Links 2 June 2020

Global Macro / Markets / Investing:





Leith van Onselen


  1. bobby bouygues

    The Morrison house price put

    Wonder whether it will work? Or just pumping new build supply in to bigger eventual crash? Either way, pissing taxpayer money up against the wall…..

  2. happy valleyMEMBER

    So, Bill Evans, the other angel of death for savers, is urging the chief angels of death for savers, the RBA happy clappies, to take interest rates for savers negative, so that they can truly subsidise private banksters’ lending bloopers?

    • Savers. Haha. It’s a new world. Why are savers so entiteled to an income. There is a world pandemic but we must protect savers rights.

      • happy valleyMEMBER

        Nah – only rights protected are of happy clappies, excess franking credit refund zero taxpayer leaners, bank boards and senior management, and stitched up borrowers. Dr Mengele would be proud of economists and their experiments with the financial system.

      • Guess what Col
        If you don’t have savings(capital), you don’t have capitalism and you don’t have a job.

        • migtronixMEMBER

          And if all you have is savings and no-one spends, what then Ath? BTW must be getting close to your wedding anniversary – what’s it been now, 80 years?

          • Blottridesagain

            Yes. Much better to have lots of debt to something like the CCP and to sell all your worthwhile assets to them to pay for the trinkets.

    • I’m no longer a saver, just an asset hoarder. These geniuses are destroying savings and savers as I assumed they would. Hence why I didn’t hold much wealth in FIAT.

  3. Independent autopsy finds that George Floyd’s death “was homicide caused by asphyxia due to neck and back compression that led to a lack of blood flow to the brain.”

  4. Properties for rent in Australia went from 94,000 at the start of Covid-19 up to 99,990 last couple of weeks.

    It has now crashed down to 93,000 ? So – LESS than what it was before the lock down.

    For sale has stabilised around 248k – up from 246k

    I think we are about to see an absolute tidal wave of for sale listings over the next few weeks.

    I’ll put it to you this way – we are in our 40’s and rent – huge salary, close to 300k – and will be moving back in with our parents and two kid. Put simply can not get above water through cost of living. We could buy a house in point cook or Yea or something for 600k but we live and work in and around inner northern suburbs. Can not buy a “liveable” house in Melbourne for less than $1.2 Million dollars. It would be possible to purchase something that needs to be bulldozed and rebuilt from scratch for around $800k . But we could never afford the rebuild phase.

    Almost everyone we know in our age bracket and wage is leaving Melbourne. There are – no younger people left.

    • True dat
      We left in 2011 – income 200k no kids – thought 800k in sandy was high – could have Afforded it and would be laughing now

      Income now 130 ish 2 kids and regional nsw single income no extravagant travel or expenses and comfy – would not like to be on less

      Mortgage 430ish until July then renting

      • I told my partner last night they were talking about $50k home buyer and maybe $40k renovators scheme – she started crying at the realization they will do anything to keep house prices going up. She asked how can they hand tens of thousands of dollars to people to build a “wine cellar” when there is a 15 year wait for emergency housing ? I told her we need to leave Melbourne and it finally sunk in.

        We are overseeing two of Victorias biggest projects and reporting directly to Ministers – we could afford to buy this house – but could not renovate it for another ten years. There is literally no point in living in Melbourne. Traffic is ridiculous, everything too expensive to enjoy, housing totally unaffordable, horrible life style.

      • drsmithyMEMBER

        Certainly puts the half of households making under about $90k/yr in perspective, doesn’t it ?

    • Yep, it is a massive case of those in already pumping up the market and their own assets in a reflexive loop.

      Not only do they refuse to allow it to deflate during the better times, they also spend other people’s taxes to pump it during the risky times.

      For many, mostly younger Australians (bulk of income taxes from actual labour), they are taking money from you by force to maintain a bubble that is likely the biggest impingement to you and your family to achieving a better quality of life.

      Some may say this is a first world problem if you are currently able to rent but no one can deny the long term wealth destruction these deliberate policies are having on future generations of would-be Australian homeowners.

      How long until the scales tip and there are more ‘out’ than ‘in’ and we can vote this economic vandalism out?

      Now we are paying for their f***ing bathroom makeovers!

    • That’s alright bud, you do whatever makes you happy. It’s a free country.

