Weekend Reading 11-12 July 2020

Global Macro / Markets / Investing:

Americas:

Europe:

Asia:

Trans-Tasman:

Leith van Onselen

Comments

      • @gav
        Re J Kirner
        Think VIC moved to QLD
        Heard many came back 5 or so years later too hot

        Many of you on this site that are around 40 years old even 42/45, recessions are brutal. You haven’t lived through one
        The older say from 50 onwards have experienced the 1990s recession.

          • ErmingtonPlumbingMEMBER

            On the way down to Bermagui yesterday I noticed no attempts at social distancing yesterday.
            All the towns on the way down had their Main Street pavements and coffee shops packed shoulder to shoulder.
            I’d thought they’d be fvck all people down here being winter school holidays.
            Lots of Victoria number plates around.

        • working class hamMEMBER

          People that in their early 40’s would remember the 90’s recession.
          My old man drove 1.5 hours every morning to get the paper straight off the presses in Brisbane for the jobs section. Slept out the front of the site until the boss rocked up, just hoping to get a day of work.

        • With the same theme

          It’s these same kids on after pay that are not only using after pay but buying their shares
          Tesla Netflix up 10% each there about over night

          I’ve been around long enough to know when it’s time to call BS on this speculation

          If you are wrong it can cost a lot because these tech shares just brutalise short sellers like Jim Chanos

          I’ve shorted the Nasdaq Tesla Netflix last night and all the other over inflated BS IT companies

          It feels to me it’s now time for the BIG SHORT the Sequel

          These young kids are going to get a lesson in how dangerous speculating

          They don’t have the experience to know when to exit

          It’s time to bet against them and I’m happy to sit through a bit of pain

          The share market can disconnect from real economy but only for so long

          The world economy is in major crisis

          CB stimulus only works for so long and eventually reality sets in

          • Ronin8317MEMBER

            I am a huge fan of Elon Musk, however Tesla being worth more than Toyota is pure humbug.

          • @Ronin
            Although I can’t confirm but my guess it’s the young retailers buying these IT stocks
            I’d be surprised if the smart money is buying here
            My guess it’s ROBINHOOD speculators

        • Mining BoganMEMBER

          25% of our staff is about to be laid off. The kids still don’t understand how disastrous this will be for them. There’s still a good amount of them taking no interest in the struggle to hold jobs. Plenty of whinging about not being able to head north to the beach though. I’m especially fond of the young’un who called me out of touch with reality when I dared to suggest that maybe a savings buffer would be more important right now.

          They’ve got no idea what is c0ming.

          • they don’t know what’s coming and even the mainstream economists don’t know either

            Get ready guys, the house price falls are going to start accelerating across the country, we are now headed into IRELAND 2.0, the greatest housing crash of any country any time ever, as prices crash into rising interest rates, companies declare bankruptcy and AUST wealth gets obliterated, equity markets meltdown, as people eventually move their super to (so called safe haven), …..fixed income interest rates are going to rise & fixed income is going to crash too
            The global derivatives market is going to unwind taking every major financial institution in derivatives down along with many other financial institutions
            The greatest financial crash that’s going to make the GFC look like the teddy bears picnic
            THIS IS THE MELTDOWN that no one inc any CB can stop this time

          • Get ready guys, the house price falls are going to start accelerating across the country, we are now headed into IRELAND 2.0, the greatest housing crash of any country any time ever, as prices crash into rising interest rates, companies declare bankruptcy and AUST wealth gets obliterated, equity markets meltdown, as people eventually move their super to (so called safe haven), …..fixed income interest rates are going to rise & fixed income is going to crash too
            The global derivatives market is going to unwind taking every major financial institution in derivatives down along with many other financial institutions
            The greatest financial crash that’s going to make the GFC look like the teddy bears picnic

          • The Traveling Wilbur

            On that bankruptcy declaration point; ABC learned me something on that this week. The fill-in for Alan K. had a nice little chart of the typical company bankruptcy flow for the year (may have been last year’s) against this year’s. This year for the last four months is much LOWER than typical.

            Because there’s a moritorium on insolvency trading laws is what was given as the reason. Guess which month that moratorium ends. And guess what’ll happen then.

          • Stewie GriffinMEMBER

            Nothing is allowed to fail anymore – Scomo would happily roll out a UBI before he tolerated house prices down 20% and widespread bankruptcies daring to threaten ‘our’ banks. Debt MUST be serviced and maintained – that is the simply rule for the Global economy now.

            The pharisees have demanded that debts be honored and preserved, and the barbarians who serve them will ensure that it is.

          • @ Stewie
            Don’t be fooled
            They aren’t stopping the failure
            They are delaying it
            The longer they delay the bigger the crash
            Sorry mate if you are relying on SCOMO to save you you may as well jump now and get it over and done with

            Ok so we move the debt from private to public
            Then AUST will eventually default

          • MB, heard through the vine the APS is doing an “establishment review” which means they’ll take care of the last few remaining decent people to finally fullfill their ambition of having organisations brimming with workplace psychopaths.

            On the younger generation, my eldest finishes his economics degree this year. His verdict; we’re fvcked, it’s all over.

        • Seems the GFC and all the lead up is a forgotten memory with some … especially stuff like the Powell – Citi memo, Bush Jr turning a blind eye to endemic loan fraud, et al and how mercenary shorting for a quick buck turned what would have been a short recession into a global Minsky moment.

          I guess you’ll get that with sqillions of yield seekers without a series 6 or 7, RE horny orgies, and the order of the day being let them eat equities whilst the lower races do the labour thingy …. gaiety

        • matthewMEMBER

          The early 90s wasn’t really a bad recession .The early 80s now that was a recession to be remembered.Greater than 10percent unemployed etc

        • Diogenes the CynicMEMBER

          I remember. Old man lost his business and I was at uni – it was bloody hard to get a part time job then. I had two. It was tough to get a job post uni too – I did scores of letters, calls and interviews.

  1. boomengineeringMEMBER

    Anyhow, a guy asked me for directions and it turns out he placed in the WNBF natural bodybuilding contest and knew some people i knew. Showed me some photos which I promptly advised of his posing mistakes. (A lot of optical illusion rewuired required) and his arms were out of proportion as well. Asked him where he was from, Victoria, whoa, sign of the cross, he replied its Ok., reginal,

  2. UNITED STATES … NEW YORK … COVID RELATED UPDATES …

    Study finds high rates of positive COVID-19 tests in low-income NYC neighborhoods … Dr Shantum Misra … (US) ABCNews

    https://abcnews.go.com/Health/nyc-neighborhoods-obtained-herd-immunity-study-suggests/story?id=71692365

    Manhattan Rental Market Implodes: Median Rent Plunges Most Ever As Vacancies Hit Record High … Zerohedge

    https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/manhattan-rental-market-implodes-median-rent-plunges-most-ever-vacancies-hit-record-high

  3. Nobody replied to my comment in the afternoon, but a popular Youtube travel blogger nearly died from Covid-19. I saw him travel around when lockdowns were happening and some countries were not shutting down so he went there to keep travel going. Nearly cost him his life, he was lucky to get special treatment.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=clscC120ZQM

    It looks like it scared the bejesus out of him and shrunk his Johnson.
    So Reusa take note!

    And no joke, but apparently Baldness could be a risk factor.
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-06-24/coronavirus-baldness-may-be-risk-factor-covid-19/12385216

    • boomengineeringMEMBER

      As per above, thanks for easing the threat,, neither bald nor grey. Always knew there would be more than one benefit to being a late developer.

    • elasticMEMBER

      Yeah checked out the bald man’s clip and yes he got a reality check for sure. Bit of a near death experience by the looks of it. And it appears that he may have some concern about the livelihood of his member which I hadn’t heard about previously. Reusa take note.

    • Mining BoganMEMBER

      He’s still assuming he will get healthy enough to travel again. Also assuming that he can’t catch it again.

      May be some more rude shocks in his future.

