Blame Victorian Government for COVID-19 tsunami

It was another shocking weekend of COVID-19 infection in Victoria, with 182 new cases recorded across the state:

Victoria now accounts for 96% of Australia’s active cases:

Victoria’s COVID-19 transmission has now topped the March peak:

And this is being driven by a handful of local council areas primarily in the city’s north and west:

The number of seriously ill patients being treated in Victoria’s holidays has also spiked:

The spike in transmissions caused the Victorian Government to implement a hard lockdown on 3,000 residents across nine public housing towers in Melbourne’s north:

They have been shut in their apartments with no notice, with the lockdown enforced by 500 police officers each shift — roughly one officer for every six residents.

Two more postcodes – 3031 (Flemington, Kensington) and 3051 (North Melbourne) – were also added to the suburb lockdown list.

Victoria’s hotel industry has pinned the blame firmly on the State Government, which failed to properly manage hotel quarantine:

Victoria’s hotel industry has slammed the state government for a “failure of process” over the bungled returned travellers quarantine program.

The Accommodation Association said the government should own up to its failings, fix the mess and apologise to hotels.

Genomic sequencing has revealed a big proportion of the latest coronavirus cases in Victoria were due to infection protocol breaches in hotels hosting returned travellers.

“These hotels stepped up to do their duty and then to be absolutely cast out to sea the way that they have by this government is really disappointing, it undermines the confidence in the relationships we’ve built,” AA CEO Dean Long told AAP.

“We trusted the government to run a good program and that appears not to be the case.”

Mr Long said the accommodation industry did not manage these sites, instead that fell to the state government.

“This is effectively an example of a failure of process … and it is leading to a failure of leadership,” he said.

“These sites in the city have been nationalised, turned over to the government who have appointed the staff and the processes, and then to blame an industry for the government’s own failure is disturbing”…

Hotels under scrutiny such as Rydges on Swanston and the Stamford Plaza Hotel said that they did not hire the security staff.

Victorian Premier Daniel Andrews ducked questions on Friday about who authorised the hiring of outside security guards and how that decision was made.

Too right. Recall the list of failures by the security firms contracted by the Victorian State Government to oversee hotel quarantine:

  • Security companies were being paid for workers that didn’t exist.
  • Lack of guards to properly secure the hotels due to these “phantom” people.
  • Guards were given minimal training (six hours of ­infection control training, some had only 5 mins).
  • Guards not following proper procedure – shaking hands, sharing lifts, sharing lighters, not wearing masks.
  • Guards wore personal protective equipment for up to eight hours without changing it.
  • Some guards let families go between rooms to play cards and games with others.
  • Some guards were sleeping on the job.
  • Some guards slept with guests.
  • Subcontracting guards at cheaper rate instead of standard guards.
  • Subcontracting guards switching shifts between hotels.
  • A Bangladeshi man that was discharged from a Melbourne quarantine hotel after returning a positive test travelled to Sydney where he potentially spread the virus to colleagues at a Woolworths store in Balmain.

Manchurian Dan Andrews deserves to lose his leadership over this debacle, which has put the entire nation at risk.

Leith van Onselen

Comments

  1. “The number of seriously ill patients being treated in Victoria’s holidays has also spiked:”-COPY STAT!

    • billygoatMEMBER

      Ha Ha Ha
      Today’s headlines in Melbourne papers:
      Air Hostess to replace security guards at hotels cos like they don’t have reputation / form for sleeping with guests:))) Hilarious Farce Joke #rafefiennes #milehighclub #coffeeteaorme # golddigga

  2. ZevombatMEMBER

    Seems like most states hired security guards for hotel quarantine. WA had a couple of the guards catch covid too. Why did Victoria have the dodgiest security contractors though, and why weren’t they being checked on (by someone other than the premier)

    • Hes a master of the corrupt crony deal. Got Crown casino to fire all its machine techs and then inserted his made up company in there. I believe taking on the old employees on a crappy deal.