      But for every reluctant/entitled person who refuses to buy a house, we’ll import two or three complaint persons who will be glad to buy a house.

      • No doubt. But it is not a ‘free’ country in this sense. What economist in their right mind would endorse taking money by force from one group to prop up the bubble of another in an asset that adds zero real productitvity value to the economy as a whole?

        Whomever suggested and endorsed the reno-bate policy at Federal Treasury(?) is an economist who can’t dig themselves out of the hole they have made or who is politically compromised; or both.

        Equally, who wouldn’t resent being on the wrong side of this crap for several decades?

        • LOL.
          Don’t whinge about tax paid. Revel in it. It is the price of civil society.
          Any income you receive is a government tax break anyway.

      • Rorke's DriftMEMBER

        Take a population of 20million. Endow them with the greatest mineral resources in the world. The lucky country. What do they do.
        Dumb Australia decides its best future strategy is to double its population over a few decades thereby halving its natural wealth per head. in order to leverage up the price of houses we sell each other. Trash its cities with congestion, strain its water and environment, dissipate its culture. Then sit back and read knuckleheads on MB comments section cheering on the great housing wealth. Govt even gives you a new bathroom or back deck. At least the boomers who’s votes drove this shtshow can retire in comfort up the coast somewhere and tut tut about the leaners.

      • Display NameMEMBER

        At some point peachy the whole sorry edifice will be unsupportable. It will collapse under its own hubris. It is not a sustainable path. Might be 6 months, might be three years. Mortgages cannot get appreciably bigger from here, interest rates have no where to go, wages will not move based on migration rates and structure of the economy. Private debt is at levels that kills discretionary spending. All the signs were there before covid/drought/fires.

        Not in a hurry myself. I work in industrial automation, software side. I will sit on the sidelines and watch the slow motion train wreck.

        • Well, as a nerd you probably have one of those great racing-seat computer chairs to watch from. Which is good – you need a comfortable chair if you’re going to be in it for a while.

    • Get out buddy. We moved an hour out of Melbourne CBD. Took a little getting used to but eventually it becomes normal. Extra cash and when this virus hit it made us wonder why we ever wanted to live close to the city anyway. If your buying for an invest the get land, 5 acres, 20 acres, 100 acres it doesn’t matter how far out you are. People won’t want to live on top of each other and having space between your neighbors is gold.

    • don’t worry about number of rental property nominally falling on REA or domain, reality is still different

      rental market is getting so bad that even Meriton is advertising some of their best performing serviced apartments for long term rental. There are two ads (one for 1bdr and one for 2bd unit) but they have over 150 units in that building

      These were going for over 200 per night … Now fully furnished 2 bdr is 700 per week including all of the utilities and two weeks free – this is equivalent to 620-630 per week for fully furnished 2 bdr unit. In building next door Meriton has been renting 2 bdr empty units for 760 in February.

    • From where I sit $300K pa ain’t what it used to be.

      Sounds great by ‘community standards’, but as you rightly point out you can barely put a roof over your head, are restricted from saving for your retirement and have bugger all options when it comes to avoiding extortionate tax bills.

      A tradie mate of mine on just over half that lives a far better lifestyle, purely through the ability to earn cash, dodge the taxman and keep the income below welfare thresholds.

      It’s even worse when like my family it is earned by a single breadwinner. And they reckon inflation over the past two decades has been insignificant.

    • Yes mate, its complete bollocks when someone who earns good money cannot afford unless leveraged 10x. I guess it our fault for being born 10-20 years too late.

      I was lucky and bought in 2013 and sold 5 years later for a good profit. Could see the writing on the wall and sold at the peak. The house has stagnated or gone slightly backwards on price so glad I made the call.

      Correction will come, it always takes longer than any of us had hoped because it still amazes me how many stupid people exist in society.

    • I can empathize with your feeling and position. In Sydney I was on similar income but paid nearly $100k to the tax man last year in income tax. $53k went on stamp duty when I bought and the rest went between a new (20 year old car) and entertainment + house deposit.

      I looked at a lot of crap houses in Melbourne before deciding to move further out for something better.

      My brother and his wife went to Healesville and bought basically outright at $550k and love it there. They seem happier than ever. I think moving out of Sydney and Melbourne is the way to go.

