Links 4 June 2020

Global Macro / Markets / Investing:





Leith van Onselen


  1. Was there someone complaining in yesterdays comments that MB only had non business stuff now & could be identified by Guardian, SMH & some other loser journal, so therefore they ditched their membership or something like that? I just scanned the above & seems there’s a fair bit of diverse samples of “Journals” from varied sectors of the world to look at. Not so much Guardian & SMH. Or did I miss the point of the comment? Probably did – I got told today by a Bank (W) that I was in a “vulnerable” age category to scammers; so right now I am a bit flakey & upset. My daughters got into me a said “you need to calm down….”. LOL.

    • Blottridesagain

      Two things
      1. Your take probably reflects the diversity of your reading
      2. I DO note some extra additions TODAY in the Australian section. Brisbane Times and Conversation???? CNN is some conservative think tank?
      There are other thoughts going on in the world although followers of the dedicated fashion of MB would not know that. That’s also why there is so much dribble and obscenity that passes for commentary.

    • The Penske FileMEMBER

      There’s a bit more of a mix today but lately I’ve noticed a lot of Guardian and ABC guff.

      • There seems to be a widespread presumption on mb that people are unable to locate and use more than one news aggregator site. Must be one of the universal human rights that I was unaware of: the right to click on one news aggregator and get all the links that I might be interested in. Or perhaps it’s just more pearl clutching.

        • Blottridesagain

          This was an attack on me for not subscribing to this site. I replied why I don’t – basically it is just a distinctly left leaning political site as illustrated by the narrow choice of Links. Economic writers like DE and DT left years ago.
          Now, that’s fine. MB can do that. it’s their site. There are really rally good business and economic blogs that could be listed but the site is what it is and designed to attract what it attracts. It is just of no practical use to me whatsoever except for the contributions of a few commenters like Dominic, bcnich, pfh, Sweeper and a few others. You’ll notice that real commenters with something to offer disappear over a relatively short time.
          Again, I emphasise, this site is owned and run by people who need to make a profit and the particular political bent that they wish to promote is their business. However, from a business viewpoint, both from that of attracting a variety of subscribers and from the aspect of providing useful information, one would think a wider source of Links would be a good idea – but that’s just my opinion. I do put a bit of effort into discussion but that looks more and more pointless.
          This doesn’t have to be anyone else’s opinion. It’s just mine.

    • your vunerablilty to scammers depends on your credit card details, some are less secure than others.. let me know what you’ve got and I can let you know if you’re safe or not.

  2. New Zealands coronavirus response: The lunatic elimination strategy … and emerging commercial carnage …

    … Did the Ardern Labour – led government consider the social, economic and commercial carnage, with its gullible response and panicked political decision – making, in sadly being influenced by Prof Neil Ferguson of Imperial College seriously flawed modelling ? …

    … How did this happen ? …

    Almost half of retail tenants have not paid their May rent – new report … Marta Steeman … The Press / Stuff NZ–new-report

  3. I don’t think the take up on Scotty and Josh’s Homebuilder scheme will be significant. Certainly not anything to save the economy from recession.

    I could be wrong, but it just doesn’t seem like anyone who wasn’t planning on undertaking a build/renovation anyway (and who is under the income thresholds and meets the minimum 150k spend) would be compelled to do so simply on the basis now that this scheme is here.

    It’s just a gift to whomever fits into the requirements and was going to build/renovate regardless. Reports and anecdotes of tradies being under the pump through COVID-19 anyway (including a mate of mine), the grant is likely to simply allow the construction industry and big developers to tack it onto prices.

    Maybe some franking credit boomers (FCBs) will do some renovations to their homes or IPs. I can’t see anyone else being compelled if they didn’t have existing plans already.

    • Lord Winchester EntwhistleMEMBER

      150k is much too high.

      50k with a requirement the owners contribute at least 60% or something like that – bathrooms kitchen AC removal solar PV plus battery thermal efficiency improvements etc etc

    • happy valleyMEMBER

      But, but it’s a nice little rort for tradies and renovators, so it’s just a continuation of Straya’s never-ending gifts that keep on giving. How good is Straya.

    • IPs will not qualify
      so yes, wealthy boomers with artificial low income (thanks to our glorious tax system) will be able to add a wine cellar to their already planned renos

      • Limit on the value of properties of $1.5M For renos. Not sure many boomers living in their PPOR under $1.5M would have a spare 150k to throw at renos unless they were already planning to.
        Suspect it is going to have a limited impact.