    • This. The narrative has conveniently shifted from ‘deaths’ to ‘cases’. Given the high probability of false positives, cases is a meaningless number. The recovery rate too is conveniently being overlooked and not regarded as covid death p0rn.

    • PolarBearMEMBER

      It typically takes about 3 or 4 weeks to die from COVID19. 1 week incubation, 1 week mild symptoms, 1 week serious symptoms, last week is critical. It starts in the lungs, then moves to the blood vessels. The lung phase doesn’t kill you.

    • Steve and Polar both have a point. The death rate has dropped because doctors have a better idea (compared to a few weeks ago) of which treatments/medicines are likely to work for which patient. On the other hand, there is a time lag between infection and death, and you could add an additional week for the virus to spread from the young, healthy people who initially get infected, to the old and vulnerable.

  3. Apparently high density towers are associated with the rapid spread of highly infectious pathogens – who could have guessed? Another revelation is that the public-private contract provision of essential services is prone to rorts and shabby operators – again, a complete surprise that if you hand a critical task like this to poorly trained parking inspectors and ticket clippers that something might go wrong.

    Is it possible that a policy hell bent on packing Melbourne to the gunnels with people might be part of the problem – a total shock if that’s the case of course.

    Although I’d like to see a proper analysis, it is kind of interesting that the leafy and low density suburbs don’t seem to be having a problem with Covid-19 cases of late. I wonder why?

    • Because the security guards hired are mad up of the cheapest most exploitable people in this country. Migrants themselves from africa or asia being exploited by bosses from africa and asia. Isnt that the whole reason we have an immigration program. Not to bring in the best or brightest but the cheapest most exploitable workers hired by their own countrymen who get first crack at the exploitation.

      • He could be mirroring SloMo on this. He’s paying people who can’t get out to work from these vertical slums. WTAF?? If they’re working, why are they in public housing? They’re clearly having a go.

        • Mining BoganMEMBER

          I wondered that when I heard one on the wireless saying that they had been there for 18 years and were employed teachers.

          Is it still the case that once you get public housing you never leave?

          • 100% MB. I once lived next door to a commission house in the middle suburbs and the neighbours were Samoans. The wife was a nurse, employed full time, not sure about the rest of them – there were countless people in there of all ages. They were paying $30/pw (circa 2003) to stay in the house and the commission had offered it to them to purchase which they declined. She laughed and said why would I do that when I’m only paying $30 to stay and instead bought a house for her son in Werribee!

            I felt like a patsy.

        • Ronin8317MEMBER

          They remain in public housing because the cheapest rental outside public housing takes up half their wage after tax ($300+ a week). There is a very steep cliff to climb.

        • “If they’re working, why are they in public housing? They’re clearly having a go.”
          Hope you’re being sarcastic. Min casual wage vs house prices?

    • And while they are doing an analysis maybe someone can explain how that knob on the video chat whining about the lock down had 9 family members living in his 3 bedroom unit. Maybe someone should be looking into things like that now as well. Likely he was running a rental scam.

    • Covid is only contagious in government housing blocks but remains non contagious in slum shoebox overpriced flammable highrises dotted around Melbourne particularly those found in the CBD and inner east and especially those near universities. Yours truly, the health minister for chaz.

    • Stewie GriffinMEMBER

      It is definitely the Vic Govt’s fault – they haven’t provided enough education and training…

      “My name is Awatif Taha and I am from the Sudan. I have lived in the public housing flats in Flemington for 18 years… We have been asking for the government to provide masks, and to teach people how to use the masks.”

      https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/jul/05/it-was-a-shock-to-see-police-surround-our-tower-blocks-but-im-happy-victoria-is-helping-us-at-last?CMP=share_btn_tw

      “teach people how to use the masks”

      …if ever something was self explanatory I would have thought that would be it. They’re not sending their best.

