one role for an Administrator — International students … (perhaps the rest were sacked or left in disgust??)

        • Hopefully internally they’ve come to recognise that the foreign student trade that required the actual movement of bodies across borders is dead and now they’re madly trying to defend what market share they have and make sure they have a reliable offering in the about to be cut throat market of distance learning (cos every uni on the planet will be offering courses via distance ed so it’s now truly a global higher ed market). Can I say “suck eggs you bastards, you’re getting what you deserve!’?

          That’s a really nice anecdote, thanks. Makes me feel better about missing out on ivr this am at 4.6 cents

    • I have not stopped work and the old bloke two houses up has asked for a quote for his place after watching the job being done down the road.

      Sharing, gig, pencil pusher brigade does seem exposed [tm].

        • From what I can gather from MB scuttle butt and gleaned scraps, skip is from a family involved in banking, served in US armed forces as a young man and then perhaps did some economics study/work before eventually ending up as a house spray painter in Brisbane. Many gaps in my profile but this is the best I have to offer.

          • Skip is many things to many people. More importantly he is whatever you want him to be. A comments thread Rorschach test. But beware, it may not be Skip that you see. It may be a cruel reflection of yourself laid bare. If this is the case I recommend dropping another tab, and just getting back to herding those metaphysical cats that are causing you all that bother.

          • Spray painter … sigh …

            Take a 100 year old house down to bare, replace rotten timber, and professionally apply coatings to high spec and finish. My jobs last years more than the paint warranty, especially if they wash it once a year – 12 years . Won’t find many using Devilbiss conventional gear in this market, let alone the Festool stuff. This kind of work takes a lot of knowledge and skill that can’t just be gotten in a trade school or a few years of cut and rolling.

            Job I’m on now is the result of previous painters screw ups inside and started outside before given the flick – clients are in a whole new world now … value for money. On one street in Bardon we’ve done 6 houses in less than 2 years, referral is our biggest client base, we don’t low ball our bids and then cut corners.

            BTW most I’ve seen don’t even know how to set up and use a spray anything, correctly, its some small pump with a big tip whacking away like a 4 banger with the throttle to the floor and spew it everywhere [then wonder why its always breaking down or not functioning correctly] – wastage is obscene.

            But yeah …. learn to code … mirth …

            @footsore … its been interesting watching you “change” over the years …

          • @skip – so you use a spray gun to paint houses? Yes? Sorry I forgot you also do some maintenance/repairs along the way. My old man does the exact same job as you and has done since the 60’s and still just calls himself a brush hand. Your hubris is why people treat you with hostility

          • Spray painting.

            I’m visualising muscular shirtless men with a huge sword standing over busty women in leather bustles on a stormy background with lightning rending the air.

            And that’s just the letter box art.

          • Please [email protected] … I used to do big projects with critical infrastructure and take personal pride in my work, so don’t confuse it with arrogance. That’s why I used to get called up to fix jobs back in the day, though I don’t blame the trades, industry is always tirelessly lowering standards and skill needs for decades. Market dynamics now days make it a dogs breakfast to pass on skills to the newer entrants to the market as well the stigma promoted during Howard’s years on trades people vs credentialed professionals and then wonder why so many would rather do anything than be a trades person, even for less money.

            I use air less as delivery system, spray finish where applicable and brush or roller lay off the same, pressure pot with Devilbiss GTI Pro Lite gun for surfaces that require automotive like finishes and you won’t find over spray all over the place or on the floor – wastage. Same goes for the Festool stuff, air extraction for all sanding – air environment, contamination mitigation, less consumables, faster and finer finish.

            I don’t show up at jobs with milk crates like pub painters, I give clients information to make decisions – options rather than do a half @ss job and then think the client is a pain. Must be why we don’t get call backs where others are happy to risk it for a fatter bottom line in the short term, one+ out of ten is fine in their book.

            I’m long term greedy and care about my personal reputation both in the market and in the community.

