Links 30 July 2020

Global Macro / Markets / Investing:





Leith van Onselen
Latest posts by Leith van Onselen (see all)


    • Post this again on the rents article just above Max and you may get more people seeing this. 👍

    • I’d say in my area (Perth northern suburbs), average 4×2’s have gone from $420pw ( 4 years ago) to $380 (last few years) and are back to $420 in the last 3 to 6 months (on average).

      Anecdotally friends took the opportunity during the dip to move into “better” areas. So if someone was paying ~$360 in a bad area, then a good option in a decent area opened up at $380 they took that – taking some of the stock off in middling areas, allowing for new incoming interest to start pushing rents back up. Crime in Perth so suburb dependent there can be a real difference paying just 10% more.

      I’d say top end properties, and bottom end feeling the pinch more from the lack of migration, and less “big end salaries” on offer than the boom years. When I look at purchase prices I see a similar pattern, prices for places around the median seems to have been relatively “stickier” than top and bottom quartile prices.

      You’d have been able to get into any of these places for 10% less at the bottom of the market., wa 6028; kinross, wa 6028;/list-1?activeSort=price-asc&includeSurrounding=false

      Second in the list rented for $400 in 2010, $430 in 2015, $390 in 2019, and asking $415 today.

  1. pfh007.comMEMBER

    COVID-19: Is a mountain of public debt for JobKeeper necessary?

    Almost every day the news is full of stories about the explosion of public debt as the Federal Government responds to the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic with billions of dollars of JobKeeper payments, higher JobSeeker payments and fistfuls of special grants and spending programs designed to fill the economic pot holes resulting from large sections of the economy being rendered comatose by social distancing requirements or explicit lockdowns.

    Surely all that money spent by the government must come from “somewhere” and surely the government must borrow it from the people of “somewhere” in order to spend it.

    At least that is the logic. But is it true?

    • Yes probably, but can’t we now just replace it all with MMT printed money? Everyone now says this is all we have to do. Turn on the HP printer & go! (Clarke & Dawe did a great skit on money printing back in 2009…? Nothing has changed & it is all bull.)

      • The Traveling Wilbur

        It’s really quite simple when you think about it Brian.
        Oh, really?
        Yes. It’s just borrowing from yourself in the future.
        From yourself?
        Yes Brian.
        In the future?
        Yes, Brian. You’re really starting to get this now.
        But isn’t that what banks are for?
        Yes, and no Brian. You use a bank to borrow when you’re not in control of the money you need to borrow.
        But if you’re in control of the money you need to borrow, why do you need to borrow any money at all?
        Look Brian, I think you might be starting to fall behind a bit here. Think of it this way, you had parents who gave you pocket money every week right?
        Yes, yes I did. Two.
        And they paid every week?
        Well, if I did all my chores, yes.
        And it was always the agreed amount?
        Yes, yes, unless I’d just put a cricket ball through a window. Or the television. But I only did that once.
        Yes Brian, very good. The point here is, your parents were in control of that allowance. Now imagine you were in control of how much money your parents gave to you, and you had an entire year’s worth of pocket money to decide over. What would you do then Brian?
        I’d be in control of how much money my parents gave to me?
        Wouldn’t it be simpler just to give it to myself?
        Very good Brian. You’re really starting to get this. And once you had it, what would you do with it?
        Well I’d probably give Dad the money for the TV repair bill.
        Well I’m not sure exactly. Do I need to give it back at any point?
        That’s an excellent question Brian. And no, not as I understand it.
        Well then, I’d probably head off to the bank and deposit it and see what rate I can get on post office bonds for the year.

        You know Brian, I really don’t think you’re getting this after all…

        • pfh007.comMEMBER


          Not even a Royal Commission into the woeful performance of our banks or a massive bubble in residential land prices can break the faith of the public in the merits of giving private banks the power to print money.

          Just imagine how good water will taste when we allow Coca Cola and Schweppes to form a water supply cartel backed by the state.

          • Banks were unleashed due to the machinations of things like the Powell memo and various free market ideologues over the period of neoliberalism E.g. rational agent models and the mental gasses from those like the Chicago boys – Born for example. This same ideological agenda allowed egregious interest rates and fee padding, not to mention epic control frauds and my personal favorite predatory loans.