      • Denis413MEMBER

        I don’t think there are masks there to begin with.. you know – they were shipped off to Chyna.

  4. Your charts are missing a few LGAs with high numbers. On cumulative cases you miss WYNDHAM, STONNINGTON, BANYULE, BOROONDARA, MELTON and on active cases you miss WYNDHAM, MELTON and YARRA.
    I note WYNDHAM because a week ago 28-Jun it had 5 active cases and it now has 60. Only HUME outmatches that growth, going from 33 to 104 over the same period.
    .
    From today’s press release – Confirmed cumulative cases total, top 12
    HUME 223, BRIMBANK 161, MELBOURNE 137, MORELAND 125
    WYNDHAM 122, CASEY 120, STONNINGTON 105, MOONEE VALLEY 104
    BANYULE 99, WHITTLESEA 82, BOROONDARA 78, MELTON 77.
    Other LGAs you have included are Darebin 14th on 67(11 active cases), Maribyrnong 21st on 44(16 active), Hobson’s Bay 26th on 32(11 active).
    And for good measure … Current Active Cases Top 12 by LGA
    HUME 104, WYNDHAM 60, BRIMBANK 57, MELBOURNE 51
    MOONEE VALLEY 40, MORELAND 36, WHITTLESEA 30, CASEY 19
    MARIBYRNONG 16, MELTON 16, YARRA 12, DAREBIN 11 tied with HOBSON’S BAY 11

    Finally … one might note how things are going by the increasing length of the press release over the last week. More and more outbreaks, and increasing numbers on individual outbreaks. More testing is good when it produces action to stop the spread … merely following the spread of symptoms is inadequate.

    • Arthur Schopenhauer

      Every suburb in Melbourne is an immigrant suburb. That’s how 1,000,000 people are added to a city in 10 years.

      It’ll jump the Yarra soon.

      • Mr SquiggleMEMBER

        so the 1 million defines us as a migrant city and existing 3 million don’t get a say in it?
        This is how the population boosters have been winning…persuade enough people that we a just a migrant nation and suddenly those who were born here are left scratching their heads.

  5. I am GrootMEMBER

    This is just one more to add to the long list of debacles that can be chalked up in large part to privatisation and poorly targeted deregulation. That list grows longer every year. Unfortunately the trend has become so pervasive in this country that the root of the problem can no longer be identified by most. Increasingly few remember how things used to be when they generally worked. It certainly wasn’t perfect, and placing the key functions of society entirely back in govt hands is unlikely to be the whole answer, but what we have now sure as hell isn’t working.

    I blame a long line of political leaders who have no real interest in public service, accountability for outcomes, or hard work beyond the minimum required to ensure their political and post political futures are enriched. Clearly they have so little idea of what goes on in the real world that they don’t even know what questions to ask their yes men to reduce the risk of copping blowback from the sort of obvious incompetence that is glaringly obvious to most of us.

    • working class hamMEMBER

      “Clearly they have so little idea of what goes on in the real world that they don’t even know what questions to ask their yes men to reduce the risk of copping blowback from the sort of obvious incompetence that is glaringly obvious to most of us.”
      I’m afraid it’s just corruption, not stupidity that is the root cause of their seemingly obvious incompetence.

      • I am GrootMEMBER

        Contracts for their mates, for sure. Even so, they could be a bit smarter about who they choose and what minimum performance they demand of them.

      • fitzroyMEMBER

        Thak’s right. The recent branch stacking is an example. Spoils for the Victors.

  6. TailorTrashMEMBER

    ….and the Victorian government is going to manage
    the engagement with China belt and road ….what could possibly go wrong ?
    ….

  7. This security debacle is the “mates” economy at its Australian finest. But who exactly were the mates? And how much cash was in the brown paper bags? Or do they use intelligent deposit machines these days?