    • Gav
      The upside of people exiting Melb and no immigration
      More hospital beds and DRs per person
      Dentist and Dr will get much cheaper in Melb
      You’ve scared the shite out of me with that video
      I was a sceptic but I’ve heard to people friends of friends
      A mate who is was captain at Q said a pilot mate had it and was really sick and a friend of my sister a guy 48 healthy fit got it really bad
      They both caught on a plane coming home from Asia
      I’ve heard planes are ok but I think planes are the worst
      Flying disease capsule
      Anyway I’m stepping up my protection

      • I posted it to remind everyone just how serious this thing is. All the idiots running around saying it is some big conspiracy need a reality check. I am not sure if we build up any form of immunity and we don’t know if we will be the 1 badly affected by it. And sure you can get past the worst of it, but you may end up with chronic fatigue for years after the event. Scary stuff. Not just the flu bro.

        • DominicMEMBER

          I hear a recent Lancet publication casts doubt on herd immunity. If so, the human race is in for a rough ride (absent a vaccine). Those fearing a global population growing eternally need not concern themselves.

      • Goldstandard1MEMBER

        That Qantas clown came out and said the filtration system changes the air in planes every 6 minutes or so, indicating planes are pretty safe. Apparently they are instant infection in reality though (a scientist mate who designed similar systems), because you are sitting in a sealed room for an extended time with an airborn virus that may not be circulating over and over, but people exhaling it consistantly fresh. Mmmmmmm fresh virus…..

    • Thanks for sharing this. Pretty compelling stuff.

      In the last video I saw, Mr Bald and Bankrupt was travelling around Belarus, which is probably not the best place to be at the moment given President Lukashenko’s rather cavalier attitude toward the pandemic and the lack of lockdowns in that country.

      • My best man at my wedding has caught Covid-19 and his whole family tested positive. He has also been pretty cavalier about it, but I am a bit worried because he is overweight, and balding etc.. and whilst the kids seem to be getting past it (Probably because their immune systems are still developing), I am more worried about him and if something happens the kids will have no father.

    • reynmonMEMBER

      Yeah Gavin, I’ve been watching him for a while along with Harald Baldr….I was wondering where B&Bs girlfriend is the gorgeous Alinchick I think he calls her.
      I was surprised how hard it hit him considering some of the places he’s been like Chernobyl.

    • PaperRooDogMEMBER

      need a few public health vids on telly etc showing lung drains without anaesthetic! Though the shrunk dick would do it for half the population.

      (I suspect the baldness is not a direct link, it’s that bald men tend to be more overweight & have more risk of heart disease, but inresting)

    • come on, reef, pollution, climate change … what’s wrong with you … we need to act on priorities …

      there is a scary virus that may kill few hundred chronically sick 85 year olds … we should forget about the future and try to “save” these lives so that they can live in suffering another 6 months or a year
      who cares about kid’s future we need to make sure oldies survive another year at all costs

      in Bergamo fatality rate among 80-90 year olds was 3.5% … imagine that if you are 85 you have 95% of survival even if you get infected … scary .. (chance of a 85 year old surviving for another year without getting infected is 92%)

      • BigDuke6MEMBER

        If you look at the comments in the UK Telegraph it’s a huge contrast to here. Everyone is up in arms about their civil liberties despite the so so bad virus thinning out their nursing homes. In Australia- despite more draconian measures than China is inflicting on HK – we lap it up. the elites will be noticing how easy it was to scare the Aussies

        • Telegraph readers are not a very good representation of the British public.

          Right wing, libertarian, Thatcherite true believers who must be absolutely fuming that their beloved Tories have placed most of the UK population on the state teet until October.

  4. if the God told people: I lost a bet so I have to get an epidemic onto the Earth, what would you prefer, people would ultimately choose covid19:
    – not very deadly (IFR somewhere between 0.01% and 0.3% depending how old and sick the general population is)
    – kills almost excursively very old and very sick
    – spares kids almost completely
    – makes 80% of population symptom free so there are always enough people to provide necessities and care for sick
    – helps with other problems on Earth (overpopulation due to life extension, resource depletion, dependency ratios, inequality, runaway health care costs, .. )

    I think this virus may be man-made by someone who wanted good to the humanity …

    Than humanity divorced from reality, tabooed from the death, afraid of their own shadow, … brainwashed and mislead by media reacted in such a stupid way destroying all the nice features of the virus and creating an utter mess that is going to hurt (deaths, sickness, poverty, mental health issues, trauma, …) much much more than covid itself

    Imagine telling something like this to WWII survivors in Europe, or people who live in Africa or many parts of Asia, South America, … at the present, telling them that there is going to be a cataclysm, an epidemic that destroys the civilization because it kills 0.1% or 0.01% of people, almost exclusively those very old and very sick and leaving 80% without any symptoms

    • Imagine the virus only infected people who felt compelled to make the same point over and over and over again, even after most others stopped taking notice of them. Now THAT would be doing humanity a favour.

      • one day after it becomes obvious that despite all the destruction caused by measures aimed to “save” lives inevitable did happen, you will change your mind … but none expects you to admit that even than …

        • Stewie GriffinMEMBER

          The purpose of disagreeable people [puts hand up] is to stop the herd from running over the cliff altogether.

          The only reason to support the Quarantine is purely for the harm it is doing to our ‘export citizenship’ economic model.

        • Come The Reaper

          X has been infected 1 of lingering debilitating symptoms is to constantly repeat one’s self
          Parroting if I may rediual Brain damage check it out

          • I know I will catch it sooner or later and the sooner it happens I have higher chance of surviving and not getting badly sick
            I’m still too far from the age where delaying getting infected extends my life by that much

            Keep in mind, in Bergamo even among those over 80 only 3.5% died from covid after catching it and 60% had no symptoms or had very mild symptoms. This is not Ebola where fatality rate is 80%

          • call me ArtieMEMBER

            Hi bcn. If you mean a little image next to your moniker, then yes, you need to set up what is called a gravitar, an image globally associated with a particular email address. From then on, any website that uses gravitars will display yours (assuming you use the same email address to subscribe). I suggest considering the implications of image-recognising search before doing this. Your activities on many different forums can be linked via the image, even if your screen name is different and your email address is hidden.

            If you mean how to add an image in a comment you make, you need to put the image somewhere where it is accessible to the web (i.e. a free image hosting service) then add the old-fashioned HTML tag for an image. You can easily find that HTML code by searching google for “html img src”

    • Yeah honestly we were on a very destructive path already. It would be silly of me to rather wish we went down this path of stopping our never ending search for “growth” of this piece of paper we made and printed called “money”.. WITHOUT needing a pandemic that kills people.

      i mean imagine telling newly landed aliens that we printed something completely man-made like money and then destroyed our planet in our efforts to get more of this stuff.
      Imagine the alien asking “why didnt u just print more when u needed it?”
      And we said “we did. We just gave it to the people who already had lots of this stuff”

      • Yes because gold mining has always be so environmentally friendly and socially beneficial E.g. one would think the boom and bust posse would be quite happy with expectations ….it is a doomsday cult BTW …

        • DominicMEMBER

          Skip, your anti-gold rants are tiresome. If there were no demand for it, no one would mine it. What’s so difficult to understand?

          You don’t like it, others do. Just get on with your own life and don’t worry about what others are doing. Don’t become another drsmithy, who gets off on instructing others how they should live their lives, and are bereft of humor in the process (the latter being utterly sinful, I should add. I mean there is nothing so odious as people who take themselves that seriously).

          • Your special plea filled with emotive gestures are noted.

            Contrary to that I do understand the history of this metal back to its earliest use and how some imbued it with special powers, later on its historical ramifications in trade and its larger social outcomes.

            You might find it interesting that byzantine gold coinage lost its currency status once the Romans retreated and was used as plain gold stock too be melted down as base material in the adornment of weaponry et al during the so called dark ages. You see your lot is always several events post what underlies outcomes yet constantly refer to one object being behind all outcomes.

            I find Agnotology to be more critical than your complaint.