            None of this is intrinsic to banks or the payment system, but the outcome of a bunch of well funded mouth organs that got their perches and funding from corporatists with a world view they aggressively pushed. Hence the idea that if you take out banks that all the other anti social behavior in the market magically disappears is some strong voodoo.

            Its like Trump being a symptom and not the cause.

          • pfh007.comMEMBER

            “..None of this is intrinsic to banks or the payment system..”

            Yep sure thing Skip.

            Did your banker grandpa tell you that or did you hear that from that MMT finance guy holed up in a Caribbean tax haven?

    • The Traveling Wilbur

      But what is truth?

      If nature creates new land to tax from under the sea, is that truth?
      If the illusionist causes a tree to grow in seconds and walks out of the theatre with a hobbled-gate while wearing a long robe, is that truth?
      If a Central Banker creates billions in units of wealth from 1s and 0s and owes nothing to no one, is that truth?

    • this is a great example of ignoratio elenchi where the real question (do we need jobkeeper, lockdowns, social distancing …) gets transformed into a fake one (does government needs to borrow to pay for jobkeeper).

        • migtronixMEMBER

          Wait until you’re wearing a face mask everyday. It’ll be real topical then…

          • pfh007.comMEMBER

            True! That would be miserable.

            Melbourne seems to be hosting a world convention in armed robbery.

            In Sydney it will be topical and a bit tropical. 🙂

            Though not this frosty morning as El Doggo is giving me the evil eye and wants a walk.

        • why would anyone need to frame a question about our monetary system and attract interest from readers ?

          99% of people don’t even know how the system works and would not notice anything if it gets changed.
          monetary system has been changed so many times in the past without public being even aware of it.

          • because you have monopoly over “smart” financial topics?

            What percentage of people around the world knew about Bretton Woods Conference prior, during or after?
            How many paid attention to Nixon shock and how many heard about Group of Ten or Smithsonian Agreement?

            What percentage of people are even aware how majority of money gets created these days?

            do you know how international monetary system works today? can you enlighten us?

          • No doc because him and his were clueless before the BOE statement and the observations going back over 25 years ago because it screws with the ideological narrative their selling. Hence their panic now to sell [tm] the idea of a gold standard before any of the little people get any funny ideas since MMT is getting more public airing.

            These are the sorts that pushed the barter theory of money and how society is structured around it as a preference and not one supported by evidence, hence all the proselytizing.

            I mean in R2M case hes on the record for humanity to be a bunch of drunken rooting compliant knownothings [tm] so he can get cheap day labour in his garden, because his wealth is sacrosanct and should be stored in immutable tokens in perpetuity. Then in the same breath start banging on about generational transfers of weath or anything that messes with increased privatization and the need to put more of everything into the market for pricing and let the chips fall where they may.

          • Unsubstantiated projection. That you don’t like anyone that does not share your world view and argues against what your selling [your own words IMO] is not defined as a troll – see:

            Application of the term troll is subjective. Some readers may characterize a post as trolling, while others may regard the same post as a legitimate contribution to the discussion, even if controversial. Like any pejorative term, it can be used as an ad hominem attack, suggesting a negative motivation.

            So rather than argue or provide some means to evaluate your views, on the comment above, you engage in name calling. Then some are want to bang on about free speech …. eh …

          • pfh007.comMEMBER

            No projection involved.

            Your gibberish / dribble is a classic troll technique.

            Go play with doctorX

            (Who I suspect was formerly known as Modest Mouse)

          • Please drop the dripping mock authoritarian comments, you are nothing of the kind, and I don’t think you realize how it paints you in a public setting. Especially since you consider it a substitute for informed debate, more like a distraction – misdirection away from anything that might mess with what your selling[tm].

        • Now you hate renewable energy leaders too? You’ll only be happy when we’re all living in sackcloth in wattle and daub huts.

          • Again you resort to emotive special pleas that have not been substantiated. I’m on the record for years for being pro renewables, yet as above the issue is not renewables per se, but the machinations of people like Elon and what they think its allowable because of their money.

            Are you arguing that your pro that type of activity and if so what would be your thoughts on being subject to them.