  8. MountainGuinMEMBER

    While Vic decisions have been terrible, the Feds are in charge of border controls and have allowed high risk returns knowing hotel quarantine is tricky.
    I also suspect hotel management knew the security approach was terrible. Did they tell the dept health or were they comfortable with the quarantine accommodation income they were getting.

    • Sounds like a fair bit of blame shifting going on there.
      Other states seemed to have managed hotel quarantine OK.
      Right of return to country of origin is well enshrined in international law.
      Quarantine probably should be run by the feds in the year 2020 , but thats not how Australian federal system works.
      Its not the Hotels responsibility to enforce/inform on government quarantine procedures as if they were even qualified to do so.

  9. Of course you’ll find cases when you test hundreds of thousands, what is the probability of error for false positives with so many tests undertaken? Whatever the case locking healthy people down who haven’t committed a crime in flats like that is damn cruel, imagine the depression, domestic violence etc going on in there atm not to mention greater Melbourne whose poorer postcodes were also locked down. Meanwhile the virus is mutating to become more contagious and less deadly, the WHO have just declared that asymptomatic cases are not contagious like they once thought and countries hit the hardest in Europe have opened their international borders.

      • Are you saying asymptomatic people DO spread the virus even though WHO has acknowledged that they don’t? My point is why are we still locking down healthy people when the consequences far outweigh the benefits? WHO should have made this call long ago but still we follow outdated advice.

        • fitzroyMEMBER

          They have too many priors. I have seen reports that 40% of carriers are asymptomatic. The perfect virus. I wouldn’t trust the WHO with anything,

        • PalimpsestMEMBER

          Although WHO have some mixed messages, the current WHO advice is that asymptomatic patients spread the virus. Research is very clear that maximum shedding occurs in the three days just prior to symptoms appearing.

  10. While it would appear that the health system is now better prepared to manage COVID cases, without a vaccine, we will almost certainly see more deaths. Mortality is a lagging indicator.

  11. Mr SquiggleMEMBER

    These towers are exactly the sort of high density living the population boosters want us to embrace. Apparently, they make us a better country…..

    • Maybe they’re on the take from the Libs? They’ve joined the conga line of suckholes on the teat, do nothing, say nothing, all care no responsibility, keep pulling the generous parliamentary salaries and looking forward to payback post politics. I noticed Wong showering Cormann with praise on the weekend. I can’t tell the difference these days.

    • drsmithyMEMBER

      They’re semi-evil. They’re quasi-evil. They’re the margarine of evil. They’re the Diet Coke of evil. Just one calorie, not evil enough.

  12. Nah, Dan should not lose his leadership over this. Yes i’s a stuff up, but really, who else would you see leading? Surely not those numbnuts in the Vic Libs.

  13. The FallMEMBER

    I’d like to see Mikakos go. She’s been a waste of oxygen since day one of this debacle.

  14. Alright, this sounds like Skynews. How easy is to critisize and make demands while not being in charge. Yes, whoever designed the hotel quarantine system in Vic must go (think already did). Health minister too. Dan, I don’t agree… He delegates and seems a reasonable man compared to LNP MPs and others within Labor.

    What needs to be clear is that this is the new normal. Outbreaks will happen… Or you are suggesting that NSW with more population density than Mel has a few cases because people observe social distancing? No, mild symptoms are not getting tested.

    What is happening down here is that they are testing the hell out of those hit suburbs. And that is reflected on stats.

    There are people with the virus with no symptoms… You just need those to start the outbreak.

    There is no way to eradicate this virus unless you test the entire population and close borders indefinitely or wait for Vax. The former won’t happen…. The latter we don’t know.