          • Yeah, but they haven’t gone crazy like Air Cooled 911s. People are scared of them due to high repair costs and fuel consumption, plus a lot were auto. They are a cool car, but I think 944s will become the next collector Porsche to have. They are fun, but very slow in non turbo config. The later 3ltr NA ones might be a better car to buy.

            Good thing about those 928s is they don’t really rust thanks to Galvanised bodies. Nice engineering in them for late 70s.

      • migtronixMEMBER

        Narrator: it was a humanoid alien species that landed, which though advanced had until then remained innocent to the concept of abstract gains. Divyas haphazard recounting of events on that long forgotten planet set off a chain of intergalactic destruction which is now nearing the edge of the universe…

    • I urge you to stop or at least moderate your posting about Covid 19 on MB. Please.

      I no longer read your posts because they’re tediously similar…. just scroll past them. Others no doubt do the same.

    • So glad you know all the long term effects of COVID
      https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/06/covid-19-coronavirus-longterm-symptoms-months/612679/

      https://www.the-scientist.com/news-opinion/dozens-more-cases-reported-of-neurological-problems-in-covid-19-67717
      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Encephalitis_lethargica
      The disease attacks the brain, leaving some victims in a statue-like condition, speechless and motionless.[4] Between 1915 and 1926,[5] an epidemic of encephalitis lethargica spread around the world. Nearly five million people were affected, a third of whom died in the acute stages. Many of those who survived never returned to their pre-morbid vigour.

      #justtheflubro

      • not just a flu – just a common cold
        dozen cases of longer term mild issues relative to millions of cases … seriously – almost all viral infections have some of all or even more long term effects

        BTW. My mother in law died at 65 from an encephalitis caused by reactivation of herpes simplex she carried in her body probably since early childhood. Do we put country in a lockdown and destroy economy trying to eradicate herpes simplex?

        • When you describe a massive spike of encephalitis lethargica as “mild issues” that’s when you know you aren’t willing to look at facts.
          Have you factored in the costs of treating this as well as all the chronic issues into your analysis? No because you or nobody else knows what these costs will be
          You are wedded to your view and that’s fine. Thankfully people with a medical degree are dealing with the response here.

          • Bear Bullwinkle

            doctorX’s analysis is that whatever the prevailing view in any field is, it is wrong. Then he goes back from there.

            Not satisfied with fighting an endless war against the conventional wisdom on COVID-19, he is now turning the idea that the lives of the old and sick have value on its head.

          • I’m just starting from a position that nothing about corona virus eradication cannot be done, virus will stay with humans forever just like common cold … so as many people will be infected and die regardless of what we do. Everything we see so far point out that to be the most likely scenario – safe and effective vaccine is looking for and more unlikely.

            So the only question we should be discussing is whether we destroy more or less trying to fight inevitable outcome. Sure we can do all of this trying to delay the inevitable by few months but at what cost. Is it fair to our leave our kids world in economic ruins and extreme inequality to delay people being infected by few months.

            Ultimately it comes down to the politicians who don’t believe they can do much but just want their hands to look clean and be able to say I did everything we could while their mates enjoy unprecedented transfer of wealth.

            What I don’t get is a position of people like you? What you are arguing to achieve by supporting these meaningless measures? Do you really believe that we should delay this at all costs hoping for a miracle in a year or two? do you really thing that destroying economy will produce a system that is more fair and just…. by central banks giving free money to the rich?

            By doing what you support we’ll end-up in an economic depression with far worse inequality than we have now. House prices will fall but most of young people will not have enough for food.

            one cannot be pro-covid or anti-covid – it’s what it is.
            I just want it over as quickly as possible with the least damage possible – so basically I want flattening the curve approach and many proposed early

          • Your fear is skewing everything DrX, strange that before covid your concerns were missing.

    • Bear Bullwinkle

      “I think this virus may be man-made by someone who wanted good to the humanity …”

      Just like this other program to kill off the sick by noted humanitarians: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aktion_T4

      You’re really something else Doc. You’re actually pro-coronavirus. I really hope you’re a troll. Otherwise you’re sicker than any coronavirus victim.

    • Once again your post is contradictory. How is it that a death rate of .01 to .3% can “help” cure overpopulation, resource depletion, etc.

      The evidence that virus is serious enough that lockdown or no lockdown, the fear of it is enough to cause universal economic collapse, is pretty clear now.

      The bottom line is that the virus is both a catalyst and a symptom of a ludicrous and severely stressed financial system that has been teetering on the edge of collapse for decades, only propped up by corruption, greed – and money printing.

      What the virus actually reveals is that the emperor has no clothes

      • not contradictory
        I said it will help solve the problem, not solve them
        Mortality rate among those who are very old and very sick and who consume the most of resources (needed to keep them alive) and have the highest concentration of wealth locked unproductive assets is higher (around 3-4% among those in 80s) so virus would help definitely

        You are right about the “ludicrous and severely stressed financial system that has been teetering on the edge of collapse for decades, only propped up by corruption, greed – and money printing.”
        But what we see happening at the moment as response to covid is saving the same ludicrous and severely stressed financial system that has been teetering on the edge of collapse for decades, by more corruption, greed – and money printing while the small bits of real economy are collapsing because of the measures. Tourism, recreation, art, … may look like unimportant but they were rare sectors that were actually providing people with something tangible that was making people’s lives better or more tolerable.
        What we see now is support to finance and other BS sectors that make people’s lives miserable.
        Twice as many people lost jobs in health care sector since March than in finance

        • @drX You hold up tourism, recreation and the arts as ‘rare sectors’ that were making people’s lives better.

          While art has been around since our inception, tourism as an industry must be one of the most pointless and ecologically damaging; all those billions of wealthy, idle nouveau riche and spoilt retirees with nothing to spend their ill-gotten wealth on but to endlessly flit around the most remote parts of the world in jumbo jets and floating hotels, to gawp, trample on, and despoil what little natural beauty is left, and a large chunk of future generations resources – which there remains no possible excuse for being in ignorance of.

          While art has been around forever, like everything in the financial age, as a professional muso for 30 years, I can tell you that the ‘professional’ side of things soon destroyed any semblance of creativity and became an exploitative, ritualized and boring job which existed to entertain yet more bored and privileged patrons who slept through the program and swanned around with champagne at half time so they could prove they were cultured. Not much different from tourism really – just there so the bored hoypoloy can boast to their friends of being ‘cultured’.

          The last ten years of my playing life I longed to do something productive and meaningful, but was caught in the $$ trap, like so many of today’s ‘artists’ and tourism operators.

          As for ‘recreation’ – since when did we need a whole industry to tell us how to enjoy nature and each other. Ditto art – commodified like everything else.

          There is hardly a job that is meaningful or productive in todays sorry world in which every spontaneous and creative impulse has been corrupted into a sordid for-profit ‘industry’.

          • high end tourism you are talking about is just a tiny fraction of tourism industry that employs very few people
            Tourism is what keeps most of regional Australia out of poverty, provides jobs to those most unfortunate and help ordinary Australians to get a break before returning to a treadmill of borrowing working to pay debts off

            If anything these days gives ordinary people a break that’s tourism.

            I’m not saying we should open borders for rich Chinese tourist, what I’m saying is that we need tourism to get most of Australians survive this period. We could keep tourism going even without a single rich foreign tourists.
            Keeping QLD border closed while there were 10 cases daily in quarantine was just ridiculous.

        • And btw, Dx, just about all the mansions that oversee my modest little house in Whitfield are owned by doctors and dentists and specialists (lawyers, builders, business people too, so I am not generalizing) that have been making out like bandits ever since I got my Medicare card in 1977. I studied post grad for 10 years so don’t give me it was tough. Never liked the inequality that I saw in the wages that doctors took home compared to mine. But I never had the ama working for me, eh?

          • AMA is evil and its illegal practices have cost countless lives and caused incalculable financial and physical suffering.

          • Crickets from Doctor x. Earnings a bit down, perhaps that’s the distress we see every day?

