Iron ore prices for August 18, 2020:
Do not adjust your TV. Spot is approaching my $130 target and I may have been too bearish. Paper to the moon. Rebar too. I suspect coking coal is being destocked in a desperate bid to sustain steel mill profitability.
This still has a month or so to run before seasonality weighs. The key is low inventories in China which are restocking:
But probably have another 30-40mt to go before any peak. That will take another six months.
How high could prices go over that period? $150 is now possible. When iron ore runs it runs hard.
Empty apartments are still booming:
And Brazil is still struggling:
I will go so far as to say that if Vale does not return volumes soon then $150 is the base case before the crash.