  5. Kinda sums up the neoliberal perspective and how its playing out:

    WASHINGTON, April 11 (UPI) — U.S. forces should not be blamed for the lawlessness and looting in Baghdad as it is a natural consequence of the transition from a dictatorship to a free country, Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld said Friday at the Pentagon.

    “The task we’ve got ahead of us now is an awkward one … It’s untidy. And freedom’s untidy. And free people are free to make mistakes and commit crimes and do bad things. They’re also free to live their lives and do wonderful things. And that’s what’s going to happen here,” Rumsfeld said.

    Its all about freedom ….

    • People freely protesting in Hong Kong is a sign of authoritarian regime which must be isolated from the world. People being put under curfew, shot and killed in America is great.

      Cognitive dissonance is the only reality from selective bias.

        • Chairman MeowMEMBER

          How long ago was Tianiman square alleged to have happened? Did HK send in the tanks? Did HK send in the army like DLS/LVO assured us was “imminent”? Did HK governor threaten to shoot rioters like Trump? What was the bodycount from the HK protests compared to the weekly death toll in USA from cop violence?

          • In a way your right Meow. Tianiman was so long ago. But what would to government response be in China if they protested like they are in the US?

          • What’s the population of the USA compared with HK, and how many guns are there in the USA compared with HK? There are about 1000 police killings per year in the USA, it’s probably less than died during the HK protests adjusted for population.

          • Chairman MeowMEMBER

            Col, like trashing and vandalising subway stations and other public infrastructure like they did in Hong Kong? And nobody got shot? What would be the response in the USA genius?

          • Chairman MeowMEMBER

            @ The Senate, can you tell me how many did die during the HK protests then?

      • really believe that? How do you think protesters would be if they went at master Xi place of residences. Maybe your just trolling but if your not I can tell you that this inability to see what’s really happening in to world maybe a reason you haven’t got a house yet.

        • Chairman MeowMEMBER

          Hey Col how did those protestors at the White House the other day go? Did Trump respect their right to protest? Invite them for a beer and a chat?

  6. Hill Billy 55MEMBER

    Well SFM is trying something different, you’ve got to give him credit for that, Shirley?

  7. Something interesting to see:
    Argentina covid19 situation …
    It started early, and at the same time and speed as in hard hit countries around Brazil, Chile and Peru (in late March they all had couple of k cases)
    Argentina introduced hard measures – tight lockdown around the same time we did and it looked measures worked, for a month they had very low transmission (number of cases was doubling in almost 20 days) and by the end of April they had less cases than we did and only twice as many deaths (this is due to lower testing but based on deaths it was all fine). Brazil and Peru had 5 or 10 times more cases and deaths. Large majority of Argentinian cases are in Buenos Aires
    They even started thinking about relaxation of measures … but than in mid May something happened and spread exploded … now number of cases now doubles in 10 days, with no changes in lockdown that has been extended until mid June

    this might be coincidence but just around the same time winter started in Buenos Aires, and also small particle pollution increased …

  8. Chairman MeowMEMBER

    LOL. Loving the total absence of news on the USA riots. So much for “let China burn”

  9. Interested PartyMEMBER

    Another instalment on the legacy media’s bullshlt propaganda tricks….
    This one is msnbc playing the live feed fear push….omg….it’s all burning.
    One small issue…….the shown LIVE footage is “cut” from the World War Z official trailer. How thick are these people? How stupid do they thing we all are?
    Seeing is believing.
    We. Are. Being. Played.

    • ChinajimMEMBER

      Qanon? Are you serious? You are posting a link to a Qanon site on MB?

      Eyes roll out of head.

      This comment section has really gone down hill over the last few years. I suppose that’s just the nature of the internet combined with homo sapiens. Can’t wait to get back in to some wilderness area with no connectivity for a FEW MONTHS.


      • Blottridesagain

        IP posts a fact. You don’t like the fact. Understandable I guess as it doesn’t follow the narrow minded BS that passes in here for discussion.
        If his ‘fact’ is wrong point out how it is wrong – but that’s not the way of MB – just throw out abuse and obscenity – that ALWAYS makes you sound intelligent.

      • We’ve seen everything except flat-earthers. And I wouldn’t be surprised if there are a few of those lurking about.

