Links 5 June 2020

Global Macro / Markets / Investing:







Leith van Onselen


    • happy valleyMEMBER

      Reusa would be proud? This is taking relo parties to a whole new level?

    • Mining BoganMEMBER

      I’ve only ever known one Ferrari salesman. It was the one interesting thing in his life. All he could talk about on the golf course. Of course by then he was selling second hand Holdens and had lost the ability to count past five.

      Is cheating a prerequisite for the position at Ferrari?

  1. Another Opal, perhaps?

    (From facebook…)

    Hi everyone,
    I just wanted everyone to know what we’ve been through with our recent off-the-plan purchase and am seeking advice on what else we can do.
    We purchased an off-the-plan apartment a few years ago and it’s finally settling – I know, we shouldn’t have ever touched OTP but that’s not something we can change now. Settlement is this month.
    We organised our first property inspection and had to argue to allow us to bring our property inspector to the inspection. They said due to covid-19 he wasn’t allowed in with us (max 4 people inclusive of sales rep and settlement rep), that he should do his own report then they (the vendor) will “put it into an excel spreadsheet” and send it to us. Anyway we won the argument and the report was only sent to us – the people paying for the report.
    The building report came back and along with multiple finishes defects, minor slab cracks and step cracking in the bricks, it also showed large cracks (category 4) in the building basement carpark slab and pole. The building is currently unoccupied and brand new with no weight on it. The inspector said it is a bad building and it is a big and uneasy fix. I cannot stress the importance of having a proper building inspector who called it the next Opal Tower in 2-3 years.
    Our solicitor provided their solicitor with the report and the vendors are denying the claims on the basis that the occupation certificate was granted. There is no way we are settling, but also do not want to lose our 10% deposit. While we will continue this legal battle, in the meantime what else can we do?
    So far we have:
    – Been refused our structural engineer access without going through our solicitors.
    – Reported the assessor to the Building professional board for providing the occupation certificate with clear structural defects.
    – Reported the property to the local council to get the occupation certificate thrown.
    – Reported the property, vendor and assessor to NSW Fair Trading.
    – We also plan to go to the Land and Environment Court once the structural engineer completes the report. Note: If this report proves the inspectors report wrong, then I will gladly retract the actions above.
    Is there anything else I can do?
    I am not looking to name and shame quite yet at it is all currently being investigated. I’m hoping that I can get some sort of good news before the settlement date as I’d like to share the details so that it may help with other potential purchasers. In saying that I’m also hoping one of my other complaints triggers an all-purchaser notification of some sort. I can say that the block of units is in northwest Sydney.
    At this point, my advice to others is:
    – Don’t purchase OTP units. Purchase existing if you want/need a unit.
    – Get your property professionally inspected. I know we wouldn’t have caught this without him.
    Thanks in advance.

    • So don’t settle and sue them for the deposit back or more likely just kiss the deposit goodbye as an expensive lesson.

    • alwaysanonMEMBER

      He just just email the report to all the banks with the headline “Beware of the next Opal/Mascot Tower you might be about to settle people’s loans on – here’s the proof” so that none of their customers can settle as the value of the ‘asset’ securing the loans is questionable. That would have to pretty much destroy the thing/developer while saving all the people right?

      • truthisfashionable

        That is a great idea, all the banks have let slip they have developments that are ‘off limits’ for settlement. So it is likely the report would end up on the right desks.

        Or just go big and loud via their twitter.

    • Gosh!

      Just as well the RBA cut to 0.25% and we blew a massive land bubble and buried hundreds of thousands of families in debt or the AUD might be $1.50!

      Thank goodness so many lunatics demanded that the RBA keep cutting rates as there was simply no alternative.


  2. migtronixMEMBER

    Cold morning in Canberra I’m hearing from twitter buds – pretty cold in Melbourne too but at -3 you guys have the worst misery

    • Lord Winchester EntwhistleMEMBER

      With proximity to both Stromlo and the Alps it’s a bucket load of joy! There’s always Dubai !

    • It’s a nice brisk sunny day. Very refreshing. Crisp frost on the ground in the park. What’s not to like?

    • Feels like temp hit -7 just before 8am. Was going to walk to work with Mrs Nut. Fvck that, see ya sweetie, nice and warm in bed.