          • I like Elon Musk, a LOT. I’m cutting him slack on this, because nobody is right about everything all the time …. except you, Skip, as we are all reminded daily.

          • I don’t care about your man love for Elon due to some disruptive or savvy operator optics, smells like robber baron romanticism. What I do care about is a private concern getting involved in a coup over a democratically elected sovereign nation and then him not only gloating about it, but saying there is more of that on offer. Sounds like your quite OK with that kinda of authoritarianism aka totalitarianism if there is money to be made, rights of the people that voted for the sovereign leader are forfeit in retrospect. Then you’ll argue property rights – ???? – when it suits “your” agenda – ?????

            Punch line is any equity holdings you have transfer zip property rights, yet you seem to argue that if your yield on them overrides actual property rights of others. Strange notion of capitalism you have R2M.

          • Nothing must stand in the way of lithium supplies. Look at the big picture, if you are able to (doubtful, you’re too myopic and suffer from monomania)

          • “Nothing must stand in the way of lithium supplies.”

            Like I said sounds quite totalitarian, btw lithium is quite abundant and cheap at the moment, not a bottleneck resource like some others, albeit it is a very environmental dirty industry and lest we forget the Summers memo back in the day. So you seem to be saying your pro anti democracy so the effects of this industry can be exported on a weaker nation and its people to service the wants of rich people in far away lands?

            By your logic China has every right to let its rich people dictate to us “because markets”.

          • Was expecting you to reply with some more speculative misdirection since your so knowledgeable about the topic, especially after brought up China. That’s the rub R2M, China has a dominate market position on it, shades of everything else post corporatist stampede into China and now corvid has made that greedy agenda stark naked for all too see.

            But as a bonus it services Business – Neoliberal supremacy in Latin America, so there is that.

    • They’ve had 23 deaths since January. Is that a failure?

      Of course they could have taken advice from the legendary Doctor X and just let it rip, as they more-or-less have done in the US, where we now have over 150,000 deaths and climbing.

  2. “The particular concern is the massive drop in student applications from the subcontinent and this might well be because of the constrained post-study work right opportunities now available to overseas students,” he said.

    You don’t say… the economy supports migration not migration supports economy? Whocoodanode..

      • Oh sorry. The quote was from the link posted in the above MB links – ‘Quite serious’: International student visa applications plummet under Trans-tasman heading

  3. So, everyone has a vaccine, the Russians, the Chinese, the Yanks, the Poms and the Europeans. Just what we need multiple half-arsed vaccines being released into a 7.8 billion member herd. This will train the virus to mutate using a process like this

    Once again human impatience will make a bad situation worse.

    • 7.8 bn customers x 5 kinds of vaccine x 2 doses x $10 per dose = $780 bn profit … not bad not bad ..
      Gates big pharma portfolio is going to perform well

  4. reusachtigeMEMBER

    Those two virus spreaders in QLD look a bit v1brant. Hope they will be made an example of!!!

    • Yes, just got back from a shoplifting holiday. Need to pay for that botox somehow.

    • ruined their face at such a young age. Hope the batFlu gets rid of the dumb genes around here.

    • These two hideous creatures should be fined, made to pay the decontamination costs any business incurs as of result of these two fvcken idiots and no Botox or plastic surgery for seven years.


    When the agricultural industry calls for labour it never gives a rundown on the conditions and pay. Having worked different outdoors jobs where I spend 10+ hours in the sun, as well as quite a few dodgy hospitality Jobs as a kitchen hand, I would say that farm work was easily the most exploitative and dangerous I did. As long as they could rely on people needing to do it to extend their holiday visas many had no incentive to clean up their practices and make it worth the effort to leave the city. If anyone was considering it they should try to find about who they are working for to ensure they are going to be treated reasonably. The dodgy farmers have really damaged the industry as the good ones are punished for doing the right thing.

    • Greshams law at work with a side of old walmart supplier cram down … lmmao at Amazon skirting taxation to challenge the old bloods … albeit I hear both are quite authoritarian in dealing with their employees … classic really …

  6. During an interview with ABC News, Dr. Fauci said Wednesday that he may soon advise Americans to wear ‘eye protection’ to avoid being infected by COVID-19 as deaths along the Sun Belt climb to record highs.

