Last month, the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) mouthpiece, The Global Times, published an inflammatory editorial instructing Chinese students to avoid Australia. This produced a panicked response from Australia’s elite Group of Eight (Go8) universities, which have grown fat on Chinese international student fees:
The Group of Eight – representing the top universities in the country – plans to send a letter to Chinese Ambassador to Australia Cheng Jengye asking for his nation to reconsider the advice.
International Education Association chief executive Phil Honeywood said he would be reaching out to the Chinese government to lift the advice, saying 35 per cent of all foreign students who come to Australia are Chinese and their parents would be swayed by Beijing’s advice…
“Given that China is our largest market and counts for 35 per cent of our full fee-paying international students, the industry will be lobbying to ensure that this travel advice will be lifted as soon as possible.”
It appears that the CCP’s advice has worked, with an unpublished survey of 1,012 students showing that a significant share of Chinese students have abandoned plans to study abroad. The survey also shows that the CCP’s travel advice is a key influencing factor dissuading study in Australia:
Only 40% of students in China who previously intended to study overseas still plan to, while just under 50% of those who had studied overseas plan to return to their study after the borders reopen…
The first group (group A) includes 304 students who had studied in Australia but who were not able to return due to travel restrictions…
The second group (group B) includes students who had never studied abroad before but had registered their intention to in the next three years, including in Australia, before COVID-19…
Not surprisingly, both groups considered the Chinese government’s warnings against visiting, or studying in, Australia important…
Australia has attracted many Chinese students in recent decades. But if Chinese students with Australian degrees are less appreciated or less competitive compared to those who study in other countries or in local universities, families will look for other options.
A Chinese student who had been studying at a Sydney university told us:
“We are the clients and the degrees are a commodity; we pay for our degrees. What if the commodity loses its value? The clients will surely walk away.”
COVID-19 has had a negative impact on the number of Chinese students likely to study in Australia. But the downward trend started way before the pandemic.
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While Australia’s universities will squeal like stuck pigs, a significant reduction in Chinese student numbers would be a welcome development.
According to Associate Professor Salvatore Babones, 11% of total Australian university enrolments in 2017 were Chinese students. This is an unhealthy concentration that dwarfs other advanced nations:
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This concentration would have worsened in the two years to 2019, given the 23% surge in Chinese students at Australia’s universities over that period:
This unhealthy concentration of Chinese students is reflected by the 13 CCP-run Confucius Institutes that operate at Australian universities, as well as the erosion of English-language and teaching standards, and growing incidences of contract cheating.
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Returning Chinese student numbers to sustainable levels would help safeguard both ethical and pedagogical standards.
Maybe then Australia’s universities will return to their core purpose of educating young Australians?
Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness.
Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.