  15. rob barrattMEMBER

    Anger is pointless. You are watching the inevitable.
    Andrews, as a civil servant, was at the top of an organism that never fired anyone for incompetence. That has led to a culture of doing as little as necessary. When in doubt hire a contractor. That way you can blame someone else. There are now over 900 government agencies in Canberra. Ill defined goals and duplication of effort must be epidemic. Add the state governments to that equation ……
    So, the “experts” above were supposed to contain the virus? Well:
    • high rise towers (vertical cruise ships) and cramped cities were always going to be the epicenter of the inevitable explosion. Remember New York?
    • Our state borders (except with WA) are totally porous;
    • Our population, especially the young and mobile, have had it with lockdown.
    Go work it out.
    As our government media, the ABC will of course find someone who uses the word “community” every 4 seconds to explain it all in a suitably anodyne manner.
    Meanwhile, – it’s out and the community is rushing for those toilet rolls.
    Hearing today that over 25% of Americans would not agree to a vaccine injection even if it was available(????), I’ve reached the conclusion that Covid, like flu, is here to stay. You can talk about it all day, but, IMHO, the countries who have been locked down for the shortest periods will turn out to be the first to recover economically. We cannot lock the rest of the world out forever.
    That doesn’t mean I like what has happened. I got the virus in Europe in March and could not return to Australia – it was all very unpleasant to put it mildly.

    • Ronin8317MEMBER

      We need a cure because vaccination have become a ‘politically subject’. We can still vaccinate those at risk (elderly, diabetic, etc) which will prevent a lot of death.

      Looking back, the decision to use contractor for everyone is started in the 80s by an ideological push to trim down the public service numbers without implementing restructuring. Without efficiency gain, the same number of people is needed to do the job, so private contractors are hired as they don’t show up in the ‘head count’. This has now become entrenched. To make things even worse, the companies that wins the government tender will often subcontract out the job as well to the lowest bidder. This is the curse of the MBA management course : where people mistaken reports as the actual reality.

      ‘Letting it rip’ is not a good solution either because the strain has been mutating already. The strain stared in Wuhan is not as contagious as the strain in Europe, and by the time it reached USA is has become more deadly as well. Global mortality rate is about 3-4% right now : so we’ll be looking at around 200 million death if 80% is infected.

      • rob barrattMEMBER

        Agree on the sub-contracting making it worse. I’ve no doubt the virus is mutating and that letting it rip is not a good solution, but I think it will now always be out there and people will have to choose (or have it chosen for them) whether they want a vaccination.
        Funnily enough, a very clever guy I knew (a professor) back in the late 90s in Adelaide forecast that a pandemic would come out of China in the next 20 years. The only thing he got wrong is he thought that pigs would be the causal medium. Still, he could be right about the next one.

      • rob barrattMEMBER

        I think we will eventually be forced to open our national borders due to overwhelming public outcry over the economic effects of isolation.
        Whether we can adequately protect our elderly and vulnerable is down to the likelihood of whether we can create and distribute a vaccine before the public explosion above occurs. I’m with doctorX on this one.

      • rob barrattMEMBER

        8 days in bed. Infected on a one week skiing trip to Austria. Spent 51/2 hours freezing on Frankfurt railway station platform after flight to Singapore cancelled 20 minutes before takeoff (11.30-PM) due to SIN closing to transit. Managed to get train to Amsterdam & flight to UK (am citizen). Symptoms started 48 hours later. Ended up doing 10 days quarantine in Brisbane hotel when I got out of UK on Qatar flight.

      • rob barrattMEMBER

        There were some mergers. My list is from 2013. But there are lots missing eg. Forrest Industry Advisory Council . Either way, you can bet your shirt the number of pen pushers hasn’t gone down and the duplication between Federal and State agencies is massive. Try this:
        https://www.productsafety.gov.au/products/health-lifestyle/personal/personal-care/hot-water-bottles
        https://www.fairtrading.nsw.gov.au/buying-products-and-services/product-and-service-safety/other-consumer-products/heat-packs
        https://www.accc.gov.au/system/files/Hot%20water%20bottles%20safety%20alert.pdf
        Yes, that’s only 3 organisations (there are lots more devoted to the same) telling us not to pour boiling water over our head when we fill a hot water bottle… Forget the instructions that would have come with it. Multiply those by the number of other mundane life tasks and you get some idea of just how bad it is. I can imagine that somewhere our wonderful governments are spending time and resources telling us why we should not walk blindfolded across a motorway…

        .