      • No, Charlie, go and rethink. This virus is very contagious and deadly to many. I am economist and I will not put a value on a human life. Go for it. Most of the covid victims die alone, without family around. Not for me.

        The numbers coming into QLD are frightening. Already NSW has cases. I do not want to be exposed to this. Go cuddle Dx if you’re feeling solidarity brother

        • I realise it is deadly, but you still give me no alternative scenario which will not be deadly even if you forget about the economic factors. So how do we solve this so that it is not deadly? Please anyone?

          • Given that it’s a bit more than ‘hey it might just kill you bro,’ then going back to the days of just accepting the risk of a cold, I reckon is over. Business wants back to normal. Covid has changed everything you ever thought was going to happen. /ThisIsNew

      • drsmithyMEMBER

        There probably isn’t one now.

        If Victoria hadn’t fvcked it up, we might have had a chance.

        It’s amazing – well, I guess not, really – the opportunity we were gifted to eliminate it locally, and pretty much every time there was an important decision to be made achieving that goal, we made the wrong one (most recently QLD re-opening).

        • A chance at what, isolating ourselves until when? How would we open up state borders let alone international borders? There was never a chance.

          • drsmithyMEMBER

            We were probably within sight of eliminating it locally (within the country).

            But that’s mostly been thrown away. Victoria’s rampant, from there it’s almost certainly spread to NSW, and shortly it will go from there to QLD. QLD might have remained safe if the borders had stayed closed for another week or two to watch Victoria and NSW unfold.

            Once eliminated within the country it’s a relatively simple job of keeping it out by (properly) quarantining international arrivals and cutting off the vectors that might re-introduce it. Of course, that’s relatively easy in theory rather than with the likes of Broader Farce handling national security.

            That’s short term. Medium- to long-term the strategy would need to be re-evaluated as more was learned, like how easily and soon can it be reliably detected (ie: can quarantine be cut down or eliminated), does a vaccine or effective treatment appear, etc.

    • Yeah, if this happened in the pre-modern world, no-one would even have noticed. It would be like … Yeah, a few more people than usual died of pneumonia this year.

    • Doctorx. I’m with you fella. You are thinking logical and practical. It’s not what people want to hear. People want hope not truth. Don’t let the mob bring you down.

      • that’s what he was talking about but he went out and bought world’s supply of remdesivir not worlds supply of bleach

        start looking at what he (and people around him) does not what he says

        • Derrick BoganMEMBER

          “start looking at what he (and people around him) does not what he says”

          That’s such a ridiculous take. He’s digging around looking for the golden bullet that might save his pathetic chances of winning an election in November, not dissimilar to him begging CureVac to buy their Covid lead. It is 100% self-interest about The Bleach King, nothing about anyone else. He’s supposed to be and act like the POTUS; since when did that position descend into “I can say what I want, when I want, to who I want, and expect no ramifications”? I don’t know whether him saying this rubbish or the people who try and defend it are worse.

        • The Traveling Wilbur

          You mean like announcing during interviews that he personally saw to it that ‘the wall’ had bars in it coated in *black* coloured surfaces as they retain heat and would be harder to touch and therefore climb over? That sort of ‘do’ you mean?

          OK. Will do.

          Oh. Remind me. Was that before or after he personally organised for Homeland security to buy up the world’s entire supply of gloves? I forget.

          Apologies to Steven Colbert.

          • All the gloves, TTW? I love the man, disrupted everything and exposed all the bullshit far better than his predecessors.

    • Doesn’t remdesivir have some pretty nasty side effects? I’m still thinking that hydroxychloroquine and dexamethasone are the best treatments.

      • Yep, and dexamethasone is only indicated when you’re proper @$#ed – the current aus guidelines are : “Consider using dexamethasone 6 mg daily intravenous or oral for up to 10 days in adults with COVID-19 who are receiving oxygen (including mechanically ventilated patients).”

      • There’s no evidence, except Trumpian evidence, that hydroxychloroquine is useful.

        “The Taskforce notes the release of the press statement from the chief investigators of the RECOVERY trial on 5 June that found no clinical benefit from using hydroxychloroquine in hospitalised patients with COVID-19. On 4 July WHO announced the hydroxychloroquine treatment arm of the Solidarity Trial had been discontinued with immediate effect. We await publication of the results of both trials.”

  5. migtronixMEMBER

    So dumb-dumb who now has no-one left but the right wing crazies now wants to defund University on top of getting rid of Obamacare and turning on WHO.

    And this guy picks a fight with China that provides all those things for free, what a jerk. Go back and sit the SATs you giant life fake….

    • GunnamattaMEMBER

      He is a brilliant life fake, and an almost demented one up man. He will always go one up to ‘win’ – winning in his mind only ever being a reflection of how he ‘feels’ about an outcome [which sort of makes him a perfect parallel of the woke world – who also only care about how people ‘feel’ – and they have both largely let go of any sort of rationale whatsoever]. I reckon he only really opted for a Presidential run after being so openly disparaged at one of the Obama social events.

      And the beauty of him is that every time he goes one up – from fake school results, to fake property developing, to years of tax avoidance and land speculation, to years of casino running, to his ‘brand’ then onto reality TV, and into politics he has made that field a fairly transparent plaything of his fakeness, and rendered that field with a lasting vision of his fakeness such that the fakeness can never really be let go of in the eyes of anyone contemplating that field of human endeavour. It has a certain beauty, pitched out there somewhere between surrealism and absurdity and the wonder of possibility, and navigable between hilarity and sheer terror, all opened to the consciousness of humanity by the maggot like persistence of Donald’s febrile sense of self and his vision of one upmanship.

      If you think of Western democratic tradition – which is often not all that democratic and sometimes not all that western – and the intellectual mumbo jumbo around ‘capitalism’ and ‘law’ and ‘freedom of the individual’ and ‘rights’ when for a large part it is primarily about the property rights of the exceptionally affluent, with ‘wealth’ all too often generated not by application of endeavour or intellect, but by straight out corruption and rapine with the prospect of violence never that far away. It had become somewhat self sure and smug, and it sort of knew it was ‘the’ best that could be had, despite the palpable fact it had let go of any sense of making itself the best that could be had for the entire societies it has used as human shields for the protection of wealth for a small subsection of those societies for more than a generation. It spoke with gravitas, and pontificated about what was best for you and I and for the whole of humanity, when what pontificates most about is its access to wealth it assumed is its, with laws, institutions and beliefs all humming and nodding in time with the beat.

      And the maggot like persistence of Donald’s one upmanship is smashing that sense of entitled surety, having exposed every step of the way – from the wealth generation, to the media and marketing, to the treatment of people, and onto the political baublisation of the worlds most powerful executive decisionmaking role – leaving fractures in the facade of politics and wealth and information dissemination which will take a generation to repair, and may never ever be reconstructed. We will almost certainly never see anything like him again, but we will never ever see anything ‘elite’ in the same way again – he has trashed the credibility of everything we were so sure was ‘best’ – and if his exit from the stage follows a closing scene of vituperation between two septuagenarian white men, who like touching women and like corruption, there is still the possibility he may set off one more lasting piece of conceptual vandalism sufficient to clear the site for something new.

      Part of me would actually thank him.

      He has one upped an age, and exposed it too as a fraud.

      • Stewie GriffinMEMBER

        He is a brilliant life fake, and an almost demented one up man. He will always go one up to ‘win’ – winning in his mind only ever being a reflection of how he ‘feels’ … a perfect parallel of the woke world – who also only care about how people ‘feel’

        Awesome comments there Gunna – so true. Trump is the vainest, egotistical, self serving individual to ever take the Presidency, for the shallowest of reasons (being mocked at Obama’s 2011 White House correspondence dinner). But for those arrogant jabs, like you say the whole elite edifice and connection between financial wealth generation, media and marketing, manipulation and treatment of people and political influence would never have been as exposed as it has been.

        https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HHckZCxdRkA

        But Obama is responsible for the creation of Trump in more than just a few school yard taunts to enrage a puffed up school yard bully. Obama’s bail out of Wall Street when he stood before a room full of bankers and said “I am all that stands between you and pitchforks.” Gave rise to the righteous indignation and outrage in the public over the inequality that it brought about, which he would later manipulative harness for his own elevation.

