Stage 4 lockdown imminent as Victoria records 484 new COVID-19 infections

The situation has turned dire in Victoria, with 484 new COVID-19 infections recorded:

New South Wales recorded 16 new COVID-19 infections.

There are now active cases in Victoria, 96% of the nation’s total:

Victoria has now recorded a whopping 6,773 COVID-19 infections since the pandemic began, with the curve as frightening as ever:

According to SkyNews Political Editor Andrew Clennell, a New Zealand-style stage 4 shutdown is being considered by senior levels of government:

“A federal source has said it would be devastating for the Victorian economy but would benefit the rest of Australia,” Mr Clennell said.

Under the Stage Four restrictions, supermarkets, food banks, pharmacies, liquor stores and corner stores would be the only businesses permitted to remain open.

“Everything else was shut essentially and that is what we’re looking at here,” Mr Clennell said.

“That’s what’s being discussed in the federal government and Victorian government because the numbers are spiralling out of control despite the shutdowns.”

Leith van Onselen
Latest posts by Leith van Onselen (see all)


  1. Under the Stage Four restrictions, supermarkets, food banks, pharmacies, liquor stores and corner stores would be the only businesses permitted to remain open

    What about real estate agents and open-for-inspections?

  2. Turns out that security guard bonking that g4y !ndian hotel quarantine guest was one of the most expensive man-2-man actions in history.

    • Yes, a costly mistake.

      Nobody seems to understand yet that this virus could be much worse than people expect.

      1) There is unlikely to be a vaccine, ever, just like there is no vaccine for the common cold, HIV, cytomegalovirus, Dengue, Chikungunya, human orthopneumovirus, etc
      2) Immunity is short lived (weeks to months according to recent studies), so there is no such thing as “herd immunity” and never will be.
      3) People are not only dying but also suffering brain, heart, liver, kidney and lung damage (glassed lungs). Also chronic fatigue and exertion intolerance, clots and strokes, neuropathy, smell and taste impairment. Getting it is just not an option.
      4) People are getting the virus repeatedly in just a few months, and subsequent infections are worse (see recent Chris Martenson interview ) This also happened in The Spanish Flu pandemic, where the second wave was much more deadly (due perhaps to people with initial silent infections getting re-infected.) Jean-Francois Delfraissy, president of France’s official science advisory board said: “We are at the stage of asking whether someone who has overcome Covid-19 is really that protected. It is possible that the antibodies that someone develops against the virus could actually increase the risk of the disease becoming worse.”

      So this could turn out to be an endemic infection that will always be around, and which everyone has to avoid at all costs.

      You can imagine the impact on society. It will be the worst thing to happen to humanity, ever. It could be civilization-ending.

      • Hey come on the poms are on it, having breakthroughs and all that.

        The side effects of their poison are mild to moderate in the control studies. What could go wrong.

  3. Ajaydee73MEMBER

    Seems like the lockdown is having no effect. Must be Xi Jinping’s brother spreading the virus on purpose.

    “Under the Stage Four restrictions, supermarkets, food banks, pharmacies, liquor stores and corner stores would be the only businesses permitted to remain open.” Liquor stores? LOL. Well I guess all the jobless people will need something to ease the pain.

    • DominicMEMBER

      In South Africa they banned alcohol for a while – presumably because it led to some bad decision-making by punters. I’m sure the illegal moonshine joints complied with the regulations.

  4. Ronin8317MEMBER

    It’s been a week since the stage 3 shutdown, but the number went up even more. That means people are not obeying the lockdown.

      • darklydrawlMEMBER

        It’s works if people do it. But many folks don’t do it property , or at all.

        • it never worked anywhere so it looks like it works as well as communism or free market or any other idealistic policy that assumes people are perfect and behave rationally

          so I’ll rephrase myself: lockdowns cannot ever work and will never work because people are not angels

          BTW. when novel coronavirus becomes airborne none of the measures work because virus doesn’t spread thanks to proximity between people but rather freely flows in the air …

          • New Zealand doesn’t have people…or angels?

            What a soulless, impersonal place it must be…


        So your argument is that stopping a disease from spreading doesn’t stop a disease from spreading?