      • kannigetMEMBER

        So, not 900… most of the mergers have actually seen a reduction in effectiveness due to a reduction in focus.

        So you found 3 reports from agencies that cover the use of hot water bottles, They publish them because they get blamed if there isnt some guideline and someone gets hurt “again” they get roasted for not doing it. Maybe there are so many guides on the safe use of Hot Water bottles because enough of the general public are stupid enough to burn themselves through misuse and blame the government for not preventing it.

        As for state and federal duplication, Take the so called pink batts debacle. States were and still are responsible for the creation and enforcement of all of the relevant regulations and the federal government were still blamed because they didnt derive and enforce their own set of regulations. If you dont like the duplication then maybe you should yell really loudly when this sort of rubbish occurs otherwise it will get way worse.

        As for the number of pen pushers…there are less public servants now per capita than at any time since federation, yet they have to oversea the implementation of far more legislation. The Public service are an easy target for accusations of laziness and incompetence, just as the poor are. its ironic these accusations come from people too lazy to look beyond their biases.

        And no, I am not a public servant, but I have worked with a lot of them and the majority work their backsides off, running back and forth at the whim of the politicians. Sure there are a fair percentage of grifters in amongst them but no more than in private enterprise in my experience.

        • rob barrattMEMBER

          Detailed reply text not being inserted.
          Partially agree as to some hard working civil servants;
          Doesn’t excuse protecting Vdiot’s jobs;
          Government should not be writing user manuals;
          Lowest number of civil servants – when we have 8 different driving licenses?

        • kannigetMEMBER

          But all of those licences are just facades of a single licence system provides by NSW RMS.

          Don’t blame public servants for the duplications and stupid manuals, blame the people who cause them to happen. The idiots who blame the govet for their own ineptitude and the over reacting politicians who don’t instruct them in the art of fecking off….

          • rob barrattMEMBER

            Rather hard to separate “government” from civil servants. Politicians and senior federal civil servants bear the responsibility for the dog’s dinner of Federal and State governments we now have. I suppose you could lay some of it on the public for not demanding a detailed manifesto from the Rum Corps BEFORE each new lot is elected.

          • kannigetMEMBER

            Yeah, Nah.
            The general public complains all the time about the inefficient public service and then complain when their stupid idea or lack of responsibility is not catered for. Can’t have both solved….

            I hate that the country I love has become a sesspit nanny state but it’s not the politicians fault for making it happen. It’s the voters for accepting it when it comes time to vote.

  16. Melbourne was just first to fail in this suppression strategy, everyone will follow sooner or later.
    Virus like this cannot be eradicated so if we keep this this crazy strategy we can expect lockdowns to be reintroduced every few months forever (based on unlikely success of a vaccine).

        • But we are still refusing to implement obvious solutions: do everything what they did plus protect aged care facilities
          If they did better job when it comes to aged care facilities they woild have had less deaths than us. So we just have to test aged care people and staff daily and provide them with PPE and let virus spread

      • Fifth highest behind hard lockdown countries
        Sweden also has one of the highest rates of collective immunity and the least affected economy

        I’ll ask you about death rates in a year or two when we catch up after dozens of local outbreaks

          • that’s just based on blood antibody studies done so far

            Swiss immunologists led by Professor Onur Boyman published what is probably the most important study on Covid19 lethality to date. This preprint study comes to the conclusion that the usual antibody tests that measure antibodies in the blood (IgG and IgM) can recognize at most one fifth of all Covid19 infections.

