Links 5 August 2020

Global Macro / Markets / Investing:





Leith van Onselen
Latest posts by Leith van Onselen (see all)



    It’s Now Virtually Impossible To Get A Bank Loan As Lending Standards Soar … Zerohedge

    One quarter ago we pointed out something concerning: shortly after JPMorgan reported that its loan loss provision surged five fold to over $8.2 billion for the first quarter, the biggest quarterly increase since the financial crisis, in preparation for the biggest wave of commercial loan defaults since the financial crisis (a number which in the latest quarter surged to $10.5 billion along with all other banks’ loan loss provisions)… … read more via hyperlink above …

  2. haroldusMEMBER

    Just got the car rego’d. As I’ve driven it less than 1000 km since last service in January my mechanic kindly did the inspection as I waited – he always looks after it.

    He’s cheeky cause he wants to buy it for nothing and sell again (“Oooh the odometer’s getting high, let me know if you want to get rid of it”). But my brother wants to buy it too. Of course we are only talking $3-4K.

    Anyway, the rego and 3rd party are getting pretty expensive.

    For Rego
    Renewal cost: $377.00
    GST: $0.00
    Itemised fees
    Registration Fee Cars and Wagons $67.00
    Motor Vehicle Tax – Weight Tax $310.00
    Total cost $377.00
    Merchant fee incl. GST: $1.66
    Amount paid with Visa ending in MBMB: $378.66
    Total amount: $378.66

    For NRMA Green slip
    With many alleged discounts

    2002 BMW 330I CTP Green Slip | $470.49

    For Inspection fee
    this is fair enough, goes to the mechanic I hope.

    Harry’s Mechanic $42.00

    So, in total
    378.66 + 470.49 + 42.00 = 891.15

    I have comprehensive insurance which adds another $1200 ( I think, will need to check)

    So in total, without maintenance costs, in NSW it costs just over $2000 pa to even get an older car on the road, let alone keep maintained, or take into account running costs.

    I’m full time employed, and I was a little shocked at these prices.

    Reason for this long post – expect unregistered/unisured cars on the road to increase in number.

    • Harry in Victoria vintage cars (25+) years old qualify for historic registration. costs like $80 for 45 days or $150 odd for 90 days.

      Insurance costs are often rock bottom too. I agree NSW is ridiculous for insurance costs and road tax + annual inspection.

      I used to pay it for the RX7 and never drove the damn thing! Stupid Labrador. Giving me guilty eyes when I’d leave him at home…

    • Keep the 330. Nice model.
      As to older unrego/uninsured cars on the road – in Vic we now have automatic number plate recognition on all highway patrol cars and they can also set up traps where they scan all passing vehicles. You’d be begging to be caught these days in the Police state.

      • Police state wrt to unregistered cars, righto. Now I’ve heard it all. Driving is a privilege, not a right.

    • Why paying $1200 (with 500-750 excess) for comprehensive insurance for a car that costs 3-4k and gets driven 50h a year?
      Unless you smash a car every two years … insurance company must love you
      Does than sound unreasonable

      • Know IdeaMEMBER

        If his matured Beemer is at fault in a scrap with a brand new Bentley the scales may tip the other way.

        • pfh007.comMEMBER

          Just getting a 3rd party property policy is an option for that scenario.

          Comprehensive is good when some clown runs into you and you don’t want the hassle of chasing them for the money.

          The sting in comprehensive is that you need to get the other cars rego and driver details in order to avoid paying your excess to make a claim. So those bump and run drivers are still a problem.

          In the last 5 years I have had my car repaired three times due to idiots running into me.

  3. The state of disaster declaration will empower the police minister, Lisa Neville, to appoint police as authorised officers. This means when doing spot checks on people’s homes, if the residents did not give permission for them to enter, police will be authorised to enter without a warrant.