        • my argument is that what everything we do has a minor effect on the spread at the huge cost. Simply humanity has nothing that prevents an airborne pathogen on a community scale

          so many examples around

        • Doesn’t exist. New Zealand is just an imaginary propaganda piece that the new world order is using to get everyone into lockdown. I mean seriously, “New” Zealand. I’ve never even heard of there being an original Zealand yet alone a “New” one. lolol

      • lockdowns don’t work

        I agree.

        India’s harsh lockdown didn’t work.

        the world’s harshest lockdown. Starting March 24

        This lockdown lasted for 75 days

        Not only did India see its cases shoot up, even the geographical spread of the infection was not contained with lockdown. On April 6, for example, India had 417 districts without any cases. Two months, this figure has come down to 49.

        • And china doesn’t count since their bat eating habits provide a natural source of immunity!

        • You really thought a third-world country with massive overpopulation, poor governance, and a woeful public health system would ever successfully stage a lockdown of it’s populace?


          Australia/India….hmmm…..identical in every respect.

          All it takes in Australia is good governance, and enforcement.

          Unless you think New Zealand is more civilised than Oz could ever be.

          Hmmm..perhaps you are right.

    • darklydrawlMEMBER

      This is exactly what is happening

      When I took my kid to get tested the nurse pleaded with us to stay home after the test until we go the results. Apparently less then 50% of folks do. I have seen this myself with the testing stations at shopping centres. Folks go get tested in the drive thru and then park the car and go shopping!

      • +1 game theory suggests people are doing what they perceive is best for them, not the community as a whole. Haha.

        • interesting radio piece this AM on RN about how the Buddhist/East Asia countries have controlled this (Cambodia, Vietnam etc) due to a dedication to other, not self. Interesting.

          • But I want to be an individual, because I’m superior and all that. All the PR says we need to abandon the old ways of family and community, because identity is far more important.

      • Triage nurse at fever clinic NNSW told me same thing. People get tested, walk out exit, mask off, down to shops.

        It is Lismore though. IQ discount.

    • DominicMEMBER

      Dan the Man was on the wireless having a whinge about this — straya reaping the migrant dividend.

      • The old wite maggots are just as bad, and seen countless Karens and BB tradies flout the measures in my locked down suburb. Such an entitled generation. See comments above on how SE Asia has fared well precisely as everyone can see the benefit to others and hasn’t succumbed to western entitlement, yet.

    • ZevombatMEMBER

      There are conspiracy nuts on social media (see Pete Evans), Andrew Bolt and Alan Jones, promoting anti lockdown and anti mask attitudes. If covid would take out Jones I’d consider that a silver lining AND an effective public health message

  5. looks like lockdowns are not working again (never did anywhere) … but they should be tightened

    once again, what was the definition of stupidity?

      • Mining BoganMEMBER

        No, Innes Bollox said NZ non-covidity was a failure.

        Oi sometimes think he might have an agenda.

        • If Bollox says it it must be true. In the meantime, friends I know in NZ are enjoying restaurants, bars and traveling around the country. What a disaster.

          • “just as Melbournians have been enjoying them up until few weeks ago?”

            Nope. We got a few weeks of eased restrictions, but not freedom. There were still restrictions in place on gyms, cafes, movie cinemas, shops, etc. There were also limits on gatherings.

            New Zealand on the other hand…

          • Nope not the same. Aus plan was never elimination.
            After how long does NZ without COVID spread become a success? 6 months? 12 months?

          • @ LVO
            that’s bad luck, so even under quarantine you got it

            do you think it would be any different in NZ that eliminated the virus if someone escapes the quarantine?

        • Did they completely eliminate it? Did they state that as their goal like NZ did and impose a strict 4 week lockdown to eliminate it? Does Israel have the natural advantage of being an island with no land borders to other countries?

          • did NZ eliminate it?
            did all of this started in Melbourne from a leftowers from April or from newly imported cases from overseas

            there would have been no difference even if Victoria did eradicate the virus prior to quarantine escape

          • I’m saying it’s irrelevant that they did eliminated it because sooner or later a case will slip through the quarantine or get in otherwise (via freight, terrorism, …)
            there would be no difference in Melbourne even if Vic eliminated the virus prior to quarantine failure

      • DominicMEMBER

        The nice lady on the ABC reckons NZ is being deluged with ‘investment visa’ applications right now i.e. applications from wealthy people who want a disaster bolt-hole if things go t1ts up where they are.