        • The Traveling Wilbur

          There was at least one. Random username. Very unmemorable. But their comment on that subject was the trigger for me discovering how much ‘science’ there is out there to prove it’s real. A real rabbit hole.

          • It is a hoot. Gravity is a real head scratcher. As are satellite orbits, which take into account the shape of the earth and gravity.

    • Totally hear ya on the media IP. Everytime I watch the news, it gets totally fvcked up by the appearance of this orange sh1tgibbon talking sh1t. Enough to make youse riot.

      • Interested PartyMEMBER

        Sit tight….only 4.5 years left to go then you can enjoy the tube again.

    • Interested PartyMEMBER

      Well, looks like I was 9 minutes too early…read keen… post that image; as a corrected post confirming it as false arrived after I had sent it off. Kudos to the person who trolled so many, so well. It has been a running battle between us and the media for several years and they finally had a win…albeit only 9 minutes…but there you go. Actually surprised it took this long to catch us out.

      Oh well fellas….enjoy the chance to hammer me, I don’t blame you one bit.
      I will double my efforts to bring you quality complaints in the future.

  10. Another news:

    In a paper published in the journal Thorax, a team of Australia researchers described the first instance of complete COVID-19 testing of all passengers and crew on an isolated cruise ship during the current pandemic: of the 217 passengers and crew on board, 128 tested positive for COVID-19 on reverse transcription-PCR; of the COVID-19-positive patients, only 24 (19%) were symptomatic.

    more than 4 out of 5 cases are asymptomatic

    And they claim this is the lowest range estimate because there were large number of false negative tests so they think there were more asymptomatic cases. Also trip lasted for three weeks so some asymptomatic people may have recovered as well to test negative.

    Using CDC best estimate for symptomatic fatality rate of 0.4%
    we can easily derive that infection fatality rate is less than 0.08% – less than seasonal flu in an average year

    this is in line with Diamond Princess where IFR was around 0.1% when age adjusted and in line with many serological studies done so far

    • First Amendment

      Mate no one is listening

      The people here are too stupid to understand facts and logic

      • I know, people are too distracted by ideologies

        none cares if they get scared to death and put into an arbitrary detention and financially ruined based on false science
        but they will all go out and protest about something meaningless like isolated instances of hate speech (in case of fake left) or few foreign students arriving (fake left) …

        My duty is to post the truth and if they want to ignore it … well, that’s much bigger problem

  11. Comment BTL in The Oz:
    I was an Industry Observer to the mid-1980s comprehensive Federal Government review of immigration policy. Prof Peter Dixon and team with the Orani model were economic advisers. The modelling indicated that higher net immigration was economically better for Australia. I asked for the data that the export coefficient of immigrants was based on and was told there was none, it was just a judgement call – although this was the key data input given the critical role of exports/capita in determining the eonomic cost/benefits. Nevertheless, the results were presented on this basis and high immigration was deemed good for Australia!
    So, as a Chief Economist/senior executive I commissioned the Orani team to do sensitivity tests of a range of export coefficient scenarios. The results (which were published by Orani/MU) showed the net economic benefit of immigrants was higher sensitive to this factor and for many of the values the economic outcome was negative.
    I have never seen this analysis done properly, but high immigration increases GDP (not GDP/capita – which is the key problem with high immigration) and politicians are reluctant to loose the easy “benefits” of this con game!

    • Blottridesagain

      Exports? Who the hell needs exports – that’s just old hat economics – you’re 60 years behind the times. We don’t need no damned exports or savings. We just need negative interest rates to stimulate the spending by all the migrants. Selling resource and key industry assets is the same as exports. We’re really good at that and we must still have plenty of them left…we think.

    • Serge UpwardsMEMBER

      Normally hate Pascoe, but he has nailed it there, the real kudos should go to Michael West though. The LNP, blatantly buying votes in broad daylight and nobody seems to give a rats ar$e !

  12. If mentally-ill Trump decides to deploy the army against the american people, many high ranking elements simply wont obey. Then we’ll have some fireworks.

    • he’ll never do that, he is not even able to do that because states are sovereign and military can be deployed only if invited by state governments
      what he wants is to look like he wanted to help make people safe from protesters

    • Rorke's DriftMEMBER

      Easy enough to sit at safe distance and throw rocks. What would you do.