            The reason for this discrepancy is that in most people the new coronavirus is already neutralized by antibodies on the mucous membrane (IgA) or by cellular immunity (T-cells). In most of these cases, no symptoms or only mild symptoms develop.
            https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.21.108308v1

            That turns 10% of population with detectable antibodies into 50% of population who have been infected

            The immunologists were able to prove for the first time for Covid-19 that infected people also have antibodies in the mucous membranes.

            Our immune system defends itself against infection with various weapons. In doing so, it forms different antibodies (immunoglobulins). What before the pandemic were common abbreviations only in expert circles could be read again and again in the discussions about antibody tests in recent weeks: IgM, IgA or IgG are the names of the immunoglobulins with which the immune system fights against invaders. They have different abilities, occur at different stages of the infection and above all at different places in the body.

            this means that in many places high level of herd immunity has been gained and that such immunity will not help slow the spread in the future but also make future reinfections mild or asymptomatic.

        • I have skimmed through the article that you link in your post below.

          I can’t pinpoint where the article supports your claim “That turns 10% of population with detectable antibodies into 50% of population who have been infected”. Could you please enlighten me, with appropriate calculations shown, if it is just your interpretation of the data?

          Your omission of a single word substantially changes your claim about immunity to the opposite of what you meant to state; but, never mind, I understand your (relentless) personal position.

          However, the article you refer to actually states this about humoral immunity:
          “Whether these S protein-specific antibody responses confer immunity to a secondary infection with SARS-CoV-2 is a matter of intense debate. Previous publications indicated that S protein-specific serum IgG antibodies correlated with virus neutralization in vitro, although some publications questioned the efficacy of neutralization by these antibody responses.”

          And

          “Another caveat relates to the durability of protective humoral immunity. Whether S protein-specific mucosal IgA responses confer immunity to a secondary infection with SARS-CoV-2 remains to be seen.”

          Lastly, the article seems to indicate that the level of humoral immunity conferred is relative to the severity of clinical symptoms i.e. the more severe the illness, the higher the level of humoral immunity, and vice-versa for asymptomatic infection, as summarised:
          “We think these findings suggest a model where the extent and duration of SARS-CoV-2-related clinical symptoms, which likely correlates with virus replication, dictates the level of virus-specific humoral immunity.”

        • fitzroyMEMBER

          Love Tony Heller, but not sure about the claim of herd immunity for Sweden. I think Dr Campbell above claims exposure for 10% of Swedes

        • kannigetMEMBER

          You cant measure herd immunity because it is only a concept. Its effectively the explanation for why populations that have experienced a large level of infection show a major slowing in the numbers of infections… For one virus it could require 30% of the population, for another it could require 90%. All depends on Transmissibility, infection rates, infectious period and a range of other factors. You can only estimate the “herd immunity” post wide scale outbreak and not before hand, and there is no real evidence it can even be achieved

          The Swedish economy has taken a hit, and not a minor one….but it was always going to regardless.

          The Swedish experience is just on the extreme opposite end of the spectrum to ours, We locked down hard, was “too” effective and now our biggest risk is under exposure. If all of Asia, Europe and the Americas achieve herd immunity we will not be able to open up to trade without risking widespread outbreak.

          The Aim should always have been to minimise the infection rate enough to cope with ICU pressure, but that would require we accept a certain number of deaths and as a society we cant deal with the ethical conundrums around death so that would never have been acceptable.

          The Swedish option created more deaths than were necessary and still didnt protect their economy. Our approach did the opposite….

  17. Recall the list of failures by the security firms contracted by the Victorian State Government to oversee hotel quarantine:
    From my reading of the list, I conclude that the Guards are ordinary people, those quarantined in the hotels are ordinary people. There’s absolutely nothing extraordinary about this list nor the accusations on the list.
    Just ordinary people behaving like ordinary people behave.
    Sure we have a right to be somewhat annoyed that the government is being scammed to pay the wages of nonexistent and untrained guards, but to be honest if that is your biggest gripe than you simply have not been paying attention to the big picture and the larger scams.
    Somewhere along the line we started expecting ordinary people to deliver extraordinary results and that’s what we call delusional.
    Maybe the plan needs to change or maybe it’s just the people that need changing, however we need to always keep in mind that any plan which requires extraordinary results from ordinary people has a failure built into the plan.