    • They are working very well – to slow the spread. Without the lockdown we’d have exponential growth ie thousands of new cases per day by now.

      But that’s what you want isn’t it, you psycho.

      • how do you know that?
        how does cov-2 spreads?

        you are just talking rubbish – tell us and prove when and where lockdowns worked

          • NZ never had any community transmission – almost half of cases were imported and the other half from their family members who kissed and shared cutlery with them

          • our new outbreak did not start from community spread that was out of control. we actually had that under control. Latest outbreak was from people returning form OS and being in quarantine in hotels. Same as NZ, but us being window lickers did not know how to deploy the quarantine properly.

        • Actually it’s the other way around. Give us an example of where faffing around with effectively no lockdowns caused anything other than a massive exponential spike in cases. Hint- all your poster boys are in the wrong column, Sweden UK USA.

          Yep, go back to advising people that the virus is just the flu, sunburn is healthy and kale toilet paper will wipe away cancer. Pete Evans needs the retweets anyway.

      • if there was a single case on the run 6 weeks ago and R0 was 2.5 and median incubation 5 days how many cases we would have by now if nothing has been done? how about if we had 5 cases on the run? do the math its simple?

        you don’t understand exponential function – it looks very slow initially

    • It’s not a binary proposition. Lockdowns will reduce the spread, Melbourne would be having thousands of cases per day had the lockdown not been put in place, similar to other places that delayed acting on community spread. However the lockdown alone won’t bring the spread to 0. It will continue to spread as people get it and spread it to their families and places of work etc, a continued lower level spread. The only way to halt the spread is to do what China did in Wuhan which is to actually forcibly test people then isolate them in a quarantine facility (remember those hospitals they built in a week?). Telling people to stay home and testing people after they have symptoms isn’t enough to take the cases to zero after you have community spread. If it was then France, Italy, NY etc would have achieved zero cases too, and they didn’t….

  6. It feels like it was just dumb luck that the current Victorian story wasn’t the story of Australia given how slow Scummo was to move on the pandemic to begin with. The Lucky Country indeed, but perhaps that luck is starting to run out?

    • Melbourne was lucky for a while … same as so many places around the world
      simply virus is not spreading much unless conditions are right … they seem to be right in Melbourne but not in Sydney or elsewhere yet

    • DominicMEMBER

      It was amazing how this Govt has been given props for their handling on this crisis by media organisations in other countries who were clearly oblivious of how slow it was to respond.

    • elasticMEMBER

      I’m beginning to think that DoctorX is wandering around Melbourne smearing his sputum over lift buttons, door handles and any available surface. It makes as much sense as DoctorX himself.

  7. now we passed the point of It’s Dan’s Fault. Once people realise virus escaped they should also take some basic precautions. I am sure even current guidelines are not being followed and can’t blame Dan for that.

    • Exactly Dan’s fault the Genie is out of the bottle. But the public’s fault for being total fwits. Children who can’t follow instructions.

      Now we all suffer because of selfishness. Seems to be the story of this country over the last 20 years.

      • This is what Dan should have said in his speech: “I acknowledge that I personally showed very poor judgement and lack of common sense in my mismanagement of hotel quarantine, and for this reason I am now stepping down as Premier. I urge everyone in the community to accept personal responsibility for their own actions, as I have done, and to exercise good judgement and common sense in helping to bring this outbreak under control.”

        • So tired of this hating on Dan. He is a tireless worker, has great messaging, and is supporting of the science and seems evidence based. I have far more issues with ScoMos hypocritical self serving messaging and insistence of flawed thinking thats serves his masters interests only, and then only in the short term as they just cant see the 2nd and 3rd order effects.

          What personally did he have to do with a worker getting their joys. The relevant Perm. Secretary was sacked within the week, when you hire someone you expect them to do the job. I completely understand that a casualised security workforce is the problem. Thats not unique to Dans Victoria and the AHPCC should have mandated Prison staff/ADF personnel for all facilities across Australia.

          • Fine. Then he should have said: “I promise that in future, all essential government services will be performed directly by government and not contracted out.”

  8. MB readerMEMBER

    I suspect people will want total elimination otherwise we will go in and out of this. It will drive us crazy!

