Links 28 May 2020

Global Macro / Markets / Investing:





Leith van Onselen



    Worth a read
    Current CDC COVID modelling

    5 scenarios
    Scenarios 1-4 use different theoretical values for key variables
    Scenario 5 uses current CDC best estimates for these variables

    Current best estimates:
    1. R0 = 2.5

    2. Symptomatic case fatality rate is age stratified. But overall = 0.4%.

    3. % of asymptomatic infections = 35% (which will reduce the infection mortality rate to 0.3%)

    4. Infectiousness of asymptomatic individuals relative to symptomatic = 100% (ie no difference)

    5. Percentage of transmission prior to symptom onset = 40%

    6. Incubation period = 6 days.

    Lots of other data re healthcare usage.

    • Mark Hardwood

      Who would genetically engineer something modestly more deadly than the regular flu? Seems pretty lame. Plus, it can’t mutate, so after one serious season it will die off when everyone has antibodies.


        So not the market after all.
        It was getting increasingly difficult to purport it came out of the market in December when the first cases in China had no contact with this market, and when a case turned up in Paris in a guy who had not travelled overseas (ie community transmission was occurring in Paris in December).

        It’s not a weapon. At least not in the usual sense of the word. As you say, the kill rate is too low.

        But it is a very strange virus. That has appeared at a very strange time in global politics. That has severely impacted Europe and USA.

        • Definitely an odd 1. I wonder why China is so defensive about understanding it’s origin..

          • Well China sure doesn’t want everyone else to understand.

            But I think China already knows all there is to know.

          • China’s actions and words never seemed to fit. The words were nothing too much to see here carry on while they aggressively locked down and policed 15 million people.

          • reusachtigeMEMBER

            Well it attacks and destroys your balls. That’s a biggie right there!

          • Blottridesagain

            Info came to me out of China suggesting deaths understated by a factor of 30 to 50.

          • Yep. There was a series of bad news releases from China right as rest of world started to get a handle on true epidemiology.
            Reports of lots of extra cremation urns being delivered.
            Revision 50% increase in Wuhan deaths
            Reports of new outbreaks in far flung provinces (but never Beijing or Shanghai)
            Reports of a new strain circulation.

            Sure the virus is bad and kills. Mainly the elderly.
            But it kills more from lack of immunity than because it kills a high %

            Was this a sheep in wolfs clothing?
            Psyops?? If so, highly effective.

            Right as rest of the world was starting to suppress and even wondering if they had locked down unnecessarily, all sorts of bad news comes out of china.

        • I wouldn’t be at all surprised if it is/was a virus developed to do something beneficial, cure cancer, cure the common cold …i dont know what but I suspect there are clues especially wrt some of the unusual Immune responses that are occurring in children and young adults.
          Imagine you had some virus that you had tested extensively (on younger people) and it was completely benign (but highly infectious) now maybe it carries something beneficial such as to eliminate Auto-immune diseases (many of which are believed to be virus triggered) . What would you do when it started spreading but was found to be deadly to people older than 60? Think about it, how would you have ever known that it was deadly to the elderly, until the virus got out of the lab?

      • fitzroyMEMBER

        Anti-personnel mines were designed to maim but not kill. Caused more economic harm by urgent evacuation, treatment, rehabilitation and care. Biological equivalent?

      • but if the disease engineering had other components like spreading false information about mortality (4% vs. real 0.4% or 0.2%), about the spread, about age groups affected, … than making low mortality disease that first hits a creator sounds like a perfect plan

        • Yes. Lots of dramatic video. Gets the words attention but appears manageable. Then Italy happens.

          China seemed to recognise very quickly how to contain this. They imposed history’s greatest ever quarantine locally. And complained at much less drastic quarantine measures imposed by rest of the world.

          If you wanted to impose economic carnage globally, it’s hard to see how you could do much better than this.

          Look at global economies. “Follow the money”

          • or they didn’t have many cases in Wuhan at all but staged most of the imagery and send few hundred asymptomatic “tourists” to few villages in Italy where everybody knows many very old people live

          • Lots of direct flights from Wuhan to Italy. Chinese workers making all those “Made in Italy” clothes

            China Southern alone had 55 direct flights between these 2 cities every month.

    • pretty lousy assumptions for the best guess.
      By now there are numerous examples confirming asymptomatic cases are more frequent and definitely less contagious, especially at younger age. Also based on the most complete data infection fatality rate is also likely to be lower than 0.4% (0.4% is the worst case estimate for Bergamo assuming twice as many died than reported and where so many very old people live, where hospitals got overwhelmed, and people were turned away to die at home).

      • ….or perhaps spread complacency, to soften up the population for a knockout punch later (with a different weaponised virus)!

