Join us as we discuss CBA’s real-time tracking of the Australian economy, the difficult path ahead, the role of government in stimulating growth, and Gareth’s views on the housing market.
In today’s investment webinar MB Fund’s Head of Investments Damien Klassen, Chief Economist Leith van Onselen, Head of Financial Advice Tim Fuller and CBA’s Head of Australian Economics Gareth Aird pull back the curtain on the Australia’s economy.
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Tim Fuller is Head of Operations at the MacroBusiness Fund, which is powered by Nucleus Wealth.
The information on this blog contains general information and does not take into account your personal objectives, financial situation or needs. Past performance is not an indication of future performance. Tim Fuller is an authorised representative of Nucleus Wealth Management, a Corporate Authorised Representative of Nucleus Advice Pty Ltd – AFSL 515796.
- MB Fund Podcast: Pulling back the curtain on Australia’s economy with CBA’s Head of Economics, Gareth Aird - July 31, 2020
- MB Fund Podcast: The Road to Economic Hell is Paved with Good Intentions - July 24, 2020
- MB Fund podcast: Will Insolvencies topple the Australian economy? With Caroline Di Russo (Includes podcast version) - July 17, 2020
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We’re interested in your responses to our question of the week:
Do you believe Jobkeeper and Jobseeker should be kept at their current levels or cut cold turkey?
Jobseeker maintained at current levels.
Jobkeeper cut cold turkey.
JobSeeker whatever acoss says.
JK cut with warning.
Return the dole to Commomwealth CES management
Agree pretty much with Brenton. Keep jobseeker (at about $1000 per fortnight) and discard jobkeeper. As was said in the podcast, release the workers in most hardest hit industries to find other work (while giving them liveable support) and then when the most effected companies are back on their feet then they can go on a hiring drive.
JobKeeper and JobSeeker duration and rate should be commensurate (inverse) with the government mandated restrictions, preferably differentiated by jurisdiction. This is more difficult in a federation but doable although I doubt the legality. If JobKeeper is removed entirely prior to lifting of restrictions the chances of business recovery is much reduced.
Jobkeeper is a debacle and should be canned. Too much rorting and too many, presumably, unintended consequences. From the get go it struck me as being more about managing unemployment figures and muddying the waters as to what constitutes being unemployed.
Similarly, the change of name from Newstart to Jobseeker was another image management exercise to differentiate between the newly worthy unemployed versus the preexisting unworthy shirkers. It was good enough to leave long term unemployed eking out an existence on around $40 a day previously, but suddenly an almost doubling of the fortnightly allowance was required just to live.
Seems to me that Scomo and Co knew very well that treating a huge number of newly unemployed as shitfully as they had been treating the preexisting ones forever iaw their neoliberal ideals was going to create a huge new hostile voting block. Already now they are crapping on again about jobs, jobs, jobs, when for very obvious reasons there simply aren’t that many viable jobs to go around.
There should be one allowance for all unemployed, and it should be set at a meaningfully higher amount then the previous Newstart. As Swampy suggested, bring ACOSS into this discussion, and bring back the CES to replace the useless and fragmented Job Network providers.
Agree that JK should be cut cold turkey. Immediately.
Businesses need to be let to fail otherwise the whole system eventually fails and the country becomes an uncompetitive, broke, innovation-less hell hole.
Although, that’s already the path that both major political parties in Australia have decided to navigate the country well into already. IO (and therefore, China) has single handedly saved us so far.
It’s already all of those things.
getting better and better Tim. Last two along with Jonathan R podcast while ago.. Very informative.
Thanks for the feedback niko. Glad you enjoyed it.
Dissapointed that little attention given to AUD in discussion.
John for my 2c worth
Gold seems to be the driver at the moment
If gold holds this 2,000 level and pulls back lower
It’ll probably drag ASX down
And AUD to follow lower
Let’s keep an eye on hold
It’s held $1980 twice and pulled back
Let’s see what happens to Gold, I think that will drive direction
*Gold
It’s covered at around 1:19:00
He was not convincing on the housing market. especially @ 1:07:10 when LVO probes him on rates being tapped out.
Some simple macroprudential crashed the market 15%, what does a recession with no rate cuts do to the housing market?
He acknowledges that he was wrong in the past when he was caught out by the power of rate cuts (the housing market rallied in spite of the mining bust)…. but… there are no more rate cuts.
Good podcast though. Appreciate Gareth’s view!
Good stuff from the rest of the lads (as usual).
Yes, I agree. I was also underwhelmed by the advocacy for high income tax cuts (beyond the fact that it’s legislated) and the lack of endorsement for lower income policy – Leith (I think it was him) again made the compelling points that lower incomes spend all extra income which is exactly what is needed to lift demand whereas higher income tend not to.
I think there is a lot of institutional self interest involved I that perspective when you consider the amt of debt many high income households have. DFA’s mortgage stress data caller immediately to mind when I heard his thoughts
Yes, your’re right, this debt bomb is widespread. I guess my position is more about net wealth rather than income.
I completely agree with you on that. I don’t think high income earners should get those tax cuts, but I’m guessing that is Gareth’s thinking behind why it might be useful for them.
He works for CBA. He’s on a leash.
Gareth Aird is one of the good guys, but he is high up in the CBA , he has to be very conservative in his statements, Im quite surprised at the amount of free speech he has frankly.
Management 101 training. Tell a personal story to get people to both believe and have empathy for your view. This is 3rd week CBA mgt training stuff. He wants you to believe the property market will succeed.
Increase JK and JS. Way passed the rubicon now.
Go all in on the support. Helps everyone.
Thanks TF, DK and LvO and especially Gareth Aird. That was better than great. Time well-spent watching