        Before Trump was ever elected I was saying that I hoped he would be, because he was the most likely to end up breaking the status quo:

        Frankly I would be prepared to hold my nose and vote for Trump simply because he is more likely to break the direction the establishment have charted for the US and by implication, the world (of course if it came down to Trump or Bernie Sanders, Bernie would be my preference hands down – there’d be no nose holding)

        https://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2016/03/trump-crushes-republicans/#comment-2548269

        And so he has, as you noted in your comments above

        he has trashed the credibility of everything we were so sure was ‘best’ …leaving fractures in the facade of politics and wealth and information dissemination which will take a generation to repair, and may never ever be reconstructed.

        “He has one upped an age, and exposed it too as a fraud.”

        If nothing else, that will be his main enduring legacy.

      • PalimpsestMEMBER

        @Gunna. Thank you for that quality bit of thought provoking writing. That doesn’t mean I like your conclusions, especially because there’s a fair amount of truth there.

        • GunnamattaMEMBER

          You are welcome old coq, ‘Twas but a moments cogitation on Mig’s comment with the thought coming to me as I prepared two coffees and some breakfast. I can assure you I too am somewhat appalled by the implications, and would gladly read or hear of any narrative which can resonate, and would love to find something in the narrative offering more optimism.

      • spot on. the strongest negative reaction to Trump has been around how he as a person (or Twitterer?) makes people feel.
        Not a reaction to his policies which have universally been a disaster, but to the individual.
        If people focused on the BS foundations of his policies during the campaign rather than Trump himself – which then turned it into a tribal identity thing – he wouldn’t have been elected.

      • Yes, Gunna, some admiration for the way he has gone about it. Exposed far more that we got in the previous two Ps.

        It is instructive now that they don’t hide what is really happening. They know that the majority of the populace aren’t paying attention. Moreover, everyone in big business and media are in on it, so when we plebs are forced to look, we turn an indifferent eye as we all know, or fw should, that our ‘government’ has never worked for the working person ever.

      • DominicMEMBER

        People like to think of the successful as ‘smart’ but it’s actually the ‘driven’ that tend to succeed.

        Goodness knows whether Trump’s actually that wealthy or successful but the bloody-mindedness is impressive (or startling).

        • Bear Bullwinkle

          No it isn’t.

          “In China, patients do pay their medical bills. Although public hospitals are owned by the state, only a small share of their costs are covered directly by taxes. The remainder comes from insurance payments and the patients themselves.

          Similar to Canada, almost the entire Chinese population is covered by state-run health insurance. But since the coverage doesn’t extend to many essential services, people still have to pay a large share of medical expenses from their own pockets.”

          It’s fine, you assumed, threw the dice, they came out wrong.

          • migtronixMEMBER

            How is that not basically like Australia? I ALWAYS pay for a GP. I know because I’ve had to do it twice in the past 6 years…

            And then there’s bloody medicare levy

          • Bear Bullwinkle

            It’s not the same as Australia because we don’t pay 29% of our medical bills when we go to a public hospital, and it isn’t mandatory to have health insurance in Australia.

            The Medicare levy is just extra income tax. It’s called that for purposes of propaganda, but the money goes into general revenue.

            I think you’d agree it’s a waste of time to debate someone who was guessing, turned out to be wrong, and is now going to debate out of stubbornness.

          • migtronixMEMBER

            Incorrect. The medicare levy is not a tax if you have private insurance so I don’t care where it lands its where its levied that’s salient.

            I think you’d agree its a waste of time trying nitpick when the very article you posted said for the vast majority in the big cities they pay like $10 and get world class treatment. We don’t get that – I’d pay $10 instead of waiting 4 hours at ED and walking away.

          • Bear Bullwinkle

            You’re thinking of the Medicare Levy Surcharge. The regular levy is unavoidable.

            I suppose you don’t know that different countries have different wages and different prices either. Sad.

          • migtronixMEMBER

            Yes I do know hence why I used basically and not exactly in my characterisation.

            I wasn’t aware of how much like our system it is and expected it was more like Cuba, so I thank you for the link.

          • No universal pension either and unions are illegal beside on state owned one.

            So in that sense worse than USA

  6. Rorke's DriftMEMBER

    Last Sunday I wrote a post that disappeared into the ether. Turned out it had someone’s name in it who can’t be mentioned.

    So my dilemma was this. I was sitting in the clubhouse of my Golf Club having some lunch and reading the MB comments section on my phone, when I noticed the guy sitting at the table next to me was P.h.i.l.i.p. L.o.w.e. I hadn’t known the RBA Governor was a club member.

    Well this is awkward. Could he have seen me reading MB comments? I have a social standing in my club, you people could give me a bad name! What to do? This is an anonymous forum I thought, surely he doesn’t know that I’m one of the people here posting that the housing market is going to crash, does he? We don’t allow the riff raff in as members. What if all his mates at my club start to ostracise me, for not believing bushlitt economic narratives, for thinking that central banks should be abolished. Maybe reading MB comments could be a social faux pas in certain circles.

    I was briefly frozen, with my finger hovering over the phone ready to type. What to do, log out quickly and hope he hasn’t noticed what I was reading. Nah, bugger it. I started typing. If he doesn’t like my economic thoughts, he can lean over and introduce himself and I’d be happy to provide him some guidance.

    A lengthy post was drafted.
    I hit submit.
    The post disappeared, vaporised.
    Hmmm. Powerful bloke.

  7. Applied for and missed out on a rental in Newtown 2042 last weekend (2 bedder, house, nice light and space which seems to be a rare commodity at that price point in the area, 650$). After application had a chat with the agent to get a feel for my chances, he had 20 offers and said a couple of people were offering $50 more a week than the advertised rate – presumably they got it.Bit of a reality check for me – demand is there for quality rentals.

    • The Traveling Wilbur

      Speaking of reality checks: alternatively, the agent could be a lying sack of bs who made all that up and let the place to one of their mates. Below advertised price.

      But your faith in humanity is noted, and admirable.

    • Don’t worry fx, even in a falling market there are a few that pay overs, the weight of numbers is still on your side.

      FWIW when I apply for a rental I get my application in super fast and i never offer additional money but I sell myself hard as a good tenant. If you are also a good tenant, emphasise how stable your job is, tell them you work long hours and will have a cleaner in every week. (In my case that’s true but they’ll never know if it isn’t – just get one for inspections). Etc.

      Agents are lazy and will take the first tenant who pays the correct amount and will be low maintenance for them in future. They don’t want to go through 20 applications. And they are getting a small percentage only so a few dollars extra rent is worth less to them than a low-hassle tenant going forward.

      Apologies if this is stating the obvious to you 😉

      • @Arrow yeah! I see it as a numbers game
        @Gramus totally agree ‘location, locaiotn, location’
        @DrSmithy this particular one was more like a loan application, see the 1form website to get an idea; expecting payslips, rate notices, bankstatements, last 10 years of employment history etc

  8. SweeperMEMBER

    After last nights dust up re. penalties for people who refuse corona tests, I’ve concluded neoliberalism doesn’t just wreck society it also wrecks people’s ability to think logically.

    • migtronixMEMBER

      Does it? So you think the virus cares whether a legal impost is imposed and rendered??? Idiot.

      If you want compliance jus say so and demand it, don’t pretend you’re giving people an hobsons choice…

      • SweeperMEMBER

        wow. why is such a reasonable and common sense (and consistent with every other law) proposal – that people be penalised if they refuse to be tested – met with such a hysterical reaction?
        That to me.. it just seems obvious, I didn’t even think there would be debate. Just discussion on how heavy the penalty should be (Gunnamatta had a good idea re. this).
        Instead you get met with this hysterical over the top reaction.

