Links 9 July 2020

Global Macro / Markets / Investing:





Leith van Onselen


    • stock market and fundamentals divorced few decades ago when monetarism took the central stage

      the whole idea of monetarism is how central bank to control stock market prices via control cost of money – real economy is unwanted necessity


    as I said before, in March-April we didn’t have epidem!c in Australia, we were just recording imported ca’ses and few ca’ses among their close family members/carers/wards
    when government closed border number of ca’ses dropped – l0ckdowns in March/April did nothing … by the time results of l0ckdowns had a chance to show in numbers, number of new ca’ses was already down by 80%. Simply virus was not spreading in Australia

    this time around all ca’ses are local caused by the cov-2 finding a nice environment – hard to tell because they keep changing testing criteria so it’s hard to say if there is actual rise in number of ca’ses or just more tests create more ca’ses. If this is genuine rise in its ability to spread than Melbourne may and probably will see London scenes.

    • BTW.
      What is the most amazing to me is how even now after so much evidence people still believe that the virus has fixed basic reproduction number regardless of the environmental conditions.
      just think of Naples or Rome vs. Milan or Seville vs. Madrid or Washington DC vs. NYC

      • ChinajimMEMBER

        Er, who ever believed that? The basic reproductive number, R0, has always been known to depend on the environment and human behaviour. Anyone who thinks otherwise hasn’t been paying attention. That has always been the communication from health authorities here.

        • politicians are all about human behaviour emphasizing how their measures are reducing effective reproduction number to levels below 1
          while in reality R0 has been below 1 in many locations during many periods of time (e.g. Australia in March before any social distancing measures)

          I never read that anyone said that basic reproduction number at a certain location during a certain period is lower than 2 while data clearly shows that in many locations around the world

          • ChinajimMEMBER

            Okay… apart from the fact that the ABC here in Australia provide a daily update of the R0, which has mostly been below 1 for the last couple of months.

            So I really still don’t see what you’re on about here.

      • that study only looked into antibodies IgG and IgM so result is no surprise knowing what happens with other coronaviruses

        when it comes to cellular immunity CD4+ and CD8+ T cells have been found in 100% and 70% of convalescent COVID patients
        but that’s not the end, around 60% of population had certain immunity even before exposure to SARS-Cov-2 because they were exposed to similar viruses before

        antibodies are just one of three main mechanisms of our immune system but you are right that vaccines that look into antibody immunity are going to fail

        • I called you out on this before.

          The article only speculates about immunity to Covid-19. Everything else is your assumptions and spin.

          If it is just your opinion please say so, instead of pretending you have any conclusive evidence. So far, I am not even sure you can understand what you are reading…

      • billygoatMEMBER

        Sounds like the world is awash with scientific, medical, political, governmental, financial & media borne BRAIN FARTS theorising about Covid / Corona.
        None it seems can agree on its origin, fatalities, rate of spread or even what it’s called: COVID Corona Covid 19 etc. It is what it is:)
        Instead they shart their nonsense accross the global airwaves to be gobbled up by those too thick to think for themselves:)

  2. migtronixMEMBER

    Donald Trump is so fat!
    How fat is he?
    He’s so fat they had to remane the White House to the Wide House.

    nails in the coffin of the garbage DrX and co were spouting,

    More than three months later, the coronavirus is blamed for 5,420 deaths in Sweden, according to the World Health Organization. That might not sound especially horrendous compared with the more than 129,000 Americans who have died. But Sweden is a country of only 10 million people. Per million people, Sweden has suffered 40 percent more deaths than the United States, 12 times more than Norway, seven times more than Finland and six times more than Denmark.

    The elevated death toll resulting from Sweden’s approach has been clear for many weeks. What is only now emerging is how Sweden, despite letting its economy run unimpeded, has still suffered business-destroying, prosperity-diminishing damage, and at nearly the same magnitude of its neighbors.

    • just plain ideological propaganda piece

      lets wait for a year or two and than compare deaths, also why not comparing to death rate to Scotland – a country with early and hard lockdown
      also, notice how they are comparing economical impact by comparing central bank projections not actual numbers LOL

      should I mention quality of life … Swedes had not suffered while Danes did a lot … or maybe purpose of life is to to live longer in suffering while central banks project golden days

      • Bear Bullwinkle

        Lol meaningless QOL non-measure in which lockdown is the ultimate suffering but thousands of your countrymen dying is not suffering at all (obviously all of them wanted to die, none of them had any families, or their families all subscribed to the belief that old peoples’ lives are worthless and miserable).

        Both had similar declines in GDP so economically no difference here. I imagine that might have entailed some suffering, even for the Swedes who don’t care about old people.

        I’m sure many Swedes locked themselves down in the absence of government direction but again no suffering obviously. Suffering only happens from government direction and cannot happen any other way.

        • firstly not everyone who died with covid died of covid – Swedish numbers are good example
          during the worst three weeks from 30/03 to 19/04 officially 1730 people died with covid in Sweden but during the same period “only” around 900 extra deaths have been recorded compared to average for 2015-2019. So only half of people who died with covid died from covid

          also lockdowns are unnecessary suffering and mental health issues including domestic violence are already starting to show as much bigger issue. there is no proof they do much or anything – compare Sweden with Scotland with early and hard lockdowns, or even better compare Rome and Milan or Seville and Madrid – same hard and early measures vastly different results

          GDP decline so far is just projection not actual result

      • Per million people, Sweden has suffered 12 times more Deaths than Norway, seven times more than Finland and six times more than Denmark.

        I guess the sweet release of death ends suffering, except for the family left behind.

        Sweden will be sorted in a few weeks? Worst call ever.

  4. migtronixMEMBER

    Might need skips help here, but is el tinpot some kind of solipsist pangloss? The not so good doctor saw the best of all possible everything because god, and Trump thinks everything is the bestest greatest ever because of him