Links 11 August 2020

Global Macro / Markets / Investing:





Leith van Onselen
Latest posts by Leith van Onselen (see all)


  1. I was out in Eastland at 12:00am tonight, way past curfew. Had to get some essentials for the bub. Anyway, hardly a soul on the road, which means lockdowns being followed by most. A couple of cars here and there, but could be out for necessities and legit reasons such as I (Chemist Warehouse visit).
    I did see a cop car, pull up next to me at the lights, was expecting to be questioned, but they didn’t.

    • migtronixMEMBER

      How about no inflation breakout with mass unemployment and no wage rise? I’m shorting silver here, 3mth 6mth and 12mth

  2. PalimpsestMEMBER

    The WSJ article above suggesting China is recovering supports the argument that successful management of COVID is the best outcome for the economy too. The recovery isn’t back to what it was, but better than the Swedish or US outcomes.


    Lack of affordable housing forcing Wellington tertiary students to drop studies or leave capital … Damian George … Stuff NZ

    A lack of affordable housing is forcing an increasing number of tertiary students to leave Wellington or stop studying altogether, the city’s Youth Council says. … read more via hyperlink above …
    Survivor City: I live on $246 a week in Christchurch. Friends in Auckland pay more in rent … Steven Walton … Stuff NZ

    OPINION: Christchurch is the ideal city for a student to be living in as New Zealand’s Covid-19 recovery begins.

    As we deal with the fallout of Covid-19 and all the economic uncertainties, I want to live in an affordable and accessible city that can still offer the vibrancy, convenience, and luxury of an expensive city.

    • Hiding these Federal officers from scrutiny clearly show who is responsible for the Ruby Princess debacle.

    • billygoatMEMBER

      She’s the unwitting star of the $how – no script. Removes focus from writers & directors of Ruby Princess side show.

  4. PalimpsestMEMBER

    If the US breaks, then we all have a problem. Sobering view from NYT that the inadequate measures announced by the President will stymie any effective relief deal being struck.
    Krugmans’ analysis (part quote because behind paywall):
    “Unfortunately, one of the measures was vacuous, one trivial and one unworkable. And the fourth may do substantial harm.
    The vacuous measure simply calls on government agencies to “consider” helping renters facing eviction. The trivial measure waives interest and defers principal repayment on student loans.
    The unworkable measure supposedly provides new aid to the unemployed, who have lost pandemic benefits because Senate Republicans don’t want to provide them; but the announced program would be an administrative nightmare that might take a long time to put into effect and would require partial matching funds that strapped states don’t have. Remember, states had a very hard time implementing the first round of aid to the unemployed, leaving millions in the cold for many weeks. This would be worse.
    But the really substantive measure would direct employers to stop collecting payroll taxes on behalf of their workers.
    […..] No reputable economist I know considers a payroll tax cut a good idea. Even if the money went to workers, which it almost certainly wouldn’t, it would go to precisely the wrong ones — workers who haven’t lost their jobs in the pandemic, not those who have. It wouldn’t encourage hiring, because what’s holding employers back isn’t cost, it’s the shutdown of activities with a high risk of infection (like indoor dining). [….]
    The main point, however, is that we’re facing a moment of crisis. The emergency relief that sustained the U.S. economy through the coronavirus has expired, even though the pandemic is still very much with us. Unless very quick action is taken, consumer spending is about to collapse, bringing the whole economy down with it.”

    I don’t like where this is going.