      • Worked for NZ. Can work here if we close borders and people behave accordingly. Heavy fines needed for fwits.

          • The90kwbeastMEMBER

            It worked and is working in all other states of Australia. Using Australia as an example, 1 of the 6 states has NOT had success with lock downs. You are saying they don’t work. Stats are against you…

            You sound like Graham Turner on the radio yesterday doctor X. Just let rip eh!

          • you are missing word YET in your assessment
            this is a marathon race and 6 states are fine now just as Vic was a month ago

      • TightwadMEMBER

        You’re one of the only contributors on here who talks any sense on this subject. I keep waiting for people to wake up, cut through the hysteria and nonsense, and look at the facts but sadly I see it is unlikely so we are doomed to rinse and repeat this ridiculous lockdown in perpetuity.


        Docx, what are you actually arguing for? Like, what is your point of view with this thing? No lockdowns? Should we also abandon efforts for treatments and vaccines? Should we just close all hospitals forever and not treat people for illnesses and just go long mass graves? Should we perhaps disband all of virology and related fields as useless? I’m battling to see what exactly yer point of view is and what you would like to see happen. Ie. What woukd your response be to a global pandemic, if you had the controls?

        • your implications are mean
          saying that some measures don’t work and so should not be implemented because they cost a lot is not the same as saying we should do nothing
          what we have to do is to protect elderly while safe people gain immunity so we finally get transmissions under control via herd immunity and than open forever. That way we may be able to protect 10% of those at high risk. instead we do this repeated suppression where every opening is just temporary followed by hundreds of deaths among vulnerable

          Sweden failed with protecting the people at risk but succeeded with herd immunity, their numbers are down despite very few measures being introduced – in last week or so they almost have as few deaths as melbourne does in full lockdown

          with suppression strategy we are more likely to end-up with more deaths among vulnerable at the end

          • darklydrawlMEMBER

            “while safe people gain immunity”… This is a nice idea, but where is the data saying people get immunity? That seems to be an unknown at this point. What if most people don’t get immune, but reinfected instead? There is too much unknown about this virus at this point. Maybe it will fade out naturally or maybe we do get natural immunity post infection, but right now it is more of a gamble than a fact. I suspect your tone would change if someone you loved caught this thing and was badly impacted by it. I don’t wish that upon you or the folks close to you, but I find your ‘throw the sick people to the wolves to save the economy’ attitude disturbing.

          • so far there is no infectious disease know to humankind for which people don’t get long lasting immunity of some sort
            in some cases that immunity is not absolute but subsequent infections are always mild, short and person is infectious for shorter period ans has much lower viral load so it spreads it much harder

            if that was not the case Sweden would still have exponential rise because those people from March would be infected again and so on.
            Clearly that’s not the case and numbers are falling because there are less susceptible people around

          • You are waaaay out of your depth, Dx.

            “We are at the stage of asking whether someone who has overcome Covid-19 is really that protected,” said Jean-Francois Delfraissy, president of France’s official science advisory board.

            For Tangy, an even grimmer reality cannot be excluded.

            “It is possible that the antibodies that someone develops against the virus could actually increase the risk of the disease becoming worse,” he said, noting that the most serious symptoms come later, after the patient had formed antibodies.

            That’s what happened with the Spanish Flu, where wave 2 was the most deadly of all.

          • there is no infectious disease know to humankind for which people don’t get long lasting immunity of some sort

            Ohhh, you mean like AIDS?

          • TB would also like a word, not to mention its buddies leprosy and Buruli ulcer!
            Malaria also has about 200 antigenic cassettes that take about 20 years of not dying to become slightly less sick.
            And don’t forget our good friend syphilis!

      • You’re right that people tend to make messes of things. But it came back because of failed international traveller quarantine, not community transmission (though I wouldn’t be surprised if it may have come back via community transmission anyway, just not with the same vigour).

        Honestly, I was wrong about how effective the lockdowns were – and I was gladly wrong, as I thought people would do a lot worse than they did. Since then, I have actually been looking forward to a semi-functional domestic economy. Not looking so rosy now 🙁

  9. Didn’t Mig or someone say it would be 500 per day next week? Maybe a little too optimistic.

    • I would be among the dead in that scenario, but if it wipes off the scum that are Melburnians and wipes out the bezzle, I’m ok with it. Unfortunately it leaves the Sydney strain of swine alive.