        • The Traveling Wilbur

          Well, as you (finally) asked that specific question, the answer is the same as to the question: why do many people think a poll tax (e.g. UK) is unfair?

          Because it’s an impost on you. Just for having the ability to breathe. And for no other reason.

          That’s the answer to your question. You may not like it / think it’s a correct point of view others should hold, but it is the answer.

          Analogy time: many of the same people would NOT have a problem if you had to be tested to access school / GP / hospital etc. services. Some would still have a problem of course.

          But this bit about – tested compulsorily – just because you happen to be breathing in a certain geographic location and might want to go for a social distant walk or run… that sounds disproportionate on its face.

          What could possibly go wrong with acceding to those kind of policies, eh?

        • The Traveling Wilbur

          Personal view point: when I see Dan Andr3ws wearing a mask at press-conferences then I might agree it’s time for such steps. In the meantime… he can hire some proper security needed for policing actual potential carriers that must be needed for such a serious problem that such steps much warranted to address, and he can also f off. In the meantime.

        • migtronixMEMBER

          Because you attempted to invoke reason as the motivation when it isn’t, its compliance. Reason would dictate no mandated compliance is required, so you decide to dress mutton up as lamb.

          The virus doesn’t care about the penalty and the test you want to impose is far from even 50% effective. Should we fine the makers of the tests until they get it right?

          Sweeper morals: the richer you are the easier it should be to break compliance, but neoliberalism is bad.

          • A fine was one option. After the round table discussion I think it was agreed that time as a guest of the state and public shaming were preferable. I agree with that. And that’s where I thought the discussion would head. Not… no testing shouldn’t be compulsory because my 4 yr old will throw a temper tantrum… North Korea!… freedom!… police state!.

          • migtronixMEMBER

            Fair enough, still don’t see how reasoning/logic comes into it – seems more political compromise which is more akin to polemics and rhetoric.

            Indeed a review of history will readily illustrate that when things get bad enough the harshest of quarantine measures are always resorted to without exception for rank or coin…

    • DominicMEMBER

      Sweep, seriously? Neoliberalism did it!

      FFS, that’s, like the Democraps whining incessantly that all the world’s problems are Putin’s fault.

  9. Reus's largeMEMBER

    Did anyone have the misfortune to see the spruik piece on Ch7 last night, head line was Mt Druitt (yes they are actually spruiking Mt Druitt) to be next million $$ property mecca, but then the partial truth came out, actually two houses on 1000m3 each situated next to each other sold for a combined 1.57 million to a developer because they have rezoned the area to allow higher rise developments. So in reality a very far cry from a house being worth 1 mil based on someone wanting to buy that house to live in.

    Things must be very bad out there if this is the best good news RE story they can find.

    • The System is desperate. I wonder which bank was behind that piece. Was it the one with 50% IO loans many of which are to investors in places like Mt Druitt?… hello Westpac.

  10. Rorke's DriftMEMBER

    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-imf-world-bank/imfs-chief-economist-urges-equity-like-governments-support-for-virus-hit-firms-idUSKBN24B098
    Article above from the WE links. The IMF thinks govt support should start to look more like equity. Does anyone else see a long term trend in this of increasing system control.
    Corona and follow on pandemics damages sme and large private business world wide, govt takes equity positions in the medium to larger ones. The population are now mostly working either directly for govt, govt controlled entities, or for public listed corporates. Little private business remains at scale, only small businesses that survive or pop up which have low economic power. Could the Corona virus hype and heavy handed response have some other objectives other than the purity of concern for peoples health.

    • The usual method to take state control is to tax them to death and then take them over when they fail. The idea you pointed out would seem to be fascism…..i.e. joint corporate and government financial repression.

      Credits will continue to be emitted by the usual suspects until all financial obligations are null and void…..some are already being let slide. #ZROZ to 200 at least.

      https://twitter.com/RaoulGMI/status/1281581686401183745

      I am seriously thinking of selling my CGS 2033’s in the next panic, but holding my 2026’s and 2027’s. I don’t think that they can keep this train wreck out of the table drain into 2030.

    • While I don’t buy into a lot of the ‘corona is a cover for an elite power grab conspiracy theories’ that are out there, when you actually take some time to think about a lot of thegov responses around the world I can see why some people do believe it in their countries. I may be delusional but I’d like to think I understand my society enough to know what’s going on. I think were corrupt, greedy, stupid and incompetent but not heading towards a carefully planned gov takeover

    • DominicMEMBER

      Ding ding ding! Cigar in the mail.

      The Gubmint will eventually control everything, either directly or indirectly (but still tell you with a straight face that we live in a Capitalist society). This is the inevitable consequence of endless bailouts i.e. nothing comes without cost.

      In the end it’ll all fail and future generations will get to start afresh, but in the meanwhile we have the slow march into tyranny to look forward to.

  11. Ulrike Meinhof

    Can a post labeled “disgusting” have purpose?
    Interesting question isn’t it, kind of goes down the road of, does art have a purpose?
    For me language is a written art form.
    The images I labour to create have purpose, the juxtaposition of images is intentional and creates the big picture. My social groupings form a metaphorical mirror yet many struggle to accept what they see in the mirror.
    Is the mirror disgusting because it accurately reflects our image or because it forces us to view that which we have intentionally shoved behind us?

  12. Re posting blogs
    I don’t know what they’ve done
    It doesn’t post then it’s easy to post twice
    I never have any abuse or profanity
    It’s a nightmare us that try and write an informative email
    Then they let non members post blogs of abuse
    Think they need to look at their posting model

  13. Thanks all for the words of encouragement, support, warning and advice!

    We didn’t win the auction, it went past what we considered fair value (not lowball) and then it went a bit further. So feeling good, no regrets, time is on our side in the current market. Worth noting that despite being a high quality house with very strong interest during inspections, there were still only a couple of credible bidders. So the market continues to feel balanced but no more than that, here in Cbr.

      • boomengineeringMEMBER

        Arrow2,
        Thank Gd for that. Now can tell our situation. Every time we missed out on one the next one would always be better and when we missed out on the next we always drove past Short St for some unknown reason maybe cause we put an offer on 5 (I backed out due to perceived council problems) then 9. . Walking past I would say that looks like a good one but the missus would say that’ll never come on the market. Our house came on the market on Sat and Mon I DIDN’T LOWBALL as it was fair value. Tues got a call from the agent who said thew vendor had second thoughts ( asking price too low) so told him to meet me in the Aussie HL office. When there said give me the deposit cheque back then. He had to slip out ( like the carsales vid someone posted) but was soon back re accepting.

      • The Traveling Wilbur

        PS should be the last to go. Gotta have some peoples spending some money somewhere.

        Biggest impost so far is pay freezes – on yet to be applied pay increases. So in effect, deferral of pay increases agreed but only now (this fy) applicable.

        Some places are doing no new hires and continuing with all other recruitment as normal. Some are all recuritment as normal.

          • The Traveling Wilbur

            Just remember, if you do look back on this later, the ideas and events therein relative to that future now, may be closer than they appear.

          • The Traveling Wilbur

            What’s really going to bake your noodle later on is, would you still have broken the glass if I hadn’t said anything.

        • I’m in private enterprise in Canberra. Full anti-Covid measures continue, so staff amenities closed, travel restrictions, physical distancing, plus no pay increases, no bonuses and a hiring freeze except for exceptional circumstances. Meanwhile, the work continues at a furious pace.

          The combination of huge work loads, high stress and no bonus is…odd. It’s not a happy time.

          • Strange days indeed LSW. I am belatedly reading The Black Swan and in retrospect, we should have predicted that ;-p

          • MountainGuinMEMBER

            In Canberra APS. Many of us doing 6 to 7 days a week and long hours,to keep up BAU, extra client service and host of new programs. We are only just keeping up as no one has burnt out yet and no one really wants holidays in winter lockdowns but are waiting for spring.
            Obviously not sustainable but very conscious that cuts will come and being known as an area that delivers may help avoid the axe.
            Spring will be interesting as alot of people have long holiday plans but I suspect that’s when the really bad economic conditions will really start to degrade.