        • billygoatMEMBER

          Population already soft in the head same place where CV19 resides …in the mind..just zayin …seven lonely nights I cried and I cried for you. Oh my darling I’m crying (with lduping delight) colour your world with the colour machine called ….today’s episode brought to you by the folk behind the green door….T Av…pray to dog for internet nutters.

      • Asymptomatic May be 35% overall among the cases we found.
        But asymptomatic is more common in young.
        And the young will tend to spread it mostly to the young – who again will be more often asymptomatic.

      • That is why they used symptomatic case fatality rate – not IFR.
        But with a SCFR of 0.4% and an asymptomatic rate of 35%, the IFR drops to 0.3%. Drops even further if asymptomatic rate is higher.

        • Presumably an enquiry will consider all sorts of awkward issues. Like where it came from now China itself has confirmed it wasn’t from the market.

    • This issue just shows who is really running Britain, and it ain’t the Prime Minister.

      • haroldusMEMBER

        I have to admit I was slightly shocked when an unelected aide was allowed to do a presser from the No. 10 garden.

        Both things are pretty much unheard of.

        • Not so different from stooge Twiggy wheeling out his paymaster & gazumping Greg Hunt to give us a dressing down not so long ago. BAU already it seems.

    • happy valleyMEMBER

      And remember didn’t he tell us, we’re all in this together and it’s Team Straya?

    • as per REGISTER OF MEMBERS’ INTERESTS he doesn’t have any IP, he never had (at least since MP) – he doesn’t appear to be true believer into property dream, just taking opportunity to make money from side industries … LOL
      or maybe he is waiting for prices to halve to get low entry point

      Reality is that, now, after bailing out banks via unlimited junk bond purchases by RBA and after coronavirus provided more than good enough scapegoat, neither he nor big boys have any interest to save house prices while they may have huge interest in getting prices collapse.

      If prices go down by 50% none will be able to blame ScoMo or LNP, banking industry will get another decade or two to play the same game all over again, big boys will get a chance to enter the housing market at a big discount, …

      What would be their interest in saving house prices?

        • Blottridesagain

          If 90% of pollies, who have been there for more than one term, don’t own multiple properties one form or another I’ll walk to Bourke and back!

        • he is not a beneficiary and he has little kids so maybe but unlikely there would be much in it … after all he has a boomer mentality despite missing being part of the crowd by few years

      • Blottridesagain

        For the pollies? – Get elected again?
        For the Banks – Man a $10M bonus is not the same in 10 years as we getting one now?
        The better question might be – what is the Star Chamber thinking?

        • corona destroyed the economy not him but he managed to save tens of thousands of lives – he can easily get reelected
          as per banks … $10m bonus is peanuts to $10b in dividends going to big boys … making sure dividend bonanza continues for another decade or two is way more important … remember …our bank CEOs are puppets who work for a wage …

    • happy valleyMEMBER

      Does News actually have journos? Aren’t they just defacto robots churning out the house view? A few vibrants could probably do the same job and cheaper?

    • Blottridesagain

      Get a job at the ABC Guaranteed you will never get the sack no matter how toxic or stupid you are. Guaranteed pay rises. Sprout all your own particular fantasies all day and night while getting paid.
      Most importantly, get to look down with disdain on the huddled masses

  2. “The macroeconomics of government debt needs to be revisited. The orthodoxy that we economists have been preaching since the 80s… just hasn’t worked.” – @StLouisFed’s Jim Bullard

    • happy valleyMEMBER

      Jim needs to talk to someone? Government debt has worked a charm for the 0.1% and they’re all that count, aren’t they?

      • Yes – Someone needs to talk to Jim.

        Government debt is absolutely critical to the operation of a privatised public monetary system.

        All those precious private banks would be out of a job without “government debt” adding substance to their industrial fraud.

        Just imagine if instead of selling interest bearing bonds to private banks who then sell them to the Central Bank for a tidy profit the government simply:

        1. Sold a 0% bond to the Central Bank who then credited the governments central bank account. No real need to sell the bond but it might help simple folk who insist that the Central Bank “gets something” for its accounting entries. A bit of paper called Bond might do the trick.

        2. The government then paid for the services it requires or made welfare payments by electronic transfer to accounts held by everyone at the Central Bank.

        3. People paid their taxes by transfers from their central bank account to the government central bank account.

        Not much need for private banks in the above model.

        Banks would of course still have their “reserve” accounts at the Central Bank but the contents would only be funds that people with a real choice have voluntarily decided to transfer to them. Needless to say there would be no public guarantee on investments in private banks.

        • Jim's Central Banking


          We need a political party with the slogan “Make Banks Sh!t Themselves” and your suggestions could be the entire ticket.

      • Sure the administration is skewed towards financial elites and C-corps, what do you think all these decades of libertarian corporatism was all about, but that does not mean the same potential could not be re-tasked too deal with the dramas the last 40ish odd years has wrought.