    • truthisfashionable

      The build part is the biggest concern. If it acts like the FHOG it will be leveraged rather than just the $ amount.

      I would also be concerned about signing up to a new build without doing due diligence on the builders financials, I am hearing that ‘enough to be of concern’ are surviving on jobkeeper right now.

    • I want to build a garage/workshop and have about $70k set aside for it, but this grant will not help me unless I decide to borrow $100k+. Which may be required for the garage I want, but without a job I don’t intend to borrow anything further. So it’s just another example of how this Government dolls out money and I miss out, weather it be stamp duty exemptions or JobSeeker/Keeper, I seem to never quite meet the requirements. I hate the Liberals 🙂

    • Companion piece –

      No, I mean, that’s ridiculous. You know, you remember, Sister Amy — and I love and respect you so — that antifa saved my life in Charlottesville. There’s no doubt about it, that they provided the security, you see. So the very notion that they become candidates for a terrorist organization, but the people who were trying to kill us — the Nazis, the Klan — they’re not candidates for terrorist organization status — but that’s what you’re going to get. You’re going to get a Trump-led neofascist backlash and clampdown on what is going on. We ought to be very clear about that. The neofascism has that kind of obsession with militaristic imposition in the face of any kind of disorder. And so we’ve got to be fortified for that.

      But most importantly, I think we’ve got to make sure that we preserve our own moral, spiritual, quality, fundamental focus on truth and justice, and keep track of legalized looting, Wall Street greed; legalized murder, police; legalized murder abroad – snip

      Then some will suggest its the Fed, Keynesian’s, commie socialists, or far away peoples ….

    • Arthur Schopenhauer

      I’ve met quite a few of them over the years. Shrewd as foxes in a hen house. Some of them were outwardly venal.

    • Someone else has met The Beetrooter, and legend has it that he didn’t just look like a grubby f*cker either.

  4. Arthur Schopenhauer

    The Gov Home Builder grant will be eaten by inflated trade & material prices. The grant is 14% of the minimum renno spend.

  5. Arthur Schopenhauer

    A set of solar panels and battery costs around $25,000, but the country doesn’t make either.
    Just say’n.

  6. New Zealand …

    Coronavirus: Jetstar planning return of NZ domestic services following months of hibernation … John Anthony … Stuff NZ

    … extract …

    … Jetstar now appears to be preparing for a return to New Zealand skies with fares from Auckland, Wellington, Christchurch, Queenstown and Dunedin available from July 1, including Auckland to Wellington for as little as $34. … read more via hyperlink above …

  7. Jim's Central Banking

    -The Federal Reserve announced on March 23 that it would start direct purchases of corporate debt—an unprecedented rescue of corporate America.
    -Since then, the stock market has risen over 30 percent, corporate bond funds have recovered, and companies have saved tens of billions in borrowing costs.
    -Thanks to this massive government subsidy, large companies like Boeing and Carnival Cruises were able to avoid taking money directly—and sidestep requirements to keep employees on—by instead issuing bonds.
    -The Intercept and The American Prospect have identified 49 companies that issued corporate debt since March 23, adding up to hundreds of billions they otherwise couldn’t have secured so cheaply—providing a safety net to the investor class and making a mockery of the alleged virtues of free-market capitalism.
    -This sets the stage for companies with functionally no revenue path in the near future to take on mounds of additional debt—and could set the stage for a series of defaults.

  8. So not M2 expansion per se, but targeted corporate largesse.

    Edit – reply to Jim’s CB

  9. migtronixMEMBER

    Bloody traffic is definitely back in Melbourne CBD. Loads of peeps on Elizabeth & Swanston too.

    Trams are packed again. FFS!

    George Floyd autopsy report released; he tested positive for COVID-19 in April
    Also disclosed by the report was that Floyd tested positive for COVID-19 in early April, although the autopsy did not cite that as a factor in his death.

    but the lady, 93 that died month after being tested positive and had no symptoms for weeks since tested positive was definitely a covid victim

    • George did say he had trouble breathing..

      She said her mother had tested positive to COVID-19 on day 10 of the home’s lockdown, which began mid-April.
      “Mum fought hard to stay with us … but up until two weeks ago she was a happy and busy lady inside and outside of Newmarch,” she said.

      so mid April + 10 days means she was infected for 5-6 weeks before dying, going downhill after 3-4 weeks. Seems legit that the virus took her out.