    • The Covid crisis has thrown up many conundrums, and ideological positions. The politicisation of death is distressing, so called “Covid death porn”. But there are other dimensions to this, not least the other, less reported Covid porn epidemic. Returning to real science is critical, as is moral and political perspective.
      I learned a new phrase this morning. Covid death porn. I realised right away what it meant. And you might also…

      Read on.
      https://thefreedomsproject.com/item/543-covid-death-porn-and-covid-porn

  18. Martin North interviews Edward Ted J. “Ted” Steele, an Australian molecular immunologist with interests in virology and evolution. He is an honorary research associate at the C.Y.O’Connor ERADE Village Foundation in Piara Waters, WA, Australia.
    Grab some popcorn and watch this brilliant interview.

    https://youtu.be/KwXKzL-yzt8

    • Arthur Schopenhauer

      Steve, a bit over half way he starts talking about viruses arriving by meteorite. Doesn’t pass Occam’s Razor.

      • Yes, I had to pause and reflect on that part.
        There definitely was a meteorite which crashed in October 2019 in Sonjyan City (also called Songyuan) some 2200 km (1360 miles) north of Wuhan, the center of the coronavirus outbreak. What impact, if any, that had on this outbreak remains to be seen.

        • Arthur Schopenhauer

          There are many more plausible explanations.
          Remains to be seen if inter-solar biological material can survive thousands of Celsius of heating upon entering the earths atmosphere?
          The guy is a bs artist, or a useful idiot Steve.

      • kannigetMEMBER

        Occams razor is not a law, its an axiom. You can have an explanation that is valid and accurate that doesn’t pass Occams Razor.

        Historically it was used to defend the idea of the Divine Miracle, and the term “the simplest solution is most likely the right one” actually comes from the practice of explaining something as an act of god not physics, as in ‘God’s will’ was simpler than ‘physics’…

        Hardly a recommendation for Occams Razor to be a foundational principle of reasoning.

        That said he must be Trump level nuts if he thinks mos likely explanation is that a meteorite fell to earth containing the virus, that just happens to be from the same family as a common virus already hear on earth,,,

      • Thank you Arthur. I see it a little differently, in that it’s a facility for researchers to ply their trade.
        The C Y O’Connor Education Research and Development Employment (ERADE) Village Foundation is a charitable Foundation that conducts independent and sponsored research and administers a federally funded technology incubator. The Foundation has available low-cost two-storey R&D studios including accommodation if required, central laboratory facilities, conference rooms, visitor accommodation and sophisticated intranet with broadband connection.

      • lol, an immunologist with interests in virology and evolution, especially parasites like himself. $170 000 for 180 sq metres. Is this peak parasite?

  19. PaperRooDogMEMBER

    Didn’t I see a clip of a bunch of students arriving yesterday?
    Why would they want to come if we are about to turn Wuhan in Feb? Luckily young students by nature don’t do reckless things …

  20. The buck stops with the Cormann anointed narcissist/control freak Slowmo who was happy to have his mug in the media all the time at the start. Next wave comes and we’ve heard crickets from the “National Cabinet”. Ably assisted in the peanut gallery by morons in the Vic Liberals like Tim Smith calling for open borders and opening everything up.

    • Bingo. You won’t heap a peep from Scummo but he will be spewing chunks behind the scenes.

  21. Thats ok, we immune in Aus. Its only young people getting it. The hospital cases are minimal. we can’t close down for a few deaths. Its one big happy party. We have locked down the culprits those housing apartments. we will make sure they all get it and then open it back up. Its all fun