    “If you have goggles or an eye shield, you should use it,” the doctor said, before adding that it’s not universally recommended, “but if you really want to be complete, you should probably use it if you can,” he said.

    • masks don’t work?
      who would have guessed that? LOL

      remember those widely shared infographics claiming how people wearing masks and staying 2m apart have zero change of being infected … LOL

      • As I told you several days ago, DrX, in closed environments where viral load can build, eyes become an issue. It’s usually not something to worry about.

        Also in clinical settings, but that’s not something many people here have to think about

      • Masks do work. They aren’t perfect or foolproof but there are numerous cases of operating theatres full of mask wearing staff performing AGPs (not N95, just standard) being unwittingly exposed to COVID patients and no transmission being recorded.
        They aren’t perfect but they seem to provide some protection.
        Not sure why you are so fervidly ideological about the whole topic.

        • Here on an agenda, being paid? Does the Minerals Council of Australia have money to lose with lockdowns?

          • no they are doing quite well in lockdowns

            climate science on the other side is going to lose just by association with this fake epidemiological science we see around.

            Those running against climate science are already pulling the argument of how they can trust climate models when science cannot sort basic facts about a virus and measures needed to protect us.

            Just watch … if anyone should be wary about measures that don’t work being easily sold to public is people who care about climate change.

    • I wondered when it would get to eye protection for thegeneral public. I bought 2 pairs of safety goggles months ago as part of my pandemic protection. Haven’t used them yet

  7. Gates expecting things to get worse in the US in Fall

    “The U.S., sadly, is not taking this seriously,” says Gates. “The U.S. opened up while infection rates were still going up.”

    Gates, the co-founder of Microsoft and a top backer of global public health initiatives, said the inadequate response has coincided with warm summer months that naturally reduce the spread of the virus but that a lax approach could prove devastating later in the year.

    “The summer is helpful,” says Gates, who along with his wife Melinda has donated more than $350 million to the fight against the coronavirus through the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. “High temperature reduces force of infection, people spend more time outdoors.”

    The fall could prove challenging, he noted, unless new coronavirus treatments and the wide adoption of personal precautions mitigate the increased risks.

    “The fall — if we didn’t have these new innovations coming in, or more people adhering to the face mask regulation,” he adds. “Fall could be very tough.”

    • LOL at the monopolist Gates philanthropic musings … must be concerned about cash flows …

  8. migtronixMEMBER

    Pandemic shmamdemic, these guys aren’t skimping either l:

    “hope you are having a good week so far! I wanted to let you know about an interesting role that we are currently sourcing for, should you be interested and fit the essential requirements. Alternatively, if you know of someone else who would be a good fit we do offer a generous referral bonus for placed candidates.

    Role: AWS Data Engineer
    Company: Transport for NSW
    Rate: $850 – $1,000 + Super
    Location: Parramatta (Work from home to start)
    Duration: End of 20/21 Financial Year”



    The number of new homes consented in the lockdown-affected second quarter of this year was just three less than the same period of last year … Greg Ninness … Interest Co NZ

    The residential construction industry looks set to continue its recent momentum, with new dwelling consents bouncing back strongly after the Level 4 lockdown in March and April. … read more via hyperlink above …
    Building consents issued: June 2020
    … Note the remarkable performance of Selwyn County adjoining Christchurch City to the South … information (below and attached) provided from …with permission …

    Canterbury Construction Report©
    Selwyn exceeds Christchurch for value of new dwellings consented!
    … communicate directly with …
    Mike Blackburn M.B.A
    Blackburn Management
    021 370 018
    [email protected]

  10. You guys need to listen to Chris Joye on the Equity Mates podcast.

    He’s such a [email protected] I’ve barely started and he’s bragged about his intellect several times already and didn’t review the questions that they gave him in advance. He’s encouraging people to get into the bond market because the market participants aren’t as smart as in the equity market (which sounds ludicrous given that the bond market is almost exclusively professional).

    • Some ridiculous China theories that sound like they came from the Pentagon… China apparently wants to impose its ideology on the entire world because the existence of liberal democracy is a threat to its existence.

      If not for liberal democracy, China would still be in the stone age. Its external aggression is garden-variety Great Power behaviour. It doesn’t give a [email protected] what ideology other countries follow if they’re pro-China.