  3. Tesla big battery recoups cost of construction in little over two years

    that’s nice but the reason for this super profit is only the fact that this is the first and only (big) battery (could have been bad battery and expensive battery and would still make big profit).
    Once the second one comes onto the market revenue will collapse for both, not by half but rather by 80% or even more

    so the reason for this super profit is not super technology but rather monopoly … and this is not something that should be celebrated by media, it’s something that shows market failure not market success …

    electricity business is natural monopoly and it should be treated like that …

    • Lord Winchester EntwhistleMEMBER

      My good man ! I think you need a breezy afternoon of spectating at a jousting event or hunting pheasant! You seem curmudgeonly at everything! Pray tell is there anything that brings joy to your evidently gloomy existence ?

      • I agree. It is hard to understand how the existence of a second 100MW battery will so completely prevent price spikes from happening on the National grid but it will keep some of the bigger generators from playing some very profitable supply side games

      • I never said that battery didn’t help reduce prices or stop big generators game the fake market
        my point is that the battery made so much only because it had monopoly on the battery market. There was almost no competition on some segments of FCAS market so they were making super profits.

        and sure battery helped stop big generator players to game the market but that could have been done by changing few stupid rules in the market itself. So, just by changing some paperwork rules prices could have fallen even more. our energy market is a complete scam, a fraud on a national scale …
        during ENRON debacle in California some generator prices were jumping from $50 to $1000 but what we have is jumps from $80 to $14k where everyone makes $14k during those exuberance periods even those who bit $50

        and FCAS market … it’s even bigger fraud

        • I don’t get it. This is a somewhat free market in action and working exactly as it should to stabilize prices.
          National Grid Legislative and operating rules were established (agreed upon by the interested parties) with the intention of creating this inbuilt advantage. Forces outside of teh control fos said (Interested parties) have responded with a product (Big Battery) which is just the right size (and design) to jump on any price spike. Sure number two won’t enjoy the same somewhat Monopoly environment but in reality the very existence of the battery stopped the worst of the system gaming so with two or more competitive Batteries arbitraging 100MW of power on 5 minute cycles it will be much harder to both create a supply disruption and simultaneously profit from said disruption. This is a market working exactly as a Market should work and in the process removing the very advantage which legislature and agree operating rules created.

          • This is a somewhat free market in action and working exactly as it should to stabilize prices.
            National Grid Legislative and operating rules were established (agreed upon by the interested parties) with the intention of creating this inbuilt advantage.

            this may be “free” but it’s rigged market. Rules are made by interested parties to maximize their profits and without customers in plain sight …

            why not changing market rules to stop big players gaming the market?
            sounds cheaper than paying someone $20m over 3 months to have battery sitting there mostly unused to achieve the same? That battery could have been more used as plain simple energy storage that would allow more renewables to be connected to the grid instead sitting there charged to prevent big boys from gaming the system?

          • why not changing market rules to stop big players gaming the market?
            If you think you can than go for it, but my experience is that Interested parties almost always create operating rules which favor the most interested parties. Whereas any market with this sort of “free” market arbitraging of advantages doesn’t need to worry about the perfection of operating its rules because any and every advantage is automatically arbitraged.
            Personally I have written a number of market arbitraging algorithms that started out life with zero initial knowledge of the market, all the algorithm’s arbitraging knowledge was developed by simply observing the market. Initially you would think that a person that fully understands the market could do a better job but as it turns out that’s just not the case.
            So today we have a Disruptive technology in the form of Battery Storage which can be applied to prevent market gaming and in my opinion $20M is a small price to pay for this efficacy gain.

    • It’s funny how the msm doesn’t look past the fact they made money to the how and why they made money. I wonder how many investors will do their dosh on new big batteries without the faintest idea of what ancillary services are or how money is made off them…

  4. Second Wave of Covid-19 Infections Hits in Iran

    it’s happening in provinces that didn’t have as many cases in the first wave
    according to serological studies some provinces had infection rate of over 30% and IFR of around 0.1%

    it’s time to get used to coronavirus and threat is like other respiratory infections with the same mortality

      • Pandemic, riots and a incompetent dumb as fvck President. What’s there not to like about this!

      • reusachtigeMEMBER

        Yeah old people need to quarantine themselves from the rest of us who should live their lives normally. But if old people don’t want to quarantine that’s their choice. It may mean more deceased estates available for savvy investors like myself!!