        • As I’ve stated in the dim MB past I worked in T1 and during a few transitions worked in trades, even showed a house I worked on from slab to key for leading architectural firm back in the day in L.A., then moved to Boulder Colorado and was partners in a industrial national tile and coatings company – T1 national and international clients, its there I met my Australian wife. Quick stint back in T1 here and remembered why I left it. After that I did civil and industrial projects here in Australia, Transfield, Bechtel, Monadelphous, retired in 08 to let wife peruse new career in paramedical science, about 3 years ago got bored after kids were mostly sorted and found a good young guy with starter family and small business, so I started working with him. Enjoy using my customer experience and trade knowledge in sorting out old Queenslanders – post war [90%+ of buisness], and a few 70s – 80s houses.

          Financial knowledge started at the dinner table as mother was a CPA for Monsanto, previously a commodities trader, and had a few private accounting shops. Its here as a kid I used to reconcile red, black and green ledgers with an old mechanical key calculator and could see the books of half the town. Dad was a computer engineer for BofA and attended the swankiest schools in Chicago – big family networks.

          All knowledge is my passion since as a kid.

          Besides the end results of my labour I also enjoy the discussions I have with the clients, wide ranging in age and experience. Say this job I’m on now and the couples day jobs, law, and what a small world it is around here …

          • Finally … all good to hear.

            Any Ermo-style discounts for doing-it-tough MB members?

          • Went through all this over the years at MB as some demanded or required a back drop to flesh out where my perspectives come from. Lmmao I’m a MBA from the 80s and owned about 10 business over the years, couple of degrees – minor in Geo for example. My portfolio is diverse, its why I have attended so many national and international trade shows like CES, SIAL, et al, because my work required and encompassed so many aspects of what occurs at such events. Chemical, food, electronics etc, production and distribution centers, per se Ashland, Apple, VSA, true value hardware, and even a new casino in Vegas, million+ sq ft floor and wall stuff.

            But hay its not all about me, some are want through the years to use that rhetorical style, then when you present information use that to attack you with, you know the game.

            So with all that in mind yes I’m MMT post Keynesian, primarily on the grounds of its analytical – evidence methodology countenanced by all the historical information about the others including its application and its results. When something better comes along I’ll shift to that E.g. I don’t have a bad case about religion with any of it.

    • Mining BoganMEMBER

      The whole poo thing is just a reflection of Melburnians thinking their city is as fancy as Paris. Ever been to Paris? I have. Dirty place and dog sh!t everywhere. Tourists would mistake me for a local and ask directions because I’m scruffy and smelly.

      I pick up Jack’s poo though. Twice. Jack Two-Poos he’s called. Two poos. Every. Single. Time. Second one always after the first bag has been deposited in a bin.

      • TailorTrashMEMBER

        Have to agree …Paris is shabby plus ..and their metro system is beyond comprehension…..you can see why their colonial empire was largely in deserts of North Africa .
        ….

        • Actually their metro is so logical, I know it by heart even after years of being there. Its impressive they had metro in 1911 and Melbourne removing train line crossing in 2020

      • Locus of ControlMEMBER

        My old dog (sadly now deceased) would wait until we had an audience (the more the better and doubly good if it was a family with young kids watching on) and then unload right in the middle of the footpath. Yes, I did bag and bin it. But I couldn’t believe it. We’d be walking,walking, walking, no-one around, nothing and then the moment there were people, bam. Every. Single. Time.

  5. migtronixMEMBER

    This is exactly what you’d expect with a career politician running the show. Out of Uni became some shlub staffer somewhere and climbed that tard-ladder.

    Knows exactly how to use pieces of paper to crush you and hide his failures.

    Knows nothing about achieving a result and thinking outside the box and owning his errors

  6. Wework Is broke

    https://www.afr.com/policy/health-and-education/csl-chief-calls-for-new-virus-strategy-20200803-p55i78

    CSL boss says elimination is the wrong strategy on a costs vs benefit analysis. Who you gonna trust and who has more credibility? A bunch of MB health policy noobies or a seasoned expert such as the good doctor? VIC needs to stop the complete lockdown disaster immediately and revert back to a containment strategy. The state and country will be better for it in the long run. To focus solely on elimination at all costs is utter madness and only delays the inevitable.