      • Operating budgets will be cut. But staff cutbacks I would say very unlikely. Hiring freezes and pay freezes maybe. Maybe a bit less for consultants.

        • Friends in the APS said agencies are undertaking “establishment reviews” which usually means culling unfilled positions then may look at the low hanging fruit. PS are on a pay freeze as well. Also understand there’s a massive Australian industry drive which usually means we wind up paying ten times the cost for a widget than what you’d pay on the open market. Given 67% of the APS positions are outside of Canberra, the Government wants as many people spending money as possible.

          • boomengineeringMEMBER

            Acquaintance at dog beach this morn just changed his job, didn’t quite get what it was but it involved algorithms for the Defense Forces . He was pretty smug at the thought of all that extra money to be thrown at our defense. So anyone needing a job may be wise to consider it.

    • Well played A2 – we missed a place in a similar manner. Ended buying 9mths later a few blocks away for $90k cheaper and a far better place. At the time we nearly gave up and thought there were always going to be greater fools – I hope the same thing happens to you (and a bit quicker than 9mths).

        • The house i wanted to buy last year is on market now again, who ever bought it seems couldn’t digest the price they paid. Was happy to pay $595k they paid $640k. Now asking $640k after 15 months.. time will turn around Arrow 😄

          • darklydrawlMEMBER

            Ouch. With the transaction costs alone that has got to be a haircut, assuming they actually get the listed sale price.

    • Sorry to hear that mate, but you’ll find something eventually with patience. Meanwhile, the MB team is, as the Americans say, rooting for you. 🙂

    • Unlike Boom I don’t think the next house is always better. I mean my family likes my house more than the others. But sometimes I regret not buying 1 of the 2 places in St Andrews.

      10 School Road, St Andrews, Vic 3761 https://www.realestate.com.au/sold/property-house-vic-st+andrews-129804734

      I was stubborn and wouldn’t go above $913k I think from memory, other party was struggling to get finance across the line. Took 2 weeks before I knew we missed out. Hindsight I could have/should have offered more for it.

      This place was a little too “new” for me. But the garage was perfect..

      70 Caledonia Street, St Andrews, Vic 3761 https://www.realestate.com.au/sold/property-house-vic-st+andrews-129548242

      Funny I was worried about the commute to work and school (if we had kids). Now with Covid-19 who knows if telecommute will be the norm and it wouldn’t have mattered? My current place has dual car port, but old Datsun’s need to be kept dry and out of the elements. I want to build a garage but need a job to finance it.

      Anyway I kind of wish I’d bought those 2. I compromised and bought near Warrandyte South in the end and although I love it. I yearn for an acre or 2 of space.

      Still we can only go on the information in front of us at the time. And with a child on the way within the next couple of weeks. We are in a good spot for schools.

      Curious if you have a link to this house you missed out on? Curious about the build quality etc.?

      • Hi Gav. Did you get an email?

        This wasn’t a “fall in love” house, so we don’t mind missing out. It was good though. Build quality was just ok – for Canberra, where standards are very poor – but isn’t going to impress a mud brick aficionado! 😁.

        • I got the email. Link is broke. But I think I can find it.

          Edit I found it, says it last sold in 2017 for $700k odd. Before a a house rules style renovation.

          I’d say you’d be better off finding similar unrenovsted and restyle to your own tastes.

          • Sorry about the broken link. Yep, he did a lot of work on it (and it needed it, in 2017) – fairly cookie cutter, not exactly full of character, but comfortable; not bad at all for that sort of thing, particular by Canberra’s low standards. My wife cares about the interior, I care more about the land / block, so between us we were ok with it.

            But yes, I agree, something we can put a bit more personality on would be far preferable.

          • A few of those links you’ve posted to houses you liked (and one you bought) were really very nice. Loved them. I wish such houses were in Canberra but the legacy of the vast program of government-constructed housing here is that anything like that is very very rare (and often poorly cared for).

            What we do have here in nearly every suburb – including inner suburbs – is walking distance access to bushland and some chance of large blocks (over 1000m2).

          • Mudbricks are quite uncommon outside of Victoria. I’ve found a few in NSW and in regional areas but due to the manual labour involved in making them they are quite rare to find.

      • Welllllll… seeing as you ask… 😉 Usually Canberra prices are (I reckon) steadier and more closely linked to fundamentals such as wages and employment than in the Bubble Capitals of Syd and Melb. I think there is less specufesting, maybe because people have good super or more likely just because the culture here is a bit less materialistic and less equity-mate show-offy. A bit!

        Modest price falls were clearly evident in early 2019 (Royal Commission) and also during March-June 2020 Covid time – so they can happen if lending or sentiment gets hit – but far less dramatic than Syd and Melb. I think this price weakness should persist as long as the economy remains weak but I’m not expecting huge falls.

        • DominicMEMBER

          How many Lambos and Ferraris do you have crawling round the place? Just curious.

          Brissy is a dead-end and we have more than you’d think.

          • Honestly, almost zero. Plenty of Euro wagons, the odd Porsche Cayenne, but no sports cars and really nothing truly expensive.

            There is very little extreme wealth here (and very little real poverty). Because there is no big private sector. Just SMEs, a few corporates unlucky enough to be sent to the backwater Canberra office, and a very large number of comfy middle class public service drones wearing polar fleece. (Wearing mine right now. It’s like formal wear here!)

  14. Had a quick scan of the IMF proposal for Governments to take equity type stakes in CoVid hit companies. Cleary they have no idea the LNP are incapable of fairly assessing and distributing fvcking sports grants let alone be trusted to fairly assess in the public interest those companies the Government should take an equity stake in.

  15. Has anyone else had problems posting comments as members?
    I have been unable to post for the last week.
    I can’t even use the “Contact” link to get to the administrators.

      • GunnamattaMEMBER

        Do we know it is the Italian strain?

        I have an Italian mate who beams me Italian press bits and pieces, and there is a fair bit of reporting in Italian to the effect that there was something in Italy circa Oct-Nov last year which may/may not have been coronavirus.

        • migtronixMEMBER

          Oh it’s corona. It went from Italy to Spain to New York.

          Originally we had the Chinese stuff which what they had on the Corona Princess and in Washington state. The stuff now ravaging the US came from New York and is the Italian lineage. Just looking at the numbers I’m pretty sure it’s what we have running around now.

          • GunnamattaMEMBER

            My understanding is that Italy has had a very weird experience. It has run rampant in Northern Italy, but anywhere in the South it was much less, and in a couple of specific places in Northern Italy there is, for little apparent reason, almost no presence.

          • migtronixMEMBER

            That’s my understanding also, it was the same in Spain and in the UK its really England with neither Wales nor Scotland seeing huge problems. The better explanation I’ve come across is the North Italy lineage when it strikes an area quickly out competes the other strains and all strains pretty much out compete the flu and similar viruses, so some areas are don’t see the Italian lineage and until they open again and then… Voilà

          • For once the Italian boast that the Italian version of everything is superior may actually be true.

        • Strain of the virus seems to be irrelevant for the transmission, environmental condditions are way more important. Definately the same strain was present in Milan and Rome or Naples (both with many chinese tourists) yet they had less deaths since January than Milan in a single day in March. Similar story with Madrid and Seville, NYC and Washington dc, …
          Melbourne had quite a few cases directly from north Italy in March (F1 debacle) yet no transmission happened back than because condditions were not right.
          Whether conditions are right now is still hard to say, our numbers are still very small and could be due to rise in testing (testing yield is droping in VIC).

          Also number of very sick and dead is still very low a month after the start of this new wave – this indicates that the number of cases is still well below numbers in March just we found more of them thanks to testing. This is why it’s not smart to increase testing especially when it doesn’t help with tracing.
          Even in Melbourne thic could be just an isolated pocket or few not epidemic of large proportions.

          • migtronixMEMBER

            Rising positive tests are coupling with rising hospital presentations and ICU presentations. Seems pretty congruent.