      • just read the story … it’s a very good example how adult can pass disease to kids …
        138 trainees and 120 staff members stayed there for 4 days before kids arrived and than just 3 days later they had outbreak. It’s clear who was source and who was infected

        something else is also interesting: almost 600 attended the camp, 344 got tested and 260 were positive while only 100 had any symptoms, 250 were not tested
        It’s reasonable to assume that among 250 not tested large % was also infected (90% of cabins had confirmed cases) but just had no symptoms.

        we can see that asymptomatic cases comprise between 60% and 80% of all cases

    • That’s what happens when you store goods for an emergency that never fully materialises on time. I’ll bet the explosives were stored right next door to the warehouse full of toilet paper…..

    • Hell of an “Accident”. Farmers used to leave piles of it laying around everywhere, never a prob. They now need a ticket for it & don’t store it in case they’re raided by the wrong types. AFAIK it’s inert without the right reagent in the right ratio’s……. then it’s unstable, but still needs a det…..

    • Did they hire the same security guards company in charge of COVID quarantine in Victoria?
      What? Too soon?

  4. migtronixMEMBER

    ” To make matters worse, the three main security contractors contracted on short notice to guard the hotels, Wilson, MSS and Unified Security, had to respond so quickly they were relying on a range of little-known subcontractors to supply hundreds of often ill-prepared and ill-equipped guards. The workforce, according to sources deeply involved in the industry, was a mix of international students – some recruited via WhatsApp messages – working alongside a smattering of local security guards.”

    Can’t wait for the Dan sycophants to trot out from under the bridge….

    • but they just wanted to run quarantine efficiently to save public money, just like closing hospitals in 2001 to have more efficient health care system – no spare beds

  5. “”Melbourne University epidemiologist Professor Tony Blakely told he didn’t think there was a stage five, at least not that he knew of, but he did think authorities could further tweak current restrictions.

    Among them, he said, authorities could narrow the definition of an essential worker, restrict shopping to once a week, shut all takeaway and make mask-wearing compulsory
    in the home.”””

    Yep he wants people to wear masks inside their homes :/

    • stage 6 will be to execute people to reduce chance of spread because virus needs a live hosts

      we need to do anything to save few elderly lives, same lives we do nothing about when they get threaten by flu or any other infection respiratory diseases that kills up to 10k people every year

    • Don’t worry these restrictions go to 11. But why not make Stage 4 tighter? Puzzled look and pause…These go to 11…

    • Nothing untoward about compulsory quarantine… has been used in all pandemics since humans figured these things out. Plenty of room for a few barbed wire compounds in the Simpson Desert for all the sovereign citizens to rule themselves in.

      • migtronixMEMBER

        Really? Name me one time in history an entire nations population was put under compulsory quarantine, you psychopath! Quarantine is for sick people and always has been…

        • we know you’re enjoying this because your job seeker payments are way up

          More money to spend on tattoos and cigarettes

          • Not going to lie, the boosted dole is pretty good.

            But, would still prefer to have the job I had before Scomo ruined our economy and closed down my workplace by keeping the border open and even allowing/encouraging infected foreign students to game the system and infect our country.

            I don’t smoke and tattoos at this time would be a waste of money. I’m mostly filling my time creating my inner city garden to feed myself. Also back to working weekends. We know why I have so much time to waste here what’s the excuse for you and the Dr?

            Also, your reply doesn’t rebut the fact you and Dr.X are the raving lunatics.

    • migtronixMEMBER

      Shopping once a week? The luxury! Why not just inject the virus straight into your eyeball?? Once a year, maybe.

      • Less than 1% contagious, 5-10% at some risk (~5% chance of dying) yet remaining >90% of population who are no under any elevated threat nor a threat to others are put under house arrest without a due process just based on a few indicidual expert opinions that it may work and without any evidence that it will.

        What to say … our forefathers from the Enlightenment era would have been proud of the progress achieved since
        Btw. when it comes to injecting the virus, there was an interview with a Swedish doctor who said she was not lucky to get infected yet so she cannot go to the normal parties others go. Also she pointed out that doctors who had covid are the best asset of the hospital she works in because they cannot spread the virus and they can rely on them to be there when needed (will not get sick)