Iron ore prices for July 10, 2020 (growth rates are weekly):
Aaaand we’re off. In a classic seasonal pattern, steel mills have returned from Dragon Boat and gone long iron ore restocking. I still see us popping straight to $130. Higher is very possible if Brazil hiccups.
There is plenty of room to restock:
Steel output remains absolutely outrageous:
Steel inventories are rising again but nobody cares. This is policy-driven:
To wit, a new credit surge is unleashed:
It is local government and household centric meaning build-baby-build, as Chinese growth ex-empty apartments remains shite:
And all of that demand is still landing on a Brazil that looks very shaky:
Though it did manage a better June:
As Port Hedland spewed dirt:
No doubt about it. This will all end very badly, for China, for miners, for everybody, when the bill comes due.
But not this year!
- Bill Evans: “Substantial falls ahead for house prices” - August 14, 2020
- Andrews is a disaster but Morrison is a catastrophe - August 10, 2020
- US jobs preview - August 7, 2020