    • So what are his qualifications?How would CSL benefit from each scenario?
      I would suggest the psychopaths that are running out publicly listed companies even if health related are the last people we should listen to

        • Precisely. CSL make flu vaccines. If a COVID vaccine is found then it is likely that it will be combined with the flu vaccine in a single shot. CSL will not have the COVID vaccine and therefore their sales of flu only shots would be drastically reduced.

        • There is so much obfuscation and bias in this whole debate, I’m less the wiser today than I was 5 months ago.

      • Agree. He’s just an angry boomer ranting because he hasn’t accepted what has happened yet.

      • Agree. Just how much extra shareholder value would prolonging the pandemic create versus wiping it out entirely?

  7. Robert Johnson

    3-4 weeks into this and if we are still at several hundred cases each day (ie. the Lockdown and Masks being pointless), I’m going to start organising anti-Lockdown anti-Government protests. A lot of people are with me.

  8. We are back in full bubble territory now. Everything is up. Some past the February highs.
    S&P has gap ups and down all over the place. Looks like a penny stock.
    I think another rogue virus and 150k deaths might push it to new highs

      • Hey he’s been on Gummie since 2013, poor bloke has invested at least 7 years of his life here. I wonder if he thinks the return on his investment has been worth the outlay?

        • tripsterMEMBER

          That’s a lot of English and cooking courses to have enrolled in. Not to mention all the kms put on the Camry driving Uber. Lots of costs before he breaks even.

  9. Got an email from my local Yo-Chi to let me know that they’ll be open until 10pm throughout lockdown for all my frozen yoghurt needs. Obviously only by Uber Eats after 8pm curfew! There are some fücking big holes in this lockdown.
    I hope the constabulary don’t take kindly to the groups of drivers that usually hang out in groups waiting to deliver food. With a bit of luck they’re just trying to earn enough to pay for an airline ticket home.

    • I got an email from my Traditional Chinese medicine clinic (no ethnic Chinese practitioners as we’re outside of melb but still considered metro melb) almost sobbing saying they’re so sorry but they’re closing as the 99k potential fine isn’t worth it. They can do Tele medicine for $40 but that doesn’t help with my need for acupuncture for pain control. All I can say is my gp clinic better make sure if I use up my mersyndol they prescribe me more given my non-medicinal pain control has now been removed from me (I’ll continue to do all my exercises but sometimes its a mystery as to what trips a pain episode). They alsosaid if their closing caused any mental health for people to do xyz.

      Frozen yoghurt can be made at home if you’re desperate, effective acupuncture of the not self harm variety, not so much

  10. So this Dees Crows game tonight is a win win in my books

    Lose and we can finally get rid of Goodwin
    Win and finals are still alive (until we get flogged by the Shinboners …. and then we sack him)

    #operationGetClarko

  11. I met a new work colleague today and didn’t shake his hand. I felt diminished.

    Damn the CCP to the seventh level of hell. If I had the chance I’d shoot Xi the Pooh, and whistle while I worked.

    • I’m genuinely sad that something as meaningless as a hand shake means so much to you. Why does it matter? Random touching of hands is of zero real value.

      I grew up in a town of absolute grubs, the sort that would literally shake your hand and punch you in the face at the same time. This obviously shaped my stance on handshakes but also highlighted how unimportant physical contact is to genuine greetings.

      • True dat

        The right, manly way to do this is a hug, a kiss or a lick or a bit of a dry Aussie r00t

        #12thMan

      • I’m sad and astonished that the meaning of something as deeply culturally significant as a handshake eludes you. I grew up among decent men where handshakes were everything from a warm greeting to a binding contract. Refusing a handshake is the most profound insult I can imagine.

        To me, you sound like you come from Mars.

        • I’m as confused as you. I place more meaning in earnest and honest words than physical gestures. To me a handshake can be faked, but true honesty is spoken and a persons word is worth more.