    • Geez Melbourne is picturesque. A neutron bomb is much more appropriate. Save the glassing for Canberra and Radelaide!

  10. Scab Quarantine Security

    Lockdowns, tracing and hygiene precautions have worked well across Asia.

    Even in relatively poor countries like Thailand and Vietnam with a high population density in their major cities they’ve completely stopped the plague in its tracks.

    Melbourne a city with a very low population density has the plague running rampant through the population.

    Total incompetence for Australia to not nip this in the bud.

    Failure of western culture. Western governments don’t have the ability or expertise to contain this virus, while western citizens are selfish and impatient.

    Half the western world is popping powerful psychoactive mind altering drugs like Adderall. Can’t expect someone that pops Adderall and puts are pair of shoes on Afterpay to be able to see past the next pay cycle.

    • you are saying that “lockdowns, tracing and hygiene precautions” work better in Thailand or Vietnam than in Singapore or Japan?
      or maybe just virus is not spreading as easily in these countries? didn’t become airborne yet? what’s more likely? what do you think?

      • Scab Quarantine Security

        I think it’s the selfishness and arrogance of western governments and people.

        We’ve been made to look stupid by Asia. They must be sitting back laughing. Never will they allow a western country to lecture them again.

        Japan has had extraordinary success. The virus should have ripped through Tokyo the biggest, one of the most dense cities on Earth where millions take public transport everyday.

        • Japanese culture is 1 where they prioritise the whole over the individual. In Japan you do what is polite and good for the community. Selfish behavior is frowned upon. Here being selfish is a badge of honour for some folks.

        • but again, there are Asian governments that equally “failed”

          virus should have ripped through Naples (the poorest, dirtiest and most crowded big city in Italy) as well but it didn’t. it ripped in Milan the wealthiest and cleanest where cold and socially distant Italians live

          do you even think it’s possible that the virus doesn’t spread equally easy in different environments?

    • Are the people here that stupid? Name me a city where they are testing 25-30k people per day? You seriously think Vietnam, Thailand, Indo, or even Australia for that matter are testing like Melbourne? Wake up ffs the more you test the more you find.

    • Everyone thought Singapore did a bang-up job… until they didn’t.

      Everyone though Hong Kong did a bang-up job … until, well, have a look.

      Thailand (junta-led monarchy); Vietnam (more communist than China). Do you really believe their numbers?

  11. none wants to do math so I’ll do it for you

    if there was 5 case freely moving around in Melbourne on 6/06 (3 days before the smallest increase in cases have been recorded), – 46 days ago and no measures have been taken of any kind (assuming most accepted numbers : R0 2.5, incubation period 5.2 days, duration patient is infectious 5 days) by now on 46th day we would have had just over 2000 cases including those in incubation over 750 in incubation
    our daily number of new cases would have been less than 100

    to match our current numbers we either had more than 20 cases running around 46 days ago or virus is spreading much more effectively so R0 is well over 3 and no measures are working

    • As far as I can see your the only one around here that talks some sense yet everyone else wants forever lockdowns while they sit on government handouts. Keep it up drx the truth hurts.

      • Lockdowns will bring this country to its knees, encouraging a political reset where our society will possibly return to one that values the community, labour, and the young over capital. Let it burn.

        • I think your wrong. Once every business collapses you become dependant for food, shelter etc and what next? eastern Europe pre 1980? Right now the young including myself are being sacrificed to save the very very old. You think that is ok?

      • Ronin8317MEMBER

        What people here want is to eliminate the virus like New Zealand, South Australia, Western Australia, NT and QLD. (for now anyway).Australia was very, very close to achieving that except for the hotel quarantine debacle.

          • Think you may be on to something there – if you don’t test for cancer, heart disease and diabetes it doesn’t exist.
            You may have solved most of the life threatening diseases in the world. Nobel Prize?

    • frag outMEMBER

      Few assumptions there, and it is like to be a combination in any case. Either way, it is worse each day.

      Something the daily numbers indicates (to me at least) there is quite a range in the reported daily cases. Up and down depending on the day of the week. The trend is generally up, and so that +/- range over a few days represents the margin of error around the aggregate actual. In sampling terms, that’s called uncertainty. And in this case, the uncertainty represents a large proportion of the prior days’ outcomes. In other words, the testing regime doesn’t appear to be capable of accurately determining the numbers, i.e. is not up to the task.