            As for same strain was in Naples what I mean is all the strains were everywhere but, as you suggest, they started getting that particular sequence in northern Italy where for whatever reason the condition was favourable for that strain to out compete and when it reaches a level of viral load it totally out competes. Which is what is happening everywhere.

            “Multibasic Cleavage Site in the Spike Protein of SARS-CoV-2 Is Essential for Infection of Human Lung Cells”

            So the spike protein is expressed in lots of cells which how the other complications arise and why prior complications/comprbidities are what actually takes out most of the dead.

          • there is definitely the rise of cases and sell as hospitalizations in Melbourne but the numbers are still below March/April levels despite official count saying it’s different.
            This time most of cases are local transmissions but it’s still unclear where and how because, despite so much testing, most of cases are mystery and cannot be linked even remotely to the quarantine escape.

          • migtronixMEMBER

            “49 cases of coronavirus are in hospital, including 15 in intensive care”

            A week ago it was down to 1 ICU case, it took over 4 weeks to get from 15 ICU cases down to 1…

            Linking the cases to the hotel outbreak is done by sequencing the strain not contact tracing, they didn’t see it in the community they did in the hotel quarantine. And now we have community transmission.

          • Linking the cases to the hotel outbreak is done by sequencing the strain not contact tracing
            that just proves correlation not causation
            it’s quite possible that people in Melbourne quarantine and people outside got infected independently with the same strain of the virus. Virus may have come from someone in quarantine Sydney or even imported via goods (frozen stuff, medical equipment, …)

            49 in hospital is not proportional to number of cases when compared to March. there are still definitely less cases than in March despite more people tested positive in last few weeks

            BTW. Why so much testing when it’s not used for contact tracing? What they are trying to achieve? what difference would it make if they had half the tests and 20% less positive results?

          • migtronixMEMBER

            They would know they likely have a lot more infected people they aren’t aware of…

            Knowing what the situation is probably a pretty good idea, I agree it’s well below April – but it’s much higher than a week ago….

      • Hard to comment when my town is being over run by potential covid carriers. What a clusterfuck in the name of keeping the dollars flowing to those that own the lot

    • During the eight-month renovation from church hall to mosque, Mr Erdogan worked with his builder to painstakingly revive the space.
      “I reused and recycled whenever I could, everything has been repurposed,” he said.
      But now the rare residence needs a new caretaker and the home has hit the market as Mr Erdogan takes on other projects.
      “I’ve got a number of projects on the go in Libya, and the problem in the East still needs a final solution”, he laughed.

    • I’m not religious but that’s sacrilege. How many grand buildings have been around for 1500 years? It’s a shame, because it is an insult to their nearest neighbours. Just backward thinking.

      • Mining BoganMEMBER

        Agree. Glad I got to see a lot of things. Glad for me. Sad for the boy. He’s going to have a much different life to my entitled boomerish one.

      • DominicMEMBER

        A mate of mine is quarantining at a hotel South Bank as we speak (he’s been abroad on Gubmint business). Regularly posts pictures of his latest meal. Most looks very sub-optimal so, the alcohol? Well, you can understand.

        Probably a choice of VB or Yellow Glen. On the bright side, good news for the tax-payer. 😉

  16. The Traveling Wilbur

    Tip for the day: Do not include php code in your MacroBusiness display name. Cloudfare will attempt to put you in the corner. Please carry on.

      • The Traveling Wilbur

        Nothing sus. Just a URL/button like EP had / Hugh still does in their username above their comments.

        It would appear that window is closed now. Only values entered sometime ago being legacied in still functional. I assume that’s why EP’s is no more (I assume he must have tried editing it after that window closed and ‘poof’ URL gone).

    • Mr. Stagmal appears to be right. The infection rate was high with many deaths among the vulnerable due to the decision to not provide ICU for the elderly. They would have overrun their medical system if they had. At the same time the population also chose to self isolate which reduced transmission. It isn’t a case of herd immunity, it is a case of the first wave resolving itself in a manner different to other countries. And how you can claim herd immunity when only 75,000 cases have been recorded is baffling.

      https://academic.oup.com/cid/article/doi/10.1093/cid/ciaa864/5866094

      • TrooDohMEMBER

        It is even more baffling when you consider that reportedly only 6.1% of the population of Sweden had developed coronavirus antibodies by late May.

        Oh, and there is no guarantee that lasting herd immunity is even possible given that other human coronavirus do not confer long-term immunity after infection and there is now evidence that people are indeed being re-infected with the COVID-19 virus. See: https://youtube.com/watch?v=qhyEBIpaIaM

      • they did very little testing, just enough to keep track of the epidemic (as recommended by WHO) 12.% of their tests were positive because they were testing only people with significant symptoms

        reality is that based on number of deaths they probably had few million infected

        and as previously reported by few studies antibody tests are usually unable to detect people who had covid just few weeks after the infection (according to Swiss study only 1/5 of people with previously positive PCR test were tested positive on antibodies just few weeks later). Also people with asymptomatic presentation were unable to test positive on antibody tests.

        https://swprs.files.wordpress.com/2020/06/tagesanzeiger-antibody-study-june-2020.pdf

        so 6% in Sweden or 5% in Spain just means that they had 5% of population who had significant symptoms in last few weeks, with asymptomatic cases running at as high as 80% and majority of epidemic happening months ago, that 5% with antibodies is likely to be 50% or 70%

    • So you’re saying that Sweden with a population 10,300,000 and 5,526 deaths has almost reached herd immunity with a mortality rate of 0.053 of 1 percent?

      The US has a population of 330,000,000 with 134,000 deaths. Current mortality almost the same as Sweden at 0.041 of 1 percent.

      So you’re saying the US will reach herd immunity in the next 14 days?

    • DominicMEMBER

      I had heard the Lancet has recently published a paper recently saying that herd immunity in this particular case may not be possible owing to observed instances of recurring infection and a general lack of antibodies in those who’d contracted it.

      • Correct. To get herd immunity you need a vaccination or a situation where infection confers immunity. We don’t have the former, and can’t assume the latter due to evidence of people being reinfected with Covid.

  17. Having just spent the day at the Sunshine Coast races we are truly fcked if any of these border jumping southerners have bought in covid. BAU in full effect, p!ssed idiots everywhere just acting like everything is normal and far too many NSW number plates.

    • Just drove through the Abode carpark in Gungahlin, counted no less than six Vic number plates, would have been more and it’s not a big car park.

    • DominicMEMBER

      There’s been heaps of VIC and NSW numberplates in SE QLD for the past couple of years now — literally we have been overrun. I don’t know what’s worse, the foreigners or the Interstaters! 😉

    • DominicMEMBER

      If you hunt around the internet you’ll find plenty of failed global warming predictions too! Literally, there is no way to turn without a counter-balancing argument!

  18. Went to spotlight and aldi today. Absolutely noone was wearing a mask. Lots of old knitting ladies in spotlight.. no mask no gloves. Even asians not wearing masks who have usually been consistent with the mask wearing.
    People were minding distance well i think. So noone was in your face about it. But still, I was the only one with a mask on in both shops. As someone said here the other day.. lots of dead boomers in a month.

  19. A clearance rate today of 88% according to the REIV. According to their own website there were 103 successful auctions, with another 81 sold before auction (they seem the have put these into the successful auction category). There is also 38 passed in, 15 postponed, 121 no result and 181 withdrawn. How the f**** you get 88% out of that I do not know.
    https://reiv.com.au/market-insights

  20. Arthur Schopenhauer

    There seem to be a large number of empty properties in Blackburn North. Is that the case, or has mowing the lawn and property maintenance become unfashionable?

    Edit: The Ponzi looks to be dead. Dead as a dead dingo’s donga. Six more weeks is a long time in Ponzi-nomics.

    • The failure of hotel quarantine has killed the fantasy that immigration/international students could come back at BAU levels anytime soon. Big Australia is dead… for now… and the implications are profound.

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