        But yeah I know some prefer austerity and how that never works ….

  3. So, you can print USD and to a lesser extent GBP, EUR and seemingly AUD and the economics textbook doesn’t hold truth.

    That hyperinflation thing only works with sh1thole currencies. In countries with a rule of law it means the solution.

      • happy valleyMEMBER

        I think that she could be ideal for Reus – she’s lively, she’s not social distancing and she’s not in to moral superiority.

      • She’s a bit old for Reusa. He likes them in prime fertility years. But I am sure he admires the size of her balls.

    • reusachtigeMEMBER

      Mig’s right, I love her! Yes she’s aging a bit but hell yeah still. I’d even have a long term relationship with her, maybe even until the sun comes up! She’s awesome, and I wouldn’t want to socially distance myself from her one bit.

  4. Untersberg Mountain

    Interesting insight into migrant entitlement mentality

    “All students who come to Australia in their first year have to give a warranty that they are able to support themselves for the first 12 months,” Mr Morrison said last month.

    “[Morrison] They’re not held in Australia compulsorily … there is the alternative for them to return to their home countries.”

    Natasha said visitors to India would be treated differently.

    “In my culture we treat guests as gods, that’s what we have been taught all our lives,” she said.

    To which you could say that you missed all the glowing media reports of the Indian Government handing out cash to Australians caught in India and treating them so nicely, or if you are inclined to get to the point then simply: if you don’t like it here GTFO and back to your superior culture. Oh, that’s right:

    Family shame and an arranged marriage await Natasha if she returns to India without finishing her university degree

    She is not against the practice of arranged marriages, but Natasha, who is in her mid-20s, says her family will have less power to choose her husband as she grows older and gains more independence.

    “You never know who you’re going to end up with,” she said.

    You wot? So not all roses? And that is before we get to the real gem of Indian culture: the rampant violence against women that you don’t hear about in DomainFax/SBS/ABC because the ‘woke’ rabid overfed women of privilege who rule those joints are too obsessed with pinning everything on wh!te males, or just wishing for them to be dead.

    • That article is pretty old consodering the 24hr news cycle, we all already had a good whinge when it was first published. Next time you want to have a rant, probably helps to find a more recent article.

      • PalimpsestMEMBER

        What an ageist comment. For some of us, we need time for our creative responses to percolate through the brain before emerging into daylight.

        • I don’t think it’s ageist to peg someone for bringing out a two week old article just to continue their personal campaign against Australian govt funded media and immigrants. There is nothing new provided in that rant, it has all been said, I think it’s quite ridiculous to post that article and act like it is a genuine “I just read this and here’s my thoughts”. I could be wrong but by going on the recent posting history of this person they’re trawlimg through news archives to find any article they can rant at. If it genuinely took two weeks to put those thoughts together it probably wasn’t worth it, especially considering it’s almost a complete collection and reprinting of all the comments made here when that story was first published.

          • reusachtigeMEMBER

            Yep. It’s like clutching at old decayed straws! “They tuuk our jerbs, two weeks ago”…

    • You say we don’t hear about violence against women in India via the ABC? Yet when I search India & Women on ABC see how many violence agaibst women stories come up: women&page=1&configure[getRankingInfo]=true&configure[clickAnalytics]=true&configure[userToken]=anonymous-c890ba9a-bcd9-4197-b423-ce24d8f10896&configure[analytics]=true

      Your rant makes no sense

      (Link may not work but pretty easy to search for yourself)

    • migtronixMEMBER

      Ouch. Well except for the $11 G&T, that was cheap.

      Also I feel the ISO timestamp remark…

    • Lol, I worked with nutcases like that dude in the first video for 11 years. I’m just exhausted watching it. I prefer to slow down, take my time to work on 1 thing at a time but these people are obsessive multitaskers who seem to have a new trend to follow every week. Drives me crazy.

  5. Carrillo’s rich prose told stories from the Cuban American diaspora: the English embroidered with Spanish. He was known to have fled Cuba with his family as a boy, to Spain and then to Michigan. His community did not have grandfathers, he told Hispanic students at a college in Florida. It had abuelitos.
    But after the writer died in April this year, members of his community came forward with some jarring information about his personal story. His original name was Herman Glenn Carroll and he was from Detroit, where his family knew him as Glenn. No one in his family was Latino, they said.

    • drsmithyMEMBER


      Yes, IT is an industry lauded and respected for its ability to deliver outcomes on-time, under-budget and in excess of expectations.

  6. Chinese legislation on Hong Kong passed. One brave soul voted against the motion. Not a good career move but that gets my respect.
    “The National People’s Congress voted 2,878 to 1 in favour of the decision to empower its standing committee to draft the legislation, with six abstentions.“