      • There’s a measurement problem for sure. People with mild symptoms not being tested and people with no symptoms clearly not being tested. We are measuring a % of the active cases, that also explains why lockdowns don’t impact in the way we would expect them to all around the world in bringing transmission down. Its partly a phantom spread from a symptom and testing perspective. It’s also possible that those with minimal symptoms, the young, have many more contacts and are less likely to come forward for testing due to the mildness of their symptoms.

      • To me they appear lower on weekend testing results and higher early during the week. The cynic in me say’s its people trying to get out of work but in no way are they willing to give up their weekend.

        It gives me some confidence to think a case cannot be that bad. If it was serious you can guarantee stats would not change based on the day of the week. If you are really sick, you are really sick and would get it checked regardless of the day.

      • Testing is irrelevant for the point I want to make.
        Even by discovering all cases we have more confirmed cases than there should be in total assuming 5 cases running around 45 days ago, no measures and assuming best official features of the virus
        Something is not right. For measures to be working even slightly virus needs to ne much more infectious or we had to had hundreds of cases in Melbourne 6 weeks ago

        • frag outMEMBER

          I appreciate that, my additional point made indirectly is that currently, cases manifest themselves through the outcomes of testing or tracing after the fact. Both are flawed. If by Dan’s account, 9 in 10 don’t seek testing, it indicates that there is a vast amount of untested/unaccounted for positive cases. Hence the numbers now, or then, are but a fraction of the actual number. So in short, I agree with you.

    • Fabian AlderseyMEMBER

      DrX, how are you going to force us all to catch COVID19?
      Lockdown or not, a lot of people don’t want to catch it and will isolate themselves for as long as it’s around. Elimination may be impossible, but if we don’t try for it, the economic devastation goes on for years and years.

      • None wants to force anyone to get covid. It’s people supporting lockdowns forcing people not to get infected who would like otherwise. Lockdowns are forcing and taking freedom from people.
        Otherwise those don’t wanting can self-isolate or wear full protective suit or whatever

        I want my kids and me to have an option to get over covid while young and healthy rather than later when older and sick and I also don’t want them to be wasting life locked hiding just to get it at the end anyway

        • Fabian AlderseyMEMBER

          What if it turns out that getting it now sets you up for getting it much worse a few months down the track? There’s so much conflicting information out there regarding immunity or lack thereof.
          I don’t want to catch it even once.

    • You are not accounting for the superspreading events at the school and public housing. One person can infect dozens if not hundreds. Still its obvious its out of control now. The first lockdown schools and childcare were locked down, not this time.

  12. They won’t be able to get to zero without very draconian measures such as forcibly testing everyone (with or without symptoms) and quarantining people in a facility rather than at home. Melbourne will become a ‘dirty city’ with Sydney close behind. They will eventually open up with low level spread and precautions. Other cities will continue to be complacent then have their own outbreaks in the months ahead, including NZ. You only need one person to seed an outbreak where there are no precautions being taken regarding movement restrictions, gatherings of people, masks etc. The virus has more resolve than the one stupid human it needs to find.

    • This Melbourne second wave would have been the same even if virus was eliminated for months and there was no cases for long time. Simply there is impossible to prevent virus reentering while there are hundreds of millions infected around the world

      • 4 weeks quarantine away from population centres like they did in the old days. There is a runway and detention centre in Woomera.

  13. bolstroodMEMBER

    C’mon Gladys get a go on.
    Lockdowns and masks obligitory for a month, and we willhave this thing beat.

  14. Locus of ControlMEMBER

    Those who know anything about Melbourne’s history will know Batmania was once considered a potential name for the place.

    And now Bat Flu runs rampant through the place, moreso (presently, I acknowledge that could change any time) than in any other Australian city, state or territory.

    Not putting this out there for any reason other than it being a marginally interesting coincidence.

  15. i really thought would have yest or today as understood part of delay was fighting over who would bear cost of lockdown st 4 to vic biz. thought had been resolved with JK2.0 and new testing measure payments but maybe not. or maybe Vic knows that with lower JK it will mean massive pain for vic biz and employees. (no one considering that not doing so might prolong and increase the pain)