      • Absolute BeachMEMBER

        Nyleta: did you watch the older Swedish epidemiologist interviewed on UnHerd (a YouTube chanel….no idea about credibility of the host but the scientist was very solid).
        The Swede was sanguine that there was not point discussing numbers in year 1, but rather wait 3 or so. His logic was sound. The second, third, etc rounds will be the great leveller. So Sweden looks irresponsible for a short while but then the other Nordics will open up and WuFlu will come to visit them- again, and again. In the end the total fatalities will be close to equal.
        Probably time to stop counting. Just prepare for our new arrival who has come to visit and never going home. Lots of ICU. Lots of training, N95 masks, etc.

        • because years of experience in dealing with covid, (detection/optimising treatment etc) gained by the other countries.. will do nothing to reduce mortality.

          makes total sense. Dr X will be pleased with the prospect of dead bodies everywhere.

          • dead bodies everywhere? seriously, people dropping dead on the streets and public transport? must be very scary disease …

            reality is quite different:
            median age of people dying from coronavirus in Sweden is 86 – so dead bodies are exactly where they would have been without coronavirus.

            Also, according to CDC and many other studies IFR is somewhere around 0.1% to 0.2% for general population
            for those up to 50 IFR is 0.01% and those between 50 and 65 is 0.05% (normal mortality rate for those age groups is 0.2% and 1% respectively so covid changes a chance of someone under 65 dying as much as the person starting to drink one more glass of wine a week)
            even for people between 70 and 80 IFR of covid19 is below 2% while the chance of them dying within a year without covid is over 3%

            so what Sweden achieved is same or less deaths as Scotland, Belgium, … and many other hard lockdown countries without destroying economy, democracy and mental health of the nation
            based on number of deaths and best IFR rates Sweden is close to have 50% of population gaining immunity

      • @nyleta
        those numbers are not telling the whole truth … two reasons:
        1. there was an increase of excess deaths but the charts only show absolute numbers. 80k excess deaths in USA for 5 months is 5% increase relative to normal 1.4m deaths in first 5 months of the year. So numbers need to be relative to the size and structure of the population
        2. covid19 mostly affected people who were very old and very sick so effectively moved some deaths a bit forward. What that means is that there can expect less deaths in the rest of the year or next year. Many countries in Europe that look so bad on these charts. all hard hit countries like Italy, France, … are seeing in last few weeks significantly less death then normally

        at the end of the year, excess deaths are going to be very small and not larger than usual variations between years (e.g. death rate in USA grew by 1.1% in 2019 relative to 2018 )

    • Blottridesagain

      No way mate….Single Boomer occasionally hanging around dating sites out of boredom mostly but…..Anyway all the women ‘love travel’ and if you don’t well don’t bother applying. If you think that you might not be able to afford it – well….you are just a stupid schmuck (One of Reusa’s losers) ! There’s no question they are entitled to it and are going to get it (Travel!!!) 🙂 I can’t just figure out whether it’s their RE investment, their Govt super, or th pension that is going to pay for it – but they are going to have it.

      • Really? but minus matching men, are the women just doing it for themselves? or how does it work out?
        Carnival toy-boys? BYO toys? share toys? Yuck!
        Port side Rent-a-boy?

  5. Karl Friston: up to 80% not even susceptible to Covid-19 … Lockdown TV

    Professor Karl Friston is a computer modelling expert, world-renowned for his contributions to neuroscience. He has been applying his “dynamic causal modelling” approach to the Covid-19 pandemic, and has reached some startling results.

    – The differences between countries are not primarily down to government actions, but due to ‘intrinsic’ differences in the populations … VIEW & READ more via hyperlink above …

    • one doesn’t have to be scientist and see that being the case
      lust look at few obvious examples :
      – Sweden (no measures) vs Scotland (hard lockdowns) and Scotland has more deaths per million
      – North Italy (Milan) vs. South Italy (Napoli or Rome) – Milan had early and hard lockdowns, Napoli cannot even get rubbish off the streets and yet Napoli had almost no covid while Milan got smashed
      – Uruguay vs Argentina: Argentina closed borders early and introduced strict lockdowns, Uruguay introduced only some measures and later. Argentina (mostly Buenos Aires just across the river from Uruguay) has more cases in a day than all of Uruguay in three months

    • imagine if there is any scientist even half good as this one who would be able to come out with any evidence to support the idea that government measures did make much difference beside